Phoenix22
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Posts posted by Phoenix22
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When are theater owners not worried? I feel like they have been like that for years, they should get brave in the Cinemacon meetings and ask the studios to make better films.
They can't depend month after month to hope to have blockbusters to push their gains, also Barbie and Oppenheimer brought lots of money in July and August, then Taylor and FNAF in October/November and the 2023 Box Office already outgrossed in October the total of 2022 and there's still some gas left in the tank, of course it's not in the levels of pre-covid but maybe it will never be with the relase of Disney+ and Max in 2019-20, the industry changed but they don't maybe they need to adapt and create a new service or subscription to disrupt the market and get rich again.
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This will be lucky if it reaches $80M WW, still not bad for a tour that was not really worlwide (Europe and NA) vs Eras which was 3x dates and it includes Asia and Latam.
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When will they release the presale? Right before the month?
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I'm from Mexico and awareness of the film is barely non-exist and there hasn't been a lot of promotion, without the cast being able to promote this (and mostly because there's a few mexican actors) the movie feels screwed, I checked some local theaters in mexico city where I live and there's less tickets sold than what Shazam 2 did and that was a low bar, the only hope is that the WOM is good and that there's not a lot of competition now since Barbenhimer was a month ago and Haunted Mansion flopped, Meg 2 did what it had to be done last week and this weekend well the Turtles weren't a big property here.
If Shazam 2 opened to $65.6M WW I think that BB could be aiming to $48M - $55M OW WW, with hopes to at least match what Shazam 2 did and $150M as the ceiling.
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Wow, big W for Blue Beetle tbh:
I've not seen this level of support from communities since Black Panther and Wonder Woman, there was not this kind of conversation with Shang-Chi and asian representation afaik.
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Wow from $12M - $17M to $30M is a success! Imagine if this does better than Shazam, maybe not in OW but it could in the overall DOM/WW box office, honestly the film is good and since it's part of the new DCU people could be interested unlike Shazam that was deadweight by now and a boring/generic film, and tbh Blue Beetle is more cooler/interesting than Shazam as a character.
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Watch this one have better legs than Shazam (less competition and better film) and also finding a market in Latinamerica and Asia, not being hopeful but I could see it hitting $140M - $170M, with $200M as the ceiling.
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They only have the budget and resources to promote one movie at a time.
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So I got the chance to see this one last night, I'm mexican and let me tell you that Angel Manuel really captured so well the mexicanity in the film, it felt like a mexican movie and there's a lot of cultural references that it honestly felt good to see your culture being mentioned and referenced so well.
So the movie is cool, way better than both Shazam films, Black Adam, BOP, WW84, SS, and even Aquaman (in some ways, not in scale and epic final fight, but way better in the characters and script), this didn't had cringe/forced lines or moments like The Flash had here and there.
It doesn't have any reference to the Snyderverse (like Shazam or Black Adam) and neither to the Gunnverse (TSS, Peacemaker) and the film that reminded me the most was Spider-man (2002) with the family bit, the origin story and whatever. It's also very lore heavy in the blue beetle DC Comics front. Also a little bit like Coco because but reflect so well the family dynamics of a mexican family and this one has strong supporting actors like Uncle Rudy, Nana (Grandma) and his father.
Overall it was great and people clapped and cheered in the end, there's two post credits scenes, and this was my favorite vs all the latest offerings of DC, there's a cool battle in the end and I really could see why James Gunn saved this one for his universe, the trailers do not make this justice; I could see this doing well in Latin America and some Asian markets, also maybe latinos could show up in the US, not I don't know about Europe.
Can't wait for you guys to see this one because I have a lot of questions and things I want to exchange and also touch on the topics that this film does.
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After The Flash debacle, I really don't know what to expect for this one, I guess that the latin audience factor could push it to gross slightly more than Shazam 2 but that's not a win, it needs at least $240M to break even and right now that sounds like an uphill battle...
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I feel like this film had several problems, this one should have come out way before JL, like in 2014 or 2015 and be a real origins story with a Flash-focused plot and then build on to that for JL. Also while Ezra is a good actor, I never liked him as Barry (neither Gal or Jason for their DC roles but that's for another day). They were not traditionally cute for the GA to push for them. A Flash origins (closing chapter?) film this late is just bonekiller and then if they already said that the DCEU is dead weight well... what's the point then? In that case they could have done an Elseworlds film like The Batman and I feel like it could have been bigger and better than what we have now, it's too late to save the film , good thing is that at least it seems to be good.
Good luck to Aquaman 2 because at least Gunn has said that Blue Beetle will be the first DCU character and that could help a bit and has added value for the character because you can invest your time/attention to him unlike Flash or Aquaman, and let's not talk about Shazam.
Black Adam got lucky that they hadn't announced the reshuffle and that Dwayne was saying over and over that this was the start of something and even I thought that they were going to make Black Adam the main villain and have a WW3 stolyline...
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If it manages to hit $500M that would be ok considering all the setbacks that it has (Ezra, dead universe, development hell) and that would be break even number.
It had a special premiere for influencers this monday here in mexico city and so far the responses are that it's good and entertaining, nothing in the sense of GotG3 or ATSV but also not abismally bad like AM3 or Shazam 2, and definetly better responses than Transformers.
Elemental is getting released the next week so this week the talk will be Flash. Actually Elemental is getting released until July in several european markets and until august in Japan so these two next weekends the Flash has a free highway to get as much as possible.
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6 hours ago, raegr said:
If 155-165M WW opening holds true, this might struggle to cross 400M at the box office. That would be an unmitigated disaster.
Not sure, Black Adam opened to $140M WW and managed to hit $393M and that was without China and with worse reviews than Flash and also without any JL member; let's say that it opens to $160M WW then with the 2.8x legs of BA it does $448M.
I'll say:
OW: $80M
DOM: $195M
WW: $320M
Total: $515M
And that would be enough to just break even which at least it won't make them lose money after PVOD and home media and streaming rights, probably it could make a cute profit of around $50M - $70M in the end.
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Oh wow it actually went up! It was 71% with 119 reviews and now 72% with 130 and that 97% verified is promising...
Let's see what's the buzz tomorrow...
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The last hope they have is the red carpet with the cast on Monday and the early access screenings that day that could led up to more hype and WOM.
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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:
Rise of the Beasts 3.1
The Flash 3.4
Bad start for both in Letterboxd.
Well that would be the second best rating for a DCEU film there (TSS has 3.6 then it's WW and The Flash with 3.4) so it's not that bad.
Kinda surprised for those numbers that Transformers managed to hit, makes me believe that a final push for Flash could come after the EA screenings on monday with more hype and GA talking openly if the films is good or not.
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I'm sad for the franchise, do you guys think that this will be the final nail in the franchise? Like I know there's the videogame coming but I feel like a good series on D+ could bring new life with a new protagonist because I feel like Harrison was the one that ended up dragging the franchise.
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8 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
Ant-Man 3 was under 50%
Super Mario is 59%
Fast X is 55%
Transformers is 55%
73% looks to be good in comparison to a lot of other blockbusters released so far this year. Obviously Spiderverse is near perfect.
This, people kept saying that the score will go lower since it debuted and it had a 69% and it has only increased with 100 reviews now, must films end with around 300 reviews so theres still 2/3 of the path to go, but I doubt it will go lower than 55%
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I just want to know if this is really bad or good for entertaining purposes (for example Fast X was at least fun and entertaining), also I have to wonder why they took 15 years to make this one and then go the route of The Last Jedi - TROS in the way that it seems like they dismissed that character development (Marriage, having a song) and going back to him being divorced and his son ignored on the film (I've not read spoilers but they have mentioned that the son is not on film and that they mention a reason).
Also I wonder if this would be the end of the franchise? Since the rumors said that the D+ series was scrapped and the videogame that it seems like it's coming up at least not before Summer 2025?
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Yeah this one is moving to summer either July or August and that's a generous estimate, if they are still working in the second act and they still need to record lines and with the current strike then there's no way they're ready to release this in 9 months.
It's better if they take their time for this one.
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1 hour ago, thajdikt said:
Okay this clip right here is bad, not the actual clip that looks awesome but the VFX is making it look like a PS3 game. I don´t mind bad VFX, but this is rough. On the other hand Sasha looks absolute perfect for the role. Can´t wait to watch her in this.
I think it looks ok, not the worst I've seen (Moon Knight, Thor 4) but definitely not even on the level of Black Adam (Shazam 2 had some wonky CGI scenes), I guess this is the problem of also relying on too much green screen and VFX sets vs like for example The Batman, GotG3 or TSS which had a lot of practical sets and costumes/makeup.
Also the original user who posted the video used the RebelMoon # and also the RTSV name so who knows if this is from the first screenings or the last cut and the video is zoomed (since it's missing parts of both sides).
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24 minutes ago, El Gato said:
So looking at the data being posted here, so far Flash is looking like a disappointment? That sucks, DC needs a win after the last 5 years worth of disappointments.
Now I’m extremely worried about Blue Beetle, if Flash is struggling, can’t imagine he’ll do any better, even with the Latino angle going for it. When do films usually start presales? Need to prepare for the worst when it comes to Blue Beetle (he’s my fav DC character, other than Raven).
I mean Joker did $1.1B in 2019 and The Batman $771M and #7 WW last year so not exactly 5 years of bombs.
I still have hope for the data to end up with previews of $12.5M and OW of $75M - $85M, Father's day could give it an extra bump but then the next weekend the drop could be bigger because of this extra factor.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Could it be because of the aquababy plot? Or because they want to sustain the suspense on to how this wraps/ends the DCEU? Also there's the Amber factor so I guess that they don't want users fighting in social media about if she's or not in the film and whatsoever so as long as they can keep the secret maybe it's good for them.
And so far for Mexico City there has not been a press/fan screening announced, we had a few ones earlier for Flash and for Blue Beetle the director and Peter Safran came up for one but this time not a blip (so far) from WB or Momoa/Wan, the movie releases here in Dec 20th.