tarabeesley
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Posts posted by tarabeesley
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1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:
Wednesday
- The Boy and The Heron - ¥13.55M / ¥563.36M
- Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire - ¥10.20M / ¥697.39M
What do you think the gross will be for The Boy and the Heron after Sunday? How is it holding?
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16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
2024 QF Crossed All-Time Record of 2021 QF (¥822M)
¥823M / 20.6M admits (1.358M Shows) & counting...
Top 5 Titles (THU-SAT)
1. The Boy and The Heron - ¥387M
2. GxK: The New Empire - ¥228M
3. Kung Fu Panda 4 - ¥47.618M
4. Dwelling By The West Lake - ¥42.749M
5. The Victims ! - ¥37.996M
How much did The Boy and the Heron make so far today in China? Is it in line with expectations?
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Given projections I'd say 300 Million plus is likely worldwide making it the 5th highest grossing Japanese film of all time behind Suzume and in front of The First Slam Dunk.
Miyazaki seems to want to make another film and if he does the budget will be supplemented by this.
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14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Maoyan Final Forecast is ¥938M // $129.7M C.E.R.
Taopiaopiao Final Forecast is ¥907M // $125.4M C.E.R.
Adj to GvK Forex - $143.42M Maoyan // $138.68M Taopiaopiao.
Amazing! Thanks for updates. Are they increasing theater counts because it is doing so well? Is it muscling out G x K? Also do we have any big releases coming up at the weekend or next week that might challenge its number one position?
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36 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:
Not expecting much in the way of legs eh?
Yes to say it'll gross 75 - 79 mil opening but 105 mil overall seems very odd.
Suzume had a 50 mil opening and ended up with 112 overall.
I would expect if Heron grosses 75 mil it could gross up to 140 to 150 mil overall.
Those predictions are AI generated?
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24 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
¥351M as of 21:00
Listing "The Boy and The Heron" Records
— Biggest Single Day BO for Qingming Festival Release, defeating "Ready Player One" (¥164M) recorded back in 2018!
— Biggest Single Day BO for Imported Animation, defeating "Frozen II" (¥167M) recorded back in Nov 2019!
— Biggest Single Day BO for Japanese Film, defeating "Suzume" (¥153M) recorded back in March 2023!
So that's 48 m so far already after two days?! How can it be that much? Wow.
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45 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
This take is horrible. Heron just didn't get 4D Release (Can't talk about Screen X since -1 only got Screen X release). It got the same release pattern like Demon Slayer and JJK (though both of them didn't have Dolby at start)
Reception is mixed in Japan and that's needed to be accepted. Nothing to do with screen counts.
Just to point out Heron was the 1st Studio Ghibli film to release in IMAX and Dolby where Heron broke IMAX record of Demon Slayer.
France, the UK, Italy, Spain and the USA and some others all increased their screen counts after the first week of release. That's all I'm saying.
How is this a horrible take when it is factually correct?
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8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Yeah
Biggest Single Day BO for an Imported Animation (Prev Record - ¥167.55M by Frozen II)
Suzume did ¥152.98M, Highest among Japanese Animation
It seems like almost all countries except Japan underestimated 'The Boy and the Heron' in terms of initial screen counts... most countries increased them in the next week after opening. I wonder why?
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Would a 28 million single day gross for a non-Chinese animation in China be some sort of record?
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17 minutes ago, fmpro said:
maoyan has updated its projections to 126 mill $ total
How can you see these? Can you send a website link please?
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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:
yes Boy & Heron make that number in just 6 hours. So it's actually more like previews (though local industry still call things like this OD).
It's the first import movie hitting ¥100M OD since FX... third best OD for import animated movies behind Despicable Me 3, Kong Fu Panda 3.
THU-FRI-SAT are national holidays (SUN this time is a workday). It can try the daily record for a import animated movie held by Frozen 2 with ¥167.55M. Then:
- ¥337M lifetime gross to beat North America
- ¥433M lifetime gross to beat Japan
I hope it can challenge US+CANADA+JAPAN (China finally beat The US Japan Alliance somehow)
It seems like a 75 - 90 million dollar 5 day opening is possible. Absolutely astonishing numbers. If it does manage something in this range, its final gross could far surpass any predictions.
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10 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
a reminder, today's showtimes start from 6pm for Boy and the Heron.
So it only showed for 6 hours and still made that huge opening amount?
How does it compare to the openings of other recent animated films?
I find the Chinese box office fascinating since it exploded about 10 years ago.
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7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
The Boy and The Heron
9.4 Taopiaopiao
9.0 Maoyan
8.0 Douban
I'd imagine those are good then compared to Slam Dunk and Suzume?
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
Biggest OD for a Japanese Film! taking down "Suzume" (¥94.96M)!!!
So if WOM is good it could easily gross over 100 million dollars... Will they recalculate their predictions for the final gross then?
What about the total opening numbers over the first 5 days?
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I wonder if we can call the film a blockbuster yet? Or shall we wait for the China release?
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14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Bulletproofsqui is a local Analyst (btw they are on the forum) while TTP/Maoyan are Ticketing Platform Forecast - Everyone has their own way of measuring the projections like WOM, Pre-sales Pace, Shows or any trend on web or anything
Bulletproofsqui does good predictions - Here is their Prediction vs Results to give rough idea on how accurate are their prediction
Thank you for being so helpful with my questions! 😊 I'd love to see Heron make a lot of money in China. We'll see.
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17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Local Analyst expecting ¥1000M &$138M - Making Heron the Highest Grossing Imported Film of the Year in China!!
Are their predictions often good or overinflated? And why is this so much more than the other forecasts?
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
China
Ticketing Platform "Maoyan" is going with ¥586M / $81M Final Forecast. Heron has crossed Slam Dunk OD PS (which did $96M in China)
Does this mean Heron has the highest OD PS in history for a Japanese film in China? Higher than Suzume?
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8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
"Spirited Away" ranked 5th among all-time *best* rated work in Douban Top 250 with 9.4⭐. Heron is not a work as equivalent of SA - so its sure for Heron to have higher % of Final in 5-Days Debut.
I wonder what the likelihood of TBATH overperforming in China is since it overperformed in practically every other jurisdiction outside of Asia...
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2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Sunday is a workday while Saturday will perform like Sunday
Conservative Forecast is better for time being - Let's wait and watch - If numbers holds per forecast then final Projection will improve
If it can make 43 million in 3 days it will by a very large margin be the highest amount a Ghibli film ever made in 3 days and the largest number of people seeing one at the cinema in a short amount of time.
The largest Ghibli opening was Spirited Away's release in China where it made about 25 mil.
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10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
How Do You Live? (The Boy and The Heron)
OD / Final Forecast
@Maoyan
Wednesday - ¥92.185M (+17.10%)
Thursday - ¥125M (+16.82%)
Friday - ¥94.029M
Final - ¥586M / $81M
@Taopiaopiao
Wednesday - ¥90.198M (+11.92%)
Thursday - ¥121M (+10.00%)
Friday - ¥103M
Final - ¥573M / $79M
Do these seem a bit odd? It making 43 million approx in 3 days according to Maoyan but only 81 million for its entire run?
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9 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
March 2024
Box Office - ¥2,788M (+46.17% Y/Y)
Admission - 66,949,600 (+36.46% Y/Y)
Domestic Films - ¥1,850M (+37.68% Y/Y)
The Boy and The Heron (Forecast)
@Maoyan
Wednesday - ¥78.723M (+11.74%)
Thursday - ¥107M
@Taopiaopiao
Wednesday - ¥80.593M (+8.19%)
Thursday - ¥110M
So the 5-day opening could easily exceed 40 million and might even get to 50? It'll be interesting to see..
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25 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Sorry (I guess I sounded aggressive).
Well, can't help. If Heron was a solo and non-Holidays Release - it would easily have closed to 200K Shows but since it's releasing on holiday with other works so it's about fair play - one with more numbers will start to have edge over one with poorer numbers -
Heron WED 18:00 itself isn't a full day play and its just a warm up session ahead of Qingming Festival starting on next days (3-Days in Total and Sunday will be workday)
Atleast a very good positive sign is improved Douban Score with previews lifting it from 7.6 to 8.0 - so maybe (even a little) looking into a good future ahead.
Hopefully let's wait and watch -
Interesting that Suzume only has a 7.2 rating on Douban and yet it made about 110 million dollars in China. I guess there isn't always a direct correlation between the audience rating and box office gross?
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17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Film opens on 18:00 - how much shows you can add in 6 hours? Ofc, Heron will have less shows than GxK OD (which open on 09:00). Heron Day 2 Shows > Day 1 Shows
Heron (Shows Live Count)
Day 1 - 46K Shows (Prime Time - 31K Shows)
Day 2 - 72K Shows (Prime Time - 17K Shows)
I'm still learning about all this
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by tarabeesley
Comscore is reporting that Heron has made $273,175,118 so far.
https://imgur.com/a/orwhTPl