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tidbit

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    Wednesday The Force Awakens Estimates - 28M (Rth) | 27.2 - 27.9 (DHD)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    So, we expect TFA to be at least ~740M by the end of it's 3rd weekend.

    Avengers made $166M after it's 3rd weekend (or 26.6% of it's final)

    Jurassic World made $152M after it's 3rd weekend (23.3%)
    Dark Knight made $137M after it's 3rd weekend (25.8%)

     

    This movie is walking that thin line in the comparison with those movies and so much depends on what January legs it has (including this weekend).  I'm quite sure 950M is the floor for this movie as I wouldn't say the legs of the above movies were particularly great.

     

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

    Just finished Empire and I can't decide whether it or A New Hope was better. Definitely another 10/10. Since I'm doing machete order I guess Phantom Menace is next. I know they say to skip it but I want to at least give it a shot.  Very curious to see if it's as bad as they say it is. 

     

    I gotta go with ANH.  Just so much magic... However, from a craft perspective, ESB is a MUCH better movie.  What I love so much about ESB is that it feels to me like Han's movie.  He just so friggen owns every scene. On Hoth, in the asteroids, and on Bespin.  He had the full Han swagger going.

    • Like 2

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

    The funny thing here, is that about 6 months ago, most of us would have been really happy with this result....for it's whole run.  

     

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $544,573,329    49.9%
    + Foreign:  $546,000,000    50.1%
    = Worldwide:  $1,090,573,329  

     

    It is just freaking eerie how closely domestic and foreign are tracking to each other...

    • Like 2

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

    Lucas wanted to sell his assets to a company that was familiar with protecting a family legacy. He wanted a place where Lucasfilm would fit in (to some degree) and also retain some autonomy. That's why he chose Disney, and why he didn't want to do a bidding war or anything. Money wasn't particularly high on his list of concerns.

     

    As someone else said, I'm quite sure Pixar is what sealed the deal.  George knew Ed Catmull & John Lassiter very well.  Pixar, of source started, as the computer division of LucasFilm and was famously sold to Steve Jobs for a pittance.  I'm sure he spoke with those guys and they've been very public about how great the marriage to disney has been for them. 

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

    Hopefully we get at least $59.7m today for $500m in 9 days. 

     

    I'm thinking it misses that unfortunately.  It would be cool to have $500M in 9 days and $550 in 10 (9 major milestones in 10 days), but I'm thinking it's going to be more like $500M in 10 days and $550M in 11.  That's when our insane line drops of 7 major milestones ($100M - $400M) occurring in 8 days comes to an end.  


    What's unbelievably amazing is that the movie didn't barely squeak by any of these milestones to this point.  In fact, it missed the $250M mark by less than ~2.1M.  Otherwise, it's beaten the mark by at least ~14M for each record.

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, tokila said:

     

    Ya, if told people sunday that it would do 45-50 on Cmas there would oh - sh!t meltdowns. Its simply a case of moving goal post.

     

    Its started with, we must beat JW, Avatar in play.

    Then it was JW locked, Avatar good shot.

    Then it was Avatar locked, 850 mil in play 

    Then it was 850 mil locked, 1 bil in play

    People were ready to movie it to 1 bil locked if it did over 160mil this weekend.



    This is what I care about. ~If we were to ~only have 47-48M, what does that mean for a likelihood of hitting 1B domestic?   Up until today, every single number from day 1 (except maybe Saturday) we've been blown away by the holds.  And even after Monday, folks were saying 1B was in play.

    • Like 1

    STAR WARS TFA MONDAY ACTUAL - 40.1M, THE FORCE IS STRONGER THAN AVATAR! (pg48)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by tidbit

    28 minutes ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said:

     

    No doubt.  My favorite runs that I have been able to follow closely:

     

    1. The Force Awakens

    2. Titanic

    3. Avatar

     

    In a class of their own since I've been following.

     

    I remember the countdown to Shrek 2 going below 1M dailies was pretty amazing for an animated movie back in the day

    Can someone post reasonable dailies through Sunday?  I see > 150M for the weekend seems reasonable, but I'm not quite so sure of Tues-Thursday expectations.

    Pretty amazing to have
    Day 1 (Fri) > 100M

    Day 2 (Sat) > 150M

    Day 3 (Sun) > 200M
    Day 4 (Mon) > 250M
    Day 5 (Tue) > 300M

    Day 6 (Wed) > 350M 

    Obviously it ends there (it'll be close on day 6), but a heck of a run of milestones on a daily basis

    • Like 1

    AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by tidbit

    And the first was a novelty unlike any film before it.

     

    I really missed on this myself.  TA was THE culmination of Marvel's cinematic designs, all the way back to Iron Man 1.  Getting this "All Star" game onto the big screen was sort of the "original Dream Team".  I don't know that there is any comparable movie in cinematic history... Certainly, not anywhere near this scale.

    Wednesday (7/25/12) Numbers: TDKR @ $13.77m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by tidbit

    Actually looking at numbersDays 1-7 (1 week)Hunger Games 67.3 | DH2 91.1 | TDKR 75.5117.7 | 133.5 | 120.7152.5 | 169.2 | 160.9163.4 | 187.2 | 180.3173.7 | 202.6 | 198.2181.8 | 214.9 | 212.0So its beating THG's pace as well as quickly catching up to DH2 . The deficit on Day 1 was 15, by Sunday it was 9 and now its just 3. By the end of this weekend, it will catch up and go beyond DH2 which means 400 is a lock, now if it also makes more than THG in the 2nd weekend, the 450 is nearly a lock.

    Uhhh....Didn't Hunger Games have this little thing called school which deflated it's weekdays vs TDKR having summer days? I'm not saying it won't go past 400M and THG, but using Mon-Wed as any metric seems wrong. I know you're trying to do a whole week with assumed numbers for today, but giving the day-by-day deficit is misleading.
    • Like 5

    7/20-22 Weekend Actuals TDKR 160,887,295

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Is there anything in summer 2013 that has a shot at the OW record?It's really a shame. Once Christmas arrives this year and it's been confirmed that BD2 and TH couldn't break out we'll have to wait until November 2013 before anything even has a slight chance at breaking it...

    Well deserved IMO. That's what happens when you destroy an OW by close to $40M.

    TDKR Weekend: $160.89M - #3 ALL TIME HIGHEST OW

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    From Bloomberg:

    Ticket sales for Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises” came in below projections made before a shooting at a premiere of the movie killed 12 people in Aurora, Colorado, according to an analyst.

    The movie earned in the range of $155 million to $165 million, estimates Jeff Bock, an analyst for Exhibitor Relations Co. Before the violence at the Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK) theater, it was expected to generate $170 million to $198 million in its first three days, the estimates of researchers Fizziology and Boxoffice.com.

    That would still place the film among the top five weekend openings ever, according to Box Office Mojo, an online publication tracking ticket sales. The first in the series, “The Dark Knight,” with $158.4 million in opening weekend sales, is ranked third after “Marvel’s The Avengers” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,” the site says.

    Some families may have made other plans after the shooting, “and the casual fan may have turned away as well,” Bock said. “Everybody’s very mindful of it.”

    Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner Inc. (TWX), and other Hollywood studios aren’t reporting official sales figures, with some issuing statements citing sensitivity to the victims. Studios typically report figures for weekend sales every Sunday. Warner, based in Burbank, California, also has curbed promotion of the movie, one of the year’s most anticipated.

    TDKR Weekend: $160.89M - #3 ALL TIME HIGHEST OW

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    For anyone that still cares, a lot of industry sources are being asked not to cite the tragic shooting when analyzing the lower-than-expected box office take for the weekend (though I doubt everyone will oblige that -- we, however, will). No one will ever know how much of an effect it had exactly, but its pretty clear that there was some at least. Just food for thought before making too many assumptions about the film's performance. This is unprecedented territory for everyone.

    Again, for anyone who still cares. If this weekend taught us anything, its how utterly insignificant box office grosses are compared to human life.

    I understand the desire to be respectful of the families, but I don't see how analysts can reasonably agree... I don't think it's their place to try and play psychologists and throw out numbers that they aren't qualified to support for how it affected it, but at the same time, it's completely unavoidable. I don't think you'd be doing your job to ignore it and to how can you make arguments about how it did without referencing the incident.
    • Like 1

    Thursday Numbers (Ted - 8M; Brave - 5M; Magic Mike - 4.5M; Katy Perry - 3M)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by tidbit

    Actuals so far: Only Magic Mike missing

    1 The Amazing Spider-Man $15,814,761 -32% 4,318 -- $3,663 $75,017,570 0 Sony / Columbia

    2 Ted (2012) $8,032,720 0% 3,239 -- $2,480 $87,647,345 1 Universal

    3 Brave $4,999,227 -22% 3,966 -198 $1,261 $154,356,971 2 Disney

    4 Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D $3,100,000 -- 2,730 -- $1,136 $3,100,000 0 Paramount

    5 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $1,830,000 -22% 3,715 -205 $493 $188,319,929 4 Paramount / DreamWorks

    6 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter $596,971 -28% 2,757 -351 $217 $32,106,376 2 Fox

    7 People Like Us $546,689 -45% 2,055 -- $266 $6,996,367 1 Disney

    8 Marvel's The Avengers $477,208 -34% 1,352 -878 $353 $608,959,760 9 Disney

    9 Prometheus $428,794 -33% 1,384 -1478 $310 $120,574,774 4 Fox

    LIMITED (100 — 999)

    # TITLE THU, JUL. 5 2012 LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.

    1 Moonrise Kingdom $847,076 -38% 854 459 $992 $22,261,794 6 Focus

    2 That's My Boy $195,442 3% 822 -2208 $238 $35,479,177 3 Sony / Columbia

    ID4(Wednesday) Numbers ASM($23.4M)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    TITLE STUDIO SITES GROSS AVG TOTAL

    1

    THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN Sony · 4318 · $23,000,000 · $5,327 · $59,000,000

    2

    TED UNIVERSAL · 3239 · $8,000,000 · $2,470 · $79,500,000

    3

    BRAVE WALT DISNEY · 4164 · $6,500,000 · $1,561 · $149,500,000

    4

    MADEA'S WITNESS PROTECTION LIONSGATE · 2161 · $3,125,000 · $1,446 · $33,500,000

    5

    MAGIC MIKE WARNER BROS. · 2930 · $3,000,000 · $1,024 · $52,500,000

    6

    MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTED Paramount · 3715 · $2,500,000 · $673 · $186,500,000

    7

    MOONRISE KINGDOM FOCUS FEAURES · 854 · $1,500,000 · $1,756 · $21,500,000

    8

    PEOPLE LIKE US WALT DISNEY · 2055 · $1,000,000 · $487 · $6,500,000

    9

    ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER FOX · 3109 · $850,000 · $273 · $31,500,000

    10

    THE AVENGERS WALT DISNEY · 1757 · $800,000 · $455 · $608,500,000

    Weekend Actuals 6/29-7/1

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I wonder with a soft drop if TA can pass SWATH, MK, & Prometheus? Too much too ask given this weeks % drop? And probably continued harsher theater drops ( especially if what discussion and my local theater count looks like is nationwide)

    Wednesday's top movies: BRAVE - $6.7M Mad3-2.4M Abe-1.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    ERC posted Top 10 estimates! http://www.ercboxoffice.com/index.php?section=movies&subsection=top10_details1BRAVESTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWALT DISNEY PG 4164 1 $6,750,000 $1,621 $91,073,5942MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTEDSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALParamount PG 3920 3 $2,400,000 $612 $165,736,0373ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTERSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFOX R 3108 1 $1,475,000 $475 $21,781,9744PROMETHEUSSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFox R 2862 3 $1,100,000 $384 $112,352,3505THAT'S MY BOYSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALSONY R 3030 2 $1,000,000 $330 $31,360,7946SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMANSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALUNIVERSAL PG-13 2919 4 $925,000 $317 $140,328,3507ROCK OF AGESSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWARNER BROS. PG-13 3470 2 $850,000 $245 $31,393,6218THE AVENGERSSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWALT DISNEY PG-13 2230 8 $825,000 $370 $601,250,4429MEN IN BLACK 3STUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALSONY PG-13 2462 5 $750,000 $305 $166,015,70710MOONRISE KINGDOMSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFOCUS FEAURES PG-13 395 5 $450,000 $1,139 $13,000,000

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