tidbit

So, we expect TFA to be at least ~740M by the end of it's 3rd weekend. Avengers made $166M after it's 3rd weekend (or 26.6% of it's final) Jurassic World made $152M after it's 3rd weekend (23.3%) Dark Knight made $137M after it's 3rd weekend (25.8%) This movie is walking that thin line in the comparison with those movies and so much depends on what January legs it has (including this weekend). I'm quite sure 950M is the floor for this movie as I wouldn't say the legs of the above movies were particularly great.

I gotta go with ANH. Just so much magic... However, from a craft perspective, ESB is a MUCH better movie. What I love so much about ESB is that it feels to me like Han's movie. He just so friggen owns every scene. On Hoth, in the asteroids, and on Bespin. He had the full Han swagger going.

It is just freaking eerie how closely domestic and foreign are tracking to each other...

As someone else said, I'm quite sure Pixar is what sealed the deal. George knew Ed Catmull & John Lassiter very well. Pixar, of source started, as the computer division of LucasFilm and was famously sold to Steve Jobs for a pittance. I'm sure he spoke with those guys and they've been very public about how great the marriage to disney has been for them.

I'm thinking it misses that unfortunately. It would be cool to have $500M in 9 days and $550 in 10 (9 major milestones in 10 days), but I'm thinking it's going to be more like $500M in 10 days and $550M in 11. That's when our insane line drops of 7 major milestones ($100M - $400M) occurring in 8 days comes to an end. What's unbelievably amazing is that the movie didn't barely squeak by any of these milestones to this point. In fact, it missed the $250M mark by less than ~2.1M. Otherwise, it's beaten the mark by at least ~14M for each record.

This is what I care about. ~If we were to ~only have 47-48M, what does that mean for a likelihood of hitting 1B domestic? Up until today, every single number from day 1 (except maybe Saturday) we've been blown away by the holds. And even after Monday, folks were saying 1B was in play.

I remember the countdown to Shrek 2 going below 1M dailies was pretty amazing for an animated movie back in the day Can someone post reasonable dailies through Sunday? I see > 150M for the weekend seems reasonable, but I'm not quite so sure of Tues-Thursday expectations. Pretty amazing to have Day 1 (Fri) > 100M Day 2 (Sat) > 150M Day 3 (Sun) > 200M Day 4 (Mon) > 250M Day 5 (Tue) > 300M Day 6 (Wed) > 350M Obviously it ends there (it'll be close on day 6), but a heck of a run of milestones on a daily basis

I really missed on this myself. TA was THE culmination of Marvel's cinematic designs, all the way back to Iron Man 1. Getting this "All Star" game onto the big screen was sort of the "original Dream Team". I don't know that there is any comparable movie in cinematic history... Certainly, not anywhere near this scale.

3.57M to go.... Is Friday more or less likely to reach 300M?

Uhhh....Didn't Hunger Games have this little thing called school which deflated it's weekdays vs TDKR having summer days? I'm not saying it won't go past 400M and THG, but using Mon-Wed as any metric seems wrong. I know you're trying to do a whole week with assumed numbers for today, but giving the day-by-day deficit is misleading.

Spidey continues to tumble...

hibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice TDKR's breakdown: Fri. - $75.7M, Sat. $44.9M, Sun. $40.2M

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice The official weekend total for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES: $160,887,295--3rd best all-time.

Well deserved IMO. That's what happens when you destroy an OW by close to $40M.

2 The Amazing Spider-Man $10,887,111 -69% 3,753 -565 $2,901 $228,611,425 3 Sony / Columbia

From Bloomberg: Ticket sales for Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises” came in below projections made before a shooting at a premiere of the movie killed 12 people in Aurora, Colorado, according to an analyst. The movie earned in the range of $155 million to $165 million, estimates Jeff Bock, an analyst for Exhibitor Relations Co. Before the violence at the Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK) theater, it was expected to generate $170 million to $198 million in its first three days, the estimates of researchers Fizziology and Boxoffice.com. That would still place the film among the top five weekend openings ever, according to Box Office Mojo, an online publication tracking ticket sales. The first in the series, “The Dark Knight,” with $158.4 million in opening weekend sales, is ranked third after “Marvel’s The Avengers” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,” the site says. Some families may have made other plans after the shooting, “and the casual fan may have turned away as well,” Bock said. “Everybody’s very mindful of it.” Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner Inc. (TWX), and other Hollywood studios aren’t reporting official sales figures, with some issuing statements citing sensitivity to the victims. Studios typically report figures for weekend sales every Sunday. Warner, based in Burbank, California, also has curbed promotion of the movie, one of the year’s most anticipated.

I understand the desire to be respectful of the families, but I don't see how analysts can reasonably agree... I don't think it's their place to try and play psychologists and throw out numbers that they aren't qualified to support for how it affected it, but at the same time, it's completely unavoidable. I don't think you'd be doing your job to ignore it and to how can you make arguments about how it did without referencing the incident.

Actuals so far: Only Magic Mike missing 1 The Amazing Spider-Man $15,814,761 -32% 4,318 -- $3,663 $75,017,570 0 Sony / Columbia 2 Ted (2012) $8,032,720 0% 3,239 -- $2,480 $87,647,345 1 Universal 3 Brave $4,999,227 -22% 3,966 -198 $1,261 $154,356,971 2 Disney 4 Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D $3,100,000 -- 2,730 -- $1,136 $3,100,000 0 Paramount 5 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $1,830,000 -22% 3,715 -205 $493 $188,319,929 4 Paramount / DreamWorks 6 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter $596,971 -28% 2,757 -351 $217 $32,106,376 2 Fox 7 People Like Us $546,689 -45% 2,055 -- $266 $6,996,367 1 Disney 8 Marvel's The Avengers $477,208 -34% 1,352 -878 $353 $608,959,760 9 Disney 9 Prometheus $428,794 -33% 1,384 -1478 $310 $120,574,774 4 Fox LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE THU, JUL. 5 2012 LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Moonrise Kingdom $847,076 -38% 854 459 $992 $22,261,794 6 Focus 2 That's My Boy $195,442 3% 822 -2208 $238 $35,479,177 3 Sony / Columbia

TITLE STUDIO SITES GROSS AVG TOTAL 1 THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN Sony · 4318 · $23,000,000 · $5,327 · $59,000,000 2 TED UNIVERSAL · 3239 · $8,000,000 · $2,470 · $79,500,000 3 BRAVE WALT DISNEY · 4164 · $6,500,000 · $1,561 · $149,500,000 4 MADEA'S WITNESS PROTECTION LIONSGATE · 2161 · $3,125,000 · $1,446 · $33,500,000 5 MAGIC MIKE WARNER BROS. · 2930 · $3,000,000 · $1,024 · $52,500,000 6 MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTED Paramount · 3715 · $2,500,000 · $673 · $186,500,000 7 MOONRISE KINGDOM FOCUS FEAURES · 854 · $1,500,000 · $1,756 · $21,500,000 8 PEOPLE LIKE US WALT DISNEY · 2055 · $1,000,000 · $487 · $6,500,000 9 ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER FOX · 3109 · $850,000 · $273 · $31,500,000 10 THE AVENGERS WALT DISNEY · 1757 · $800,000 · $455 · $608,500,000

I think I saw rth estimate it at 6.2M

I wonder with a soft drop if TA can pass SWATH, MK, & Prometheus? Too much too ask given this weeks % drop? And probably continued harsher theater drops ( especially if what discussion and my local theater count looks like is nationwide)

ERC posted Top 10 estimates! http://www.ercboxoffice.com/index.php?section=movies&subsection=top10_details1BRAVESTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWALT DISNEY PG 4164 1 $6,750,000 $1,621 $91,073,5942MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTEDSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALParamount PG 3920 3 $2,400,000 $612 $165,736,0373ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTERSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFOX R 3108 1 $1,475,000 $475 $21,781,9744PROMETHEUSSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFox R 2862 3 $1,100,000 $384 $112,352,3505THAT'S MY BOYSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALSONY R 3030 2 $1,000,000 $330 $31,360,7946SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMANSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALUNIVERSAL PG-13 2919 4 $925,000 $317 $140,328,3507ROCK OF AGESSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWARNER BROS. PG-13 3470 2 $850,000 $245 $31,393,6218THE AVENGERSSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALWALT DISNEY PG-13 2230 8 $825,000 $370 $601,250,4429MEN IN BLACK 3STUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALSONY PG-13 2462 5 $750,000 $305 $166,015,70710MOONRISE KINGDOMSTUDIO RATING THEATERS WEEK DAILY GROSS AVERAGE TOTALFOCUS FEAURES PG-13 395 5 $450,000 $1,139 $13,000,000

Rock of Ages $1,118,241 17% 3,470 0 $322 $30,495,081 2 Warner Bros. / New Line Seeking a Friend for the End of the World $545,568 18% 1,625 -- $336 $4,830,016 1 Focus Moonrise Kingdom $501,686 3% 395 217 $1,270 $12,604,094 5 Focus The Hunger Games $107,237 10% 414 -179 $259 $403,168,935 14 Lionsgate

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter $2,027,720 7% 3,108 -- $652 $20,236,680 1 Fox Prometheus $1,390,722 4% 2,862 -580 $486 $111,184,041 3 Fox The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $256,702 15% 741 -443 $346 $38,864,532 8 Fox Searchlight

Rock of Ages $1,403,107 -9% That's My Boy $1,318,352 -18%Men in Black 3 $1,203,567 -3%