boxofficefreak
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Posts posted by boxofficefreak
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1 hour ago, oMeriMombatti said:
I like your reaction because it adds intrigue to your response. You're laughing with me....or you're laughing at me.
TU
edit- you're definitely a WAR+ guy
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7 hours ago, AndyLL said:
Moderation:
A little late (I'm in an ocean somewhere) but can we settle down a little?
How does an animated trailer get people banned? I sense an anti-disney bias inflaming the conversation
In any case... personal attacks will not be tolerated.
Clean it up.
If we treated forum members with valuations based on their on field performance (content/postings) we can liken the measurements to WAR.
Of which there are a greater and greater amount of members who just LOVES to start stupid arguments and spam the shit out of the threads. Lets call them below average value over replacement players (baVORP)
After reading the thread prior to the "argument with @empirecity" its clear to me that he didnt directly insult these (baVORP). Rather these (baVORP) added nothing to the discussion other than opinion pieces and incited arguments, hence their rating and classification.
In sum, theres evidence that Empirecity (high WAR++) was provoked and didnt directly insult the (baVORP) and might have been thrown out too early.
notes - I would consider myself borderline replacement level and maybe (baVORP) from previous warnings
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USING CHINA AT $353,784,095
INFINITY OS-C = $969,340,948
China@ $356.25
AVENGER LEGS - $996,209 M $993.705M
ULTRON LEGS- $993,887 M $991.36
Notes-
WEEKLY GROSSES OS-C
05/21 - 05/27- $32,978,136
05/28- 06/03 - $16,235,761
*Starting to see more volatility in ER for two previous films.
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1 hour ago, Fake said:
IW should be at 1960M+ after this weekend. In that case, $2B will be pretty much locked.
I'm thinking it hits close to 1970M with actuals
13.6 (th-sun) dom + 19.8 weekly os+ 20m china week
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Using 953.1M OS-CHINA = 1.287B-333.784M**
Avengers legs- $1,007,993,225
Ultron legs- $998,941,703
CHINA @ $332.85M* AVENGERS LEGS ULTRON LEGS
OS@ $949.83M* $1.00457 B $0.9955 B
CHINA @ $335.57 AVENGERS LEGS ULTRON LEGS
OS@ $951.319M $ 1.006B $0.997B
*source - numbers.com
**source-BOM, chinafilminsider
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28 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:
First off, there's really no need get so passive aggressive. It's not like I'm attacking you or something, I'm just trying to help and I never insulted anyone or anything. Don't understand why you seem to be taking something very impersonal so personally.
While you say you're trying to "help" this is the second instance where you nitpicked data and argued over accounting methods. You initiated an argument last week concerning aggregate method accounting vs ema, when the data was readily available and and the interpretation is user's context.
I've glanced over your post (tltr) but your main points are "varying" and "fluctuating", right?
Wolf Warrior 2 (WW2) Closing wknd 27/10/2017
$6.651853** $6.620050***
YUAN 27/10/17 ER USD 20/10/17 ER USD
WW2 5.679Billion* $853,747,069 $857,848,506
If you were correct in your assessment (how BOM is wrong, but you are right) their total OS total would have been any of those two numbers BOM only used "weekly exchange rates" calculation. You are wrong, it's okay.
I will just fluctuate my way out of this discussion with you because you're just needlessly repeating yourself.
*ENT group
**X-rates
***X-rates
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1 minute ago, Quigley said:
BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but who could one know?
Resident expert Ephemeris
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18 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:
OS actuals: weekend was overestimated by $286k, but the total was underestimated by $3.89M:
Country
(click to view chart)Rank Days in
WkndWeekend
Gross%
ChangeScreens/
TheatersChange / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 3 3 $32,214,038 -62.6% 36 -19 $894,834 $1,286,889,282 5 Much, much better. Feed us more #s and less tangential nonsense.
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"Part 1OS-China actuals"
"Possible 3M increase from calculated estimate of 946.2Million. "
I cited "Part 1" so..... couldn't you deduce that there could be other iterations? I also mentioned Possible further implying that it could be up for change.
38 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:The foreign total and weekend number are both still the same estimates, actuals have not been reported yet.
The China total is off because boxofficemojo always uses exchange rates the wrong way. They always recalculate the entire USD total every week using the latest ER. China total is actually higher than what they say it is.
OS-China actuals are not in yet.
Just b/c it seems like you're in the business of "pointing things out", would you happen to guess how multinational firms calculate overseas earnings on financial disclosures?
Regarding volatility of exchange rates there's an accounting method of constant currency that's used by firms to establish core earning reports. Constant currency calculated on a consistent manner then further reconciled with GAAP methods allows investors to fully interpret the data.
Feel free to look it up and educate yourself so you can nitpick others more eloquently in the future.
What your'e saying about BOM is a farce because
A) you're implying that the site is explicitly using a fluctuating ER calculation, which is not true. They have a varying exchange rate calculation that's calibrated based on past ER rates for a given period and also updates international OS #s on a recent ER period.
.B) They do not only calculate exchange rates on a weekly basis, it's a combination of both.
Exhibit1
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6 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:
The foreign total and weekend number are both still the same estimates, actuals have not been reported yet.
The China total is off because boxofficemojo always uses exchange rates the wrong way. They always recalculate the entire USD total every week using the latest ER. China total is actually higher than what they say it is.
OS-China actuals are not in yet.
I'm familiar with how it works. Thanks!
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Part 1 OS-CHINA actuals.
1283 Billion - 333.784M China = 949.216M OS-CHINA.
Possible 3M increase from calculated estimate of 946.2Million.
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12 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:
Saying that a movie could have been bigger in a market is not trolling. I wasn’t even attacking anyone. And you are right about me not hating avengers since I’m an actual MCU fan. I wanted the movie to hit 2B and feel tricked and betrayed by the predictions here.
If you're accused of trolling by more than a handful of commenters, it might warrant a second assessment.
"I wanted the movie to hit 2B and feel tricked and betrayed by the predictions here"
"As for my age: I’m young but I’m not that young, old but I’m not that old"
Duly noted.. you're older than 10 but below the age of ingenuity
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On 5/28/2018 at 9:46 AM, GraceRandolph said:
The UK is at fault for IW failing to reach 2B WW.
Few q's for you
a) how old are you, wondering if you a young professional
b). what joy do you get from starting arguments, aggrivation
While it's all fun and games to criticize a movie for it's boxoffice blunders/flop. You're inciting strong reactions (trolling) from forum-ers with you schtick. It doesn't seem like you hate/dislike Avengers, but you're clearly lambasting "predictions" made by others when the movie was clearly on a high note after it's huge os/domestic opening weekend.
It's one thing to mock/criticize others about failed predictions, but do you really have to do it on so many threads and ruining viewerships from this many fronts ???
The movie is clearly not flopping even with such high expectations. It seems like most people on the board cited 1B OS-C, 2BWW, 400M China expectations while only a handful of forum-ers might forecasted 1.4OS-C, Titanic WW, 500+China in the beginning.
What joy do you receive from repeatedly trolling and mocking? I'm hoping you're a younger chap and that you'll learn that just because you're an internet alias and this forum is an open domain, it doesn't mean you can neglect all social etiquette.
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We shall see, maybe there's a bump in actuals similar to last weekend. Eurocup def had an effect and world cup coming up in 2.5 weeks. Will be interesting for sure.
Avengers Ultron legs - $991.704M
Avengers Legs - 1000.690M
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10 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:
That doesn't matter to those calculations though. It has already been taken into account. That was the whole point of his spreadsheet.
Yes, I already said in my post that using weekend multipliers take too much effort. But you can still use week multipliers like I did in my post, and that would improve the results.
I guess we can agree to disagree. I fancy using aggregate data and you prefer a moving average model (ema)
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22 hours ago, Ephemeris said:
Some constructive criticism on that, if you don’t mind:
Using percentage of total gross up to a certain point is not a very good way to compare legs, since it doesn't take into account how good legs have been up until this point; one movie could have made 10% of its total gross this weekend while IW got 3.35%. Using % of total gross completely ignores that. It doesn’t take into account at how much harder it would be for IW to add another 10% to its final gross compared to that other movie. For that reason, using multipliers is the way to go when comparing legs imo.
While you may not have weekend numbers, you could use week multipliers instead without putting in a huge amount of extra effort. Using your spreadsheet:
- Avengers was at $604,485,663 after last weekend and $685,415,461 after this weekend, so it made $80,929,798 in the last 7 days.
- Age of Ultron was at $582,351,230 after last weekend and $640,336,480 after this weekend, so it made $57,985,250 in the last 7 days.
- Infinity War was at $858,963,242 after last weekend and an estimated $916,200,000 after this weekend, so it made an estimated $57,236,758 in the last 7 days.
Final totals outside of China according to boxofficemojo(guessing you already what they made in Japan up until their 4th weekends?):
Avengers: $809,155,078
Age of Ultron: $706,287,826
So if IW has the same week multiplier as those, it would end up with:
Avengers: 916,200,000+((809,155,078-685,415,461)/80,929,798)*57,236,758 = $1,003.7M
Age of Ultron: 916,200,000+((706,287,826-640,336,480)/57,985,250)*57,236,758 = $981.3M
This doesn't yet take into account that IW got hit pretty hard on the weekend compared to the weekdays, which means its bound to drop more than usual on the next few weekdays... So if we used weekend multipliers instead, these numbers would be lower(and that's probably more realistic), but I barring unusual weeks like this(where there's a disparity between weekday and weekend drops), using the full week multiplier would give a good estimate.
I think $970M OS-China would be a realistic target atm.
0 sum game, the reason you can't use those weekend numbers relative to weeks is because weekend numbers from BOM/numbers/etc count some countries with 4 day weekends, 5 day etc. Also data recorded for past movies are not readily available for Mon-Thursday #s.
Commonality was the reason for using BOM/numbers reported weekend numbers as it's the same reference point for the three movies. Compiled grosses for all countries compared to Infinity war at same point in time.
I think it serves as a good reference point.
I don't think anyone is arguing that this is a perfect model and it's used primarily b/c I was annoyed with lack of comparison charts available.
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WEEKEND 4 with estimates
I think it just misses or crosses 1B OS-China. Real OS-China Friday to Sunday weekend drop was pretty bad.
Avengers OS legs (Minus China) - $1.018 Billion
Avengers Ultron Legs (Minus China) - $ 0.9998 Billion
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Fixed Weekend 3 with actuals.
Avengers OS legs (minus china) - $1.082Billion
Ultron OS legs (minus china) - $1.030 Billion
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10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
Just to be clear on the methodology, is this individual applying the TA/AoU multipliers to each country, or applying a multi to the total OS-China gross and then applying to each country proportionally? And what multi — the multi just off the third weekend or off the cumulative gross at this point?
Thanks Jumbo* for imgur tip.
The ratios were used from Ultron + Avengers foreign box office numbers (minus China) at the same point with Avengers Infinity.
So, weekend 2 Russia Grosses were used as comp for all 3 films, countries that opened in different weekends (later or earlier say Japan/Poland etc) were tallied together at Weekend 3 to be compared to Infinity's opening weekend launch.
There were countries that were missing data, ie- Estonia, Bahrain, Central Americas for first two films, Switzerland for Avengers, etc. There wasn't too big of a discrepancy with missing countries, (est 11mil for Ultron and 30mil for Avengers).
Cumulative totals were used for countries with reported #s.
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Again for life of me, cannot figure out how to embed pictures in this forum
AVENGERS BATTLE (link)
Based on estimates, will upload actual# later this week if anyone is interested.
Infinity War AVENGERS LEGS ULTRON LEGS OVERSEAS - CHINA $1,081,047,068 $1,051,665,034 $859,000,000 China 200,000,000 STUPID # $308,327,448 South Korea 84,600,000 $103,152,504 $91,318,329 United Kingdom 82,100,000 $102,156,189 $101,854,429 Brazil 55,600,000 $80,833,461 $74,738,308 Mexico 54,800,000 $67,271,029 $61,659,053 India 41,000,000 $48,761,516 $43,012,849 Australia 40,700,000 $56,566,712 $46,677,232 France 39,800,000 $46,631,759 $47,077,968 Germany 36,100,000 $46,216,045 $46,926,209 RUSSIA 28,600,000 $35,259,579 $36,900,455 JAPAN 27,800,000 $34,770,477 $40,093,007 Indonesia 24,400,000 $27,089,205 $26,187,119 Philippines 21,800,000 $23,207,847 $23,218,038 Spain 21,300,000 $25,424,834 $24,990,782 Italy 21,000,000 $21,750,991 $22,335,299 Taiwan 19,300,000 $22,086,011 $21,839,355 Hong Kong 18,600,000 $21,368,277 $21,055,072 Thailand 17,200,000 $17,465,986 $17,693,246 Malaysia 16,600,000 $18,823,652 $17,505,314 -
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
I think Passing Titanic with 1B OS-China is disfavored, but passing with the more realistic 1-1.07B OS- China is very slightly favored.
Edit: Wait, no I don’t. Typed that comment out on the run and somehow dropped a 100M somewhere
I don't see how it'll pass Titanic at this time tbh, I think China is at 320ish, Dom 671, and OS 1050 Total - 2.05B. I think China's opening is hugely exaggerated based on forum "predictions". Be realistic and be happy with a 2B marvel film.
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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:
Even with 50 percent solid drops it will get to 980 million.
It'll be close, if and when the new openers blow up then you're probably looking at 60% drops.
4/25-4/26 4/27-5/3 5/5- 5/10 (est)
Week 0 Week 1 Week 2
95M 471.7M 223.30
-52.6%
Total 95M 566.7M 790M
Wknd +Daily Total Drop Notes
Wk 3 108.93 898.93 -51.22% 75M/33.93
WK 4 49.018 947.948 -55%
WK 5 22.05 970 -55%
WK 6 9.93 979.93 -55%
WK 7 4.46 984.4 -55%
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INFINITY Avengers legs after wknd 2 Ultron legs after wknd 2 $714,603,260 $1,309,519,458 $1,074,080,366 United Kingdom $67,200,000 $112,264,189 $105,238,018 Mexico $48,700,000 $73,882,392 $64,070,719 Australia $35,700,000 $61,264,301 $49,015,829 Brazil $44,300,000 $90,219,769 $76,261,161 South Korea $69,100,000 $113,213,453 $98,140,376 japan $23,900,000 $38,274,923 $45,080,456 France $31,500,000 $46,042,924 $45,281,748 Germany $28,800,000 $46,544,991 $45,539,630 Russia - CIS $17,600,000 $44,538,269 $36,043,362 Italy $18,900,000 $28,046,368 $22,443,612 Spain $17,700,000 $24,127,043 $30,143,119 Taiwan $0 $0 India $44,300,000 $52,686,223 $52,636,098 Philippines $19,700,000 $31,078,281 $23,696,027 Singapore $0 $0 Malaysia $0 $0 Argentina $0 $0 Indonesia $20,600,000 $32,702,309 $25,822,265 -
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After Wknd 2 Infinity vs Avengers vs Ultron
Cannot figure out how to link/embed pictures.
Using cumulative totals after wknd2 (same countries)
COUNTRY AVENGERS Percent of Total Gross minus China ULTRON Percent of Total Gross minus China INFINITY Avengers Percent of Total Gross minus China Ultron Percent of Total Gross minus China TOTAL AFTER WKND 2 $441,554,994 54.57% $469,904,975 66.53% 714,603,260 $1,309,519,458 $1,074,080,366 -
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Weekend Prediction thread 5/10-5/12 Play the Derby
in Box Office Derby
Posted
1) Incredible 2- $138.52 million
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........
If Avengers keeps more than 90% of screens, (or less than 200 theater drop) that it's $8.090 million