Ephemeris
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Posts posted by Ephemeris
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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
But when SMH had that 2nd week, that's when everyone (except me and a few posters) thought the wheels had come off and its legs were dead...and I admit, I always said late legs were coming for Spidey, not that its 2nd week holds were any good...
But for those late legs, SMH and AM&TW do not face the same competition, nor environment, nor even movie strengths (Spidey, as a teenager, just plays better than a middle aged man to the tween set:)...so hoping it rebounds in week 3 like Spidey did is hoping a lot without a lot of evidence yet...
But why wouldn't it rebound in the third weekend? Thursday previews made up the biggest percentage of the opening weekend of any MCU movie. It won't have to deal with that on the third weekend, so why wouldn't the 3rd weekend drop be a lot softer than the 2nd?
And it's July. A >60% drop with schools out is very different to a >60% drop with kids in school. The weekdays eat more demand in the summer which leads to bigger 2nd weekend drops, but it doesn't lead to lower multipliers. The weekdays are bigger so they compensate for the bigger 2nd weekend drop. Seems a like lot of people don't account for that.
And btw, I'm not saying it'll get a 2.86 multi like SMH. No MCU sequel has had legs that good. The average multi for an MCU sequel is about 2.5. With SMH's 2nd weekend drop it would need to add about 2 times its 2nd weekend total(much less than SMH's 2.9 times) to reach a 2.5 multi. Doesn't seem very hard with the help of summer weekdays.
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Don't see how a 9.4% drop for AM&tW is anything other than standard/expected.
It's right in between Ant-Man's 8.1% and SMH's 10.3% first Thursday drops.
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9 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:
I think it's just the big discount Tuesday effect correcting itself.
But I deliberately left Tuesday out by using the Mon-Wed drop instead.
Thought the Sun-Mon drop seemed a bit big for this time of the year, then big Tuesday increase was unusual too, and now it has the best Mon-Wed drop in the MCU. Just makes it seem like Monday was hurt by something.
I'm not from the US so I thought I may have just missed something that happened on Monday. Guess not then?
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Oddly enough, Ant-Man made 16.2% less on Wednesday than it did on Monday which is the lowest Mon-Wed drop in the entire MCU.
Was Monday deflated by something? Any special events in the US on Monday?
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37 minutes ago, baumer said:
They gave it a 21% Sunday drop....that's pretty reasonable. It's the Saturday number that is shocking.
I disagree, imo it was the Friday number that was a bit unexpected after that Thursday number, not the Sat increase over true Fri. It got a 5.9% Sat increase, bigger than Homecoming's 4.7% increase last year.
Thursday was big compared to the Friday number, but that makes sense with a lot of people probably having the day off after July 4th, and previews also started an hour earlier than they did for Homecoming. So apart from the relatively big preview number, it seems to have followed pretty standard drops over the weekend.
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21 minutes ago, StevenG said:
A 35 million Friday will lead only to 85-90 million OW? I don't believe it.
I see it more like, 35 Friday, 33 saturday, 28 Sunday= 96 million
But I can totally see this barely going above 100.
It's July though. A $33m Sat after $23.5m true Friday would be a >40% increase, that's way too much. For comparison, Homecoming got a 4.7% true Fri-Sat increase last year.
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30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
.....am I insane or did this actually cross 1B OS sub-China?
FOREIGN TOTAL - 4/25/18 $382,823,108 28.1% $1,363,903,341 7/1/18 China Disney 5/11/18 $191,034,859 53% $360,483,643 7/1/18 
(or duh me and dumb Box Office Mojo? The Numbers reports differently....)
Yeah, that's just boxofficemojo using latest ER to recalculate the entire total for the market every week, so their China USD number is off. And the-numbers is even more off than boxofficemojo. They have China at $358.6M, for the same reason(recalculating with latest ER), and on top of that their OS total is off as well. Boxofficemojo's foreign total is the correct one, not the-numbers.com's.
Disney reported China was at $374.8M in their last update, on June 24th. Has made another $700k in China since then.
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12 hours ago, Barnack said:
I imagine what matter is when do they get the money and when do they exchange it if they do, does anyone know ?
Maybe toward the end of the run isn't far from what happen or maybe they get and exchange weekly ? Real time ? end of the quarter ?
Not sure how it goes down in their accounting books. But when it comes to reported box office numbers at least, the studio definitely doesn't use the last ER for the whole total. I've never seen a studio reported per market total get adjusted downward like boxofficemojo does(except when it's estimates --> actuals, but you know what I mean).
For example, Disney's last reported number for IW's China total was $374.8M(after June 24th). With latest ER it would have been millions lower, and we would be seeing the overall box office number go down too, and again this week as it would lose another $5M+. If studios used the latest ER on the entire international total, then we'd frequently be seeing overall international total go down at the end of a movie's run, when the dollar gets stronger. Since that doesn't happen, we know for sure that this is not what the studio is doing. At least not when it comes to their reported box office numbers.
So the end of run/end of quarter theory doesn't hold up when it comes to reported box office numbers. Seems like it's either a fixed ER, or maybe it's real time, or weekly like you suggested and they add what it made over the last week with that week's ER. Would be very hard to tell how it really works without insider info, especially since it may be based on intercompany ER which we don't have access to.
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4 hours ago, Not really said:
1.2B looking more and more secure by the day.
Also, they're thankfully not doing the thing where the current ER in China is used for the entire gross.
The studios never do that though, boxofficemojo does. And when they update their China total, it'll be a few million lower(probably high $232m). Thankfully it doesn't matter for the overall foreign total.
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Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days - (2) Incredibles 2 Walt Disney $13,628,000 +36% 4,410 $3,090 $407,811,514 15 - (6) Solo: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney $703,000 +23% 1,654 $425 $205,689,115 36 - (8) Avengers: Infinity War Walt Disney $421,000 +22% 890 $473 $671,503,712 64 - (-) A Wrinkle in Time Walt Disney $12,000 -9% 58 $207 $100,441,532 113 - (-) Black Panther Walt Disney $10,000 -12% 80 $125 $699,794,698 134 -
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Deadline just updated with this:
Quote6th Update, Monday AM: Disney is reporting that Pixar’s Incredibles 2 is flying in at $183.2M, higher than where both the industry ($181M~) and the studio were seeing it yesterday. Records still maintained: Best animated opening of all-time beating Finding Dory ($135M), 8th best opening of all-time, just ahead of Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M) and best PG debut of all-time besting Beauty and the Beast‘s $174.7M. New Line’s Tag was a bit higher at $14.9M after a $4.5M Sunday, -7% from Saturday in 3rd, while in second place, Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ocean’s 8 looks to be settling at $19M, -54% for $78.6M. Sony’s Superfly is down in 6th place with $6.8M FSS, $9M for the 5-day. More actuals later
https://deadline.com/2018/06/incredibles-2-tag-superfly-weekend-box-office-1202411262/
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Looks like everything was overestimated with yesterday's estimates. JW2 previews revised down to 13.56M.
It says the total after Thursday was 13.58M. Noticed before that the total is often very slightly bigger than the preview number with first actuals. I know it doesn't really matter, just curious why since I've seen it before with other movies. Is there a very small amount of special showings the day before previews or something?
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26 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Didnt PotC5 release after the service fee addittion and reporting already happened? If I am not wrong the service fee additions started happening around CNY 2017 in Feb but PotC5 was released in May.
Also does someone know whether the numbers Maoyan has on their website NOW have been updated with the service fee? Coz if not then that CW number will be higher.
On Maoyan you can tell if a number includes the fees or not. It says at the top: 综合票房 (including fees) or 分账票房 (excluding fees), like this:
^That's with including fees selected
So if you went back to PotC5 you may have to click on 综合票房 first to switch to numbers including fees, and the number is 14.59M.
For CW it only shows 分账票房 (excluding fees) at the top, like this:
so Maoyan doesn't have the number including service fees, only excluding. So yeah, that 16.95M number for CW is excluding fees.
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Thursday estimates:
So:
1. Jurassic World 2: 14.50M (previews)
2. How Long Will I Love You: 8.70M
3. Toilet Hero: 5.56M
4. Happiness is Coming: 5.54M
5. Avengers: Infinity War: 4.95M
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Anyone know what's up with this?
Last weekend:
QuoteDisney/Marvel’s juggernaut added $32.5M in 36 material markets this weekend
This weekend:
QuoteIn its 6th weekend of overseas play, Disney/Mavel’s Avengers: Infinity Waradded $24.3M in 54 international markets.
Why did it lose 19 markets last weekend and then gain 18 back again the this weekend? Not just deadline, but the-numbers.com and boxofficemojo also reported the same amounts of markets for those 2 weekends. Has to be just an error, right?
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@boxofficefreak, you misunderstood/misread. I never said boxofficemojo recalculated the complete OS total each week, just the totals for individual markets.
For most movies, boxofficemojo simply uses the OS total the studio gives them, so - like I said - the OS total is not affected by this wonky use of the ER, but the per market totals are. Wolf Warrior 2 was an exception where the OS total was affected though since the Chinese distributor didn't report official OS totals, and boxofficemojo had to piece it together themselves(I'll explain why they got the number the have in the spoiler tag at the bottom, since it's beside the point).
The only thing I was pointing out was that boxofficemojo's per market totals are off because those are recalculated every week using the latest ER, and this understandably caused you to use the wrong China total to calculate the OS-China gross in that post(BOM's China gross was too low because the ER got worse). That is all I pointed out, and yeah, doing that should only be helpful. Don't see a reason to get worked up about any of this.
And no, I wasn't wrong, nor would I care if was. Whenever I make a mistake I'll happily admit it, I really couldn't care less about "winning an argument". "Winning" will never be my goal in any discussion... the goal of a discussion is to clear something up. Nothing more, nothing less.
SpoilerFor Wolf Warroir 2, the OS total reached a peak when ER led to the highest China total(Sept 8-10), and it never changed since then, even though it made millions more. So WW2 is an instance where the OS total is arguably off. If the ER got better again before it ended its run in China, that OS total could have been significantly higher...
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47 minutes ago, Quigley said:
BOM says May 27. Could be a mistake, but how could one know?
I think it is a mistake. I checked Solo, and they do say it's as of May 28 for that... Since that's Disney too, and since the total is so much higher than the estimate(especially without the weekend being higher), it probably does include the OS Monday number.
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First off, there's really no need get so passive aggressive. It's not like I'm attacking you or something, I'm just trying to help and I never insulted anyone or anything. Don't understand why you seem to be taking something very impersonal so personally.
Also, yes, I am aware of what constant currency is, it's just not really relevant here since that's not what boxofficemojo is using for their per market totals.
1 hour ago, boxofficefreak said:What your'e saying about BOM is a farce because
A) you're implying that the site is explicitly using a fluctuating ER calculation, which is not true. They have a varying exchange rate calculation that's calibrated based on past ER rates for a given period and also updates international OS #s on a recent ER period.
.B) They do not only calculate exchange rates on a weekly basis, it's a combination of both.
Exhibit1
First off, boxofficemojo's overall OS totals(and the combined OS weekend totals) are not affected by their wonky usage of ER for the per market totals(pretty sure the combined totals come from the studios themselves)
But for their per market totals, they most definitely do use varying ER to recalculate the total each week. It's not combined with anything else.
Boxofficemojo's per market totals come from many separate sources, which usually report numbers in local currencies. Boxofficemojo then calculates the USD per market totals using the latest ER(yes they recalculate those every week). So their per market totals for most markets are accurate in local currency, but a bit off in USD(for some markets it's the other way around though). The overall USD total however does not depend on their per market totals(Like I said I think it comes from the studios themselves), so that is unaffected.
Not sure what you mean to prove with that picture btw? It just shows that ER had an effect, but it doesn't say anything about how it affected it.
For most markets, they recalculate the total each week using the latest total in local currency and the latest ER(this includes China). Nothing else goes into it. That causes issues at times, where the total goes down when the ER gets worse and goes up again when it gets better, like this:
Date
(click to view chart)Rank Weekend
Gross / % ChangeGross-to-Date Week # Jul. 28–30 1 $131,773,219 - $146,942,986 1 Aug. 4–6 1 $162,397,405 +23.2% $469,638,678 2 Aug. 11–13 1 $83,921,355 -48.3% $679,495,519 3 Aug. 18–20 1 $35,969,957 -57.1% $768,421,294 4 Aug. 25–27 2 $16,277,906 -54.8% $810,843,045 5 Sept. 1–3 3 $8,713,726 -46.5% $848,349,872 6 Sept. 8–10 4 $3,824,495 -56.1% $866,010,440 7 Sept. 15–17 5 $1,178,189 -69.2% $861,802,414 8 Sept. 22–24 6 $880,032 -25.3% $858,811,960 9 Sept. 29–Oct. 1 14 $201,885 -77.1% $851,645,984 10 Oct. 6–8 10 $587,061 +190.8% $853,239,087 11 Oct. 13–15 14 $133,732 -77.2% $863,080,932 12 Oct. 20–22 20 $91,655 -31.5% $858,015,301 13 Oct. 27–29 19 $40,914 -55.4% $854,248,869 14 Compare those numbers in local currency to another source that has those numbers in local currency(like Maoyan), and you'll see they are in fact just using that varying ER, and there aren't any other calculations going into it.
This also causes issues like Guardians of the Galaxy's China gross being listed too low because they updated it in 2017, when the ER was worse:
May 5–7, 2017
(US $1 = 6.9031 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
< Prev Wk Currency: Next Wk > TW LW Movie Weekend Gross Change Gross-to-Date Week 17 - Guardians of the Galaxy $12,820 - $86,346,366 135
The total was actually $10M+ higher than that, but they updated the gross in 2017 and in doing so they also recalculated the total using 2017's worse ER...
So yeah, they are in fact just using that varying ER, and there aren't any other calculations going into it. That's how they do things, and yeah, it's far from ideal...
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OS actuals: weekend was overestimated by $286k, but the total went up by $3.89M(Edit: I think it already includes the Monday OS number):
Country
(click to view chart)Rank Days in
WkndWeekend
Gross%
ChangeScreens/
TheatersChange / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 3 3 $32,214,038 -62.6% 36 -19 $894,834 $1,286,889,282 5 -
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8 minutes ago, boxofficefreak said:
I'm familiar with how it works. Thanks!
If that's true, then why did you say OS-China is $949.2M when you know it's not?
You're welcome though.
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19 minutes ago, boxofficefreak said:
Part 1 OS-CHINA actuals.
1283 Billion - 333.784M China = 949.216M OS-CHINA.
Possible 3M increase from calculated estimate of 946.2Million.
The foreign total and weekend number are both still the same estimates, actuals have not been reported yet.
The China total is off because boxofficemojo always uses exchange rates the wrong way. They always recalculate the entire USD total every week using the latest ER. China total is actually higher than what they say it is.
OS-China actuals are not in yet.
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17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
is there anyway to cross check the credibility of the data? this looks so suspicious, from a studio that fudge the TF4's opening
Boxofficemojo just messed up entering Paramount's Thursday numbers. The-numbers.com has the correct numbers(and so do the box office twitter accounts).
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46 minutes ago, boxofficefreak said:
I guess we can agree to disagree. I fancy using aggregate data and you prefer a moving average model (ema)
Can I ask why?
A movie that added 20% to its cumulative total in the latest week will clearly have a way easier time adding another 10% to its total than a movie that added only 1% in the latest week. Using the aggregate model ignores that entirely and would give the exact same result to both of those, when it's already obvious one of them will make waaaayyyyy more going forward. It could give the 2nd movie something ridiculous like a 20x bigger multiplier, while the 2nd movie has actually shown to be way more frontloaded than the first one... So I don’t understand why you would prefer the aggregate method over ema when it comes to box office? What advantages does it have that would warrant ignoring this (pretty massive) flaw, in your opinion? Just curious.
(or duh me and dumb Box Office Mojo? The Numbers reports differently....)
Thursday's Numbers: AM&TW $5.29M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Yeah I also think it still has a decent shot at $200M+. Was just saying that I don't see why a multi of 2.5 or higher for Ant-Man would be considered bad legs for this. It would be right in line with previous MCU sequel legs, or even above average. So if it gets that multi, why wouldn't the drops be standard/expected? Just because people are hoping for more doesn't mean that multi would be unexpected. Hoping and expecting are two different things.
And yeah, I'm sure some would be underwhelmed if it does end up missing $200M, but in the end it'll still make enough to be successful, so it's fine really. It's far from a flop.
(Extremely late reply, I know, lol)