[THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD]

Have been really busy with the hectic schedule of residency. Just saw the numbers and wanna hop in and express my happiness. Always good to see new franchises and theaters thriving well. Thinking TLK19 Dom is going down. What a start!

[Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day]

Iirc the Presidents' Day WE Fri is basically an off day for many schools. Last year NWH had its best Fri jump that friday. That combined with AM3 petering out and football frenzy being finally done with leads to strong holds across the board. 

[Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day]

Jesus Christ, My finger is more sore from scrolling the 4th page of this thread than a surgery yesterday. Wtf happened there? 

[Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)]

17 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Avatar #1 for 41 straight days, when's the last time that happened?

Not in 2022/23, that's for sure. Cuz Avatar was not #1 for 41 days straight. M3GAN dethroned it on OD.

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

Sad day for all of humanity as Puss falls below OW for the first time

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Those CHIPMUNKS movies, whoa.

Chimpmunks 2 & 4 were accompanied by the highest grossing films of all time. Maybe the only way to make the highest grossing film of all time is to fund Chimpmunks 5 and 6? Perhaps BOT should start a Gofundme page ...

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

5 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I'm pretty sure it's still Top Gun lol

Oops. I thought that was obvious. Pretty sure most knew that. I meant after TGM. Sorry for the confusion.

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

This made me thinking, which film made the most after falling from #1. A quick glance reveals it's Incredibles 2, though I'm too busy to look at others. 

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

2 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

What's the DOM record for a film that never reaches #1 for a weekend? 

Sing, I believe. 

[Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Numbers starting to roll in:

 

PiB = $2.75 (+183%) —> $11M

M3G = $2.62 (+165%) —> $9.5M 

Whale = $360K —> $1.2M

 

Does look like popcorn day Thur bump lowered the Fri increases 

Kinda low on PiB wouldn't you say? Replacing the popcorn day Thursday and using Fri/Wed bump, Puss is outpacing J:WTTJ (+224% vs +196%). Would think close to 12M for that. 

[Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19]

A 11.0x isn't that unexpected for A2 anymore. Needs about +150%/+110/-38% for that. Previous trends and logic implies it should have much better Fri/Sat bump compared to MLK week. However needs atleast +180% on Friday for 12.5x. Thinking 11.2-12.2x is where it ends up. 

[Short Weekdays thread Jan 17 to Jan 19]

Now that holidays are absolutely not a thing anymore, we can analyze weekdays with more clarity (a bit boring I'd say considering there isn't much room for surprises anymore). Thinking Puss will have enough of a Fri/Sat bump to offset the holiday boosted Sunday advantage of last week and end up with 10.5M+ (<-26%). Avatar, I'd wager 20.5M+ (off of a 1.85M Thursday, give or take).

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

Thinking Tue, Wed and Thu will be down 30-33% (Tue maybe a bit more due to holiday weekend shenanigans), around +150%/+110%/-42% for the weekend. 

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

If Avatwo was having an equivalent run to Titanic, it would have made ~$140M for this 3-day weekend, just DOM  😂

Also would have made ~132M for PD weekend (3 Day), which would mean that Avatar's 10th weekend likely outgrossed AMaTWQ's opening weekend 

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Hypothetical May:

 

TLJ (1st Weekend) = $260M OW / $320M OWeek / $580M DOM (1.8x)

Showman (3rd Wknd) = $25M OW / $34M OWeek / $140M DOM (4.1x)

Jumanji WTJ (Memorial) = $90M OW / $140M Oweek / $360M DOM (2.6x)

 

This is why you can't comp December to any other month, and even December multis get weird depending on release date/calendar/competition

I presume TFA was also a May release in this scenario (Prolly clears 300M in that case). If TFA were a Dec film and TLJ opened in May and ended up with your totals, it could've triggered some heated arguments regarding summer vs winter legs (among other TLJ discussions). 

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

6 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Sounds to me like Puss is having an equivalent run to Titanic 

Cameron wishes he made Na'vi orange instead of blue.

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

4 minutes ago, teard1972 said:

personally I wouldn't compare any global BO run to Titanic and Avatar. Those are true once in a lifetime kinda occurrences. 

Yes. But I wouldn't even rank them in the same echelon. Titanic's global run is far and above everything else.

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Ridiculous run just not possible in today's world.

Makes me appreciate the legendary run of TGM even more. Especially considering the competition it faced

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

47 minutes ago, chaos said:

puss holds very well and  .. and A2 will make 35+ mIllion till sunday (7.5/14/14)

Nah. 7.25/14.5/14.5/14.5 for life

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

Jason when he realises his day doesn't mean jack shit anymore.

 

Honestly great hold for M3GAN regardless of holiday. Looks like leggy horror pics are the tale of the pandemic/post-pandemic era. Puss still keeping up with Jumanji:WTTJ

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

What the hell! Oh my gawww, imma die from the fact it's literally just 25 bucks from $96mil

Imma die from the fact it's not $69M. What a wasted opportunity.

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

3 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Wish A2 got that PIB Friday boost instead y'know.

And I'm sure Dreamworks wishes PiB had the A2 final total...

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

17 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Luiz predicts a $690/720M finish.

So his prediction ranged from... 490-870M finish. Now that's a man who covers ALL his bases.

[MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M]

Puss fucks alright...

Fri - 3.03M

Sat - 5.77M (+90%)

Sun - 4.6M (~13.4M) 

Mon - 3.3M

Gone fairly conservative here. Even flat or a small increase wouldn't be out of question. More importantly, it kept up with Jumanji: WTTJ, which should give us a baseline for the future of this run.

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

8 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

It would be funny if AM3 released in China and MCU withdrawal banged out like $300M.

Imagine telling someone in 2018 that AM3 outgrosses Avatar 2. Anyway let me whip up a quick reddit post of how XXR says 300M is the FLOOR for AM3 in China.