motionpic05
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Posts posted by motionpic05
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So, based on Black Phone's performance:
Do we think Halloween Ends, M3GAN will remain theatrical only movies? -
So, would a $23 million OW for Black Phone be good?
I just hope horror movies continue to have a presence theatrically.
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23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
So after saying otherwise earlier in the topic I'm going to say I think I was wrong and that the news is having an impact on the box office - particularly Black Phone and Top Gun. After going to a rally, talking to some friends, then seeing these numbers, the impact is real. Black Phone is just a little dark and bleak for a younger audience that feels like shit, and even people like me who love Top Gun Maverick might be saying let's skip the patriotic propaganda movie today. Elvis/JW/Lightyear should be totally fine, though.
Interesting.. but not all that surprised
With today's news and other recent events, Black Phone isn't exactly a cheer me up type of movie.
But, I think Top Gun: Maverick is more impacted by Elvis since that's taking more of the older crowds.
Still, both are looking at solid weekends.
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3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
I am not sure it will get to 22-24. I was thinking 3+6.25+6.5+5= 20.75M. Hopefully WOM drives it higher.
I still think it could push it to $7m for tonight, and take a nice jump for Saturday.
But yeah, It would still be a good debut.
Blumhouse always keep it cheap.
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Just now, ThomasNicole said:
So mid 30 for Elvis and 22-24M for The Black Phone
Still happy with these
Both great. They'll follow along nicely and have good holds.
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Just now, Grebacio said:
any Dr Strange numbers? wondering how D+ impacted its numbers
Lot of theatres dropped it this week. Went from 2,465 to 1,855.
Could apply it to having two fairly large releases this week.
My local theatre (Ontario) has given it the smallest room, but it's still selling okay.
Think there was about 20-25 tickets sold for it Today.
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NOPE tickets still haven't come out in Canada yet.
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Black Phone is actually doing great for a horror movie in Ontario.
Typically, it seems that horror is less successful in Canada in general.
Extremely walk-up friendly at my local theatre.
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1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:
I was lowballing TGM at 30m this weekend b/c I didn't want a repeat of my 3rd weekend disappointment. Still doesn't bring me joy to know I got it right
It's had an amazing run. If it stopped making money now, It would still be insanely successful.
It's probably hurt a bit with Elvis and Black Phone coming into the marketplace.
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Elvis is honestly kinda shocking.
Still a solid debut, but I was thinking $50 million OW was in the realm of possibilities.
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45 minutes ago, filmlover said:
In future release date news, Creed 3 just got quietly pushed to March of next year.
Creed III | Official Website | March 01 2023 (unitedartistsreleasing.com)
This is what November looks like now:
4: Amsterdam
11: Black Panther
18: The Menu, She Said
23: Bones and All, The Fabelmans, Strange World
Seems manageable by November standards tbh. Imagine Strange World will have IMAX/PLF screens on lock for Thanksgiving weekend.
That's interesting... I'm surprised they're moving it.
The first and second Creed both did really well in that November slot.
I wonder if it just needs more time in production...
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The Black Phone and Elvis both looking good in Ontario.
I'm going with about $20 million OW for Black Phone & $60 million for Elvis
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So what is The Black Phone looking at for this weekend?
I see some people saying it's too close with subject matter in comparison to recent events, but I think it's a little far fetched.
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I really don't get why people are considering The Black Phone to be going too deeply in subject matter. It just seems far fetched.
I definitely think Universal is trying to stay away from going crazy with marketing like I'm sure was originally planned, but still keeping it there. It's going in about 3,200 theatres so that's normal.
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2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:
Honestly, TGM could actually win the Sunday if these numbers pan out.
Me too. It's going to be the "Father's Day" movie of the year.
I mean, Lightyear will be the one for father's with young kids though.
No one is going to take there 4 year old to Top Gun lol
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I'm honestly not too surprised.
It doesn't really have the "must see" aspect to it IMO.
I feel like there's a Toy Story franchise fatigue too...
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Lightyear is having one of the best walk-up sales for a movie that I've seen in the last 5 years
But still, I think it's going to be a big underperformer.
I feel like Jurassic is going to benefit greatly from Father's Day so It might be able to avoid -65%+ drop.
Overall, I think we are headed towards a "meh" weekend
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Lightyear seems to have minimal buzz
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$132 million seems like a big lowball... and I'm not just saying that as a Jurassic fan
Pre-Sales look fantastic for tonight in my area, I don't see under $140 million honestly...
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So do we think the re-release of E.T. and Jaws will actually do well?
Re-shoots aren't really big deals... normally -
NOPE Tickets are on sale.
Guess it's keeping the July 22 date.
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8 minutes ago, Tinalera said:
Its not the same demographic, but just saw (for me) first trailer for Black Adam with an Oct 21 release date, Oct could be an interesting month for releases.
It would be interesting to see Ends move to the 7th...
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Halloween Ends is going back for two weeks of reshoots.
Could It still make it's October release date?
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Anyone ever find out where the $125m OW prediction came from?
It definitely looks Friday is way better than Thursday.
$125m is the floor in my opinion. But, $200m is far out the window.
Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Even though Black Phone's performance is solid, it does seem like horror isn't as strong as it used to be
From 2016 and forward, it seemed like everything broke out (except for a few).
Now, It seems like everything underperforms (except for a few)
Jason Blum made a good point. The future of original horror IP is uncertain.