21C
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https://twitter.com/dc_jp/status/1482986050494468096
https://twitter.com/WBPictures_Mx/status/1482827751589498880
Japan seems to be pushing a really aggressive marketing campaign for the movie. WB accounts in Latin America have also started to promote the movie with the March release date. They aren't leaving international marketing unattended that's for sure. -
Seeing the comments and QRTs on this I wonder if people realize that it dethroned Spider-Man's 5h weekend, not its debut weekend.
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8 minutes ago, excel1 said:
$300m opening weekend
Worldwide? Maybe, domestic impossible.
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Just now, WittyUsername said:
I’m glad the movie is PG-13 (although I knew it was never going to be rated R), but if anything, I’m actually curious if this movie will face some backlash for being too intense for kids.
Nobody cares about that sort of stuff anymore.
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The Batman has been rated PG-13 by the MPA for "strong violent and disturbing content, drug content, strong language, and some suggestive material"
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3 hours ago, Porthos said:
The Last Duel tanking hard really solidified the take, but initially it was the The Suicide Squad vs Free Guy matchup which lit the fuse, I think, along with F9's success. Sure, TSS wasn't exactly "dark", but the out-of-nowhere success of Free Guy needed an explanation and "feel good" movie was as good as any (this is more about FG's success than anything else, so no need to revisit the myriad reasons why TSS didn't take off s'il vous plaît).
More generally, it was the adult-ish films under-performing while the more crowd-pleasing ones over-performing.
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As for The Batman? Well as No Way Home showed, it's not so much feel-good, as crowd-pleasing. Or perhaps even both. While I was worried a bit about NWH's potential if it wasn't 'feel-good', I did come around to the idea pre-release that if it was cathartic, it could do gang-busters business in this environment.
Which it absolutely did and did.
While I don't expect The Batman to be the same type of cathartic as NWH, I do think there is repressed... Rage? Anger? Angst at not being able to put the pandemic fully behind us, that is just waiting to be tapped into.
A (and I really hate using this word) "darker" film that taps into that feeling of rage/anger/angst and has an acceptable outlet for it to be released... Well, I've mentioned that this film seems to be tapping into a zeitgeist, and this is certainly a possible way it could play out: Living through Batman as he
punches the virus in the facedeals with a chaotic, out of controluniversecity that seems like it might be on the cusp of falling over the edge.Mind, I do think we've kinda forgotten that AQP II did quite well, all things considered. And AQP II isn't exactly what I would call a feel-good time at the movies. So even though I do personally think, all things being equal, the movie-going public prefers feel-good/crowd-pleasing movies right now, I do think there is room for more cathartic fare.
Another thing I'd also add is the fact that The Batman, much like how Joker did (which is why I keep coming back to that comparison) is also going to be exploring real world issues in a way that seems like it's gonna be extremely universal for people to connect with and understand; specifically the themes of corruption and how bad public officials can affect an entire society. Obviously these topics have always been important for people, but I think that after the pandemic and everything that's happened the last 2 years not just in the US but in the entire world, these topics are now in the minds of people more than ever.
As far as I can think of, there is not a single blockbuster that has come out in 2020 or 2021 that went that deep into those topics as The Batman is promising to be doing, no film that has quite aimed to capture that specific feeling of anger at the circumstances or the system, so if The Batman sticks the landing I can completely see it following Joker's overseas trajectory, but with the added factor that this film also has enough spectacle in it to also attract an audience that Joker didn't attract, and it being PG-13 also helps too.
I'd argue that Batman being this grim isn't an argument against it box-office wise, but rather for it, specifically because of the way it promises to be handling its themes.-
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12 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Interest will rise a ton if the film gets good reviews. Either way I'd count just being .6 points behind Spider-Man in terms of interest as a good thing, considering how huge Spider-Man is. It's just 9% less than Spider-Man in terms of interest. The fact awareness is already so high is very encouraging. When Spider-Man had the same level of awareness, it had 6.89 interest, which is just 5% more than Batman currently.
Of course I still think 200 million OW is a pipedream, but 150 would be pretty good.-
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42 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
This doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that would get an A+ on Cinemascore. I’m expecting an A- or something. I just hope it isn’t a B+.
It won't matter. Joker got a B+, so it won't be the end of the world.
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Remember when Delta started popping up on late July-early August, a lot of studios panicked and pushed back their September releases leaving Shang-Chi with no competition which was a gigantic benefit for Disney?
Yeah, the same thing is happening with The Batman now in March with Omicron. Any potential damages for the variant will be offset, if not completely destroyed, by the lack of competition.
WB has to stay.-
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:
Batman is not that popular in OS markets. At height of Nolan trilogy, TDKR grossed tad under 650m(of course without 3D). This with uncertain environment 400m OS would be good. Domestic 250m+ is great. what is more important is the reception. If that is strong, sequel will have much bigger potential.
And Joker earned 728 million overseas, and the opening weekend for BvS was I think the highest in history before its terrible word of mouth. The audience for Batman has grown considerably the last 10 years. He's a character with compound interest in terms of popularity because of how much new media of him gets released each year and how emblematic his previous stuff has been. There's a whole demographic of teenagers and young adults that are now into Batman that weren't there 10 years ago.
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1 minute ago, Eric Smith said:
Well it's not even playing in theaters.
And even then, is it really hard to think that awareness would be stronger, at this specific point in time, because that's what they are tracking, for a movie that's debuting in a little more than a week than two films that barely have a sliver of marketing?
Yeah I definitely think that specific top spot is to be taken with a grain of salt (although I'd say it's really really impressive for Spider-Verse to be that high) but the thing that strikes me as more interesting is the Spider-Man comparison numbers. It won't do as much as Spidey because Spider-Man benefitted a lot from the inclusions of you-know-who but it is encouraging for those of us that think this can make a billion or get close to it.
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1 minute ago, peludo said:
Same here. I wish it could beat NWH, but to think in magical numbers being a so dark film is absurd. 300-350 DOM and 700-750 WW would be a very good result.
Would you have said the same thing about Joker? I think a billion is extremely plausible and would be a certainty if not for COVID.
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Just now, RiddlerXXR said:
Definitely don’t read too much into this, unless you think Hotel Transylvania 4 would make more than Thor 4 or Black Panther 2 at the box office also….
I think the disparity in those numbers is mostly because Thor 4 and Black Panther 2's marketing hasn't started yet.
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9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:
Quorum data is noisy and shouldn't be taken too literally. We know for sure that neither Batman trailer got anywhere close to the level of buzz of NWH trailer 1 or even NWH trailer 2.
Oh yeah, and I don't think it'll do the same box office wise either. But I do think The Batman will make 50%-70% of what NWH will do, and this helps that notion.
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Another interesting thing to point out from Quorum: The Batman has roughly the same or even slightly higher amount of interest/awarenesss as Spider-Man No Way Home did 2 months before release. (The Batman: 57.78% awareness, 6.58 interest, 56% willing to see it in theaters on January 3rd, 2022. Spider-Man: 52.27% awareness, 6.56 interest, 56% willing to see it in theaters on October 7th, 2021)
And the amount of interest/awareness generated from The Batman's first teaser 1 month after its posting was significantly higher than the interest of Spider-Man No Way Home's 1 month after its posting. (The Batman: 63% awareness, 7.05 interest, 49% willing to see it in theaters on September 17th 2020. Spider-Man: 53.85% awareness, 6.44 interest, 53% willing to see it in theaters on September 21st, 2021)
Maybe WB isn't stupid for thinking they have a Spidey-level event in their hands, it's literally what the data is telling them.
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3 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
Is that in response to the Morbius news?
Yes
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48 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
What are the odds we’ll get another trailer in early 2022?
Extremely high. The last trailer was 5 months away from release, the first one was a year and a half away from release, they'll need to put up another one, probably in February when presales start.
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1.5 billion worldwide let's gooo
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14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
The problem is not the variant itself, i'm sure most people don't care at this point even if it's 750% more transmissible.
The problem is if restrictions happen. If most theaters reduce capacity from 100% to 50% this will be a huge problem to deal with, and like it or not, could be enough for a delay since it will hurt the box office.
I'm not saying it will happen, but keep on denial and say it's impossible after 2 years of a really unpredictable environment is hilarious.
I don't think there's much political will left on a lot of countries to do these types of mass restrictions everywhere anymore to be honest especially with the majority of people on a lot of territories being fully vaccinated with that number growing each month. At least not for a variant like Omicron, if there came a worse one maybe.
I know that at the very least in the US there seems to be pretty much zero, and for that alone The Batman would it stay on its release date because Batman has always done well domestically. -
17 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:
Welcome to the Forums! Your thoughts/numbers seem pretty in line with what a lot of people here are thinking. I do worry that this intense industry fascination with a "dark" Batman might backfire a bit, especially right now. I also have concerns with the reported 170 minute run time. Neither are concern enough for me to think this will be below $350M DOM or finish under $900M worldwide when it's all done.
I can see the argument for the "dark" thing one way or the other really. I've been following this movie's production closely and more than any other blockbuster that has come out since well, Joker, it's exploring the themes of corruption and inequality in ways so close to the real world that you don't really see in big movies like this. On the one hand, this worked out great for Joker and with everything that happened it could touch a deeper nerve on the public and make it go even bigger, on the other hand, maybe with everything that happened people will want escapism and to not be reminded on the worst aspects of real life.
Buuuuut even with that catch-22, this movie seems to be balancing out the escapism with the deeper themes, so even in that respect I think it's perfectly positioned. It'll connect with audiences in both those ways, if you just want a good time at the movies watching Batman beat up bad guys and flirt with Catwoman, you'll get that, if you want deeper themes, you'll get that too.
I wouldn't worry about the runtime. Test screenings are just that, test screenings, I'd expect it to end closer to the 164 minute runtime (which might have been the case all along since phones get taken away in those things so it's probably really easy to lose track of time) of TDKR, and I think the fact that it'll have no competititon for an entire month will help it against any setbacks it could create, especially if word of mouth spreads really positively.
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Okay, so I'm new to this forum and I've been checking what you guys have been saying and I think you guys are missing a very very crucial detail: I think it's fair to say that Batman, in terms of raw numbers of people that know and like the character, is more popular now than he ever was before, moreso than when the Nolan films came out. Why do I think that? Well, more than any other superhero, I think that it's fair to say that Batman has been the one that's had more exposure outside of the movies during the past 10 years since TDKR came out.
You gotta imagine thousands, if not millions of people each year have been discovering those Nolan films for the first time with the way they constantly play on TV, and on top of those people you also gotta take into account the Arkham games and how popular each and every one of them have been to the point that even though there hasn't been a new one in year they're still considered classics, you gotta take into account things like the Gotham TV show, the animated movies or the Telltale games, and how Batman constantly dominates the comic book industry. Even in years where Batman doesn't have absolutely anything movie-related, the character is still very much being introduced to new people. None of those products in by itself would bring enough people in to liking the character or his world to make the prospects of this movie better. But all of them combined? Of course they do. On top of all the people that went to watch the Nolan films, this film will be able to count on all those teenagers and just people that have gotten into the character for the first time the last 10 years.
I've been waiting to see NWH's box office because I think that it'll establish a pretty firm ceilling in the sense that I'm convinced that whatever amount of money NWH makes, The Batman will make anywhere from 30%-50% less. Why do I think that? If we go by the current estimates where NWH could make 700 million domestic, and 800 international, then we're looking at a total of 350-490 million for The Batman domestic, That doesn't sound unreasonable at all when you consider that R-rated Joker made 335 million domestic, and the top also doesn't sound implausible considering the fact that TDK made 500 million, and The Batman is in a very good position with its release date to have legs.
Internationally we'd be looking at 400-560 million, which again, doesn't sound insane when you consider Joker made 728 million internationally. Even though they're not connected, there are a loooot of similarities between this movie and Joker in terms of themes and tone that I think it'll attract that same exact audience + the Nolan films one + the new people that have just gotten into the character.
OW I'm predicting 35%-50% less than NWH, so anywhere between 126-164 million domestic, 167-233 international, for a total global of 293 million to 381.
Total run worldwide 750-1050. But I will update these predictions when NWH finishes its run and we see where the ceiling for the most popular IPs/superhero of all time actually are, kinda think my predictions will get higher.
Regarding Pattinson I don't think his casting is gonna affect this movie one way or the other. Could there be some Twilight audience members that get into this movie? Yeah but I'm not counting on them and right now there's really no reason to think they'll necessarily show up and they don't have to for this movie to be a success. And as for the haters I don't think they matter, most of them will show up anyway.
The themes of inequality and corruption that made Joker the success it became will also be present in this movie, and I think they'll ring even harder now than they did then because of everything that's happened in the past 2 years, so I think that'll also propel it to success.-
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The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
This dude is friends with one of the executive producers of the film, Michael Uslan.
The film really is 2 hours and 55 minutes.
Also I'm gonna make a bold prediction and say that rather than this being a detriment to its box office, it'll help it even more. This would make this the second longest superhero film just behind Avengers Endgame, and I feel that if the film is well received, the runtime would just make people more curious. It further emphasizes it as an event instead of just a Batman movie, which is more important than ever in these times.