PlatnumRoyce

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Sure, but if you made John Bernthol the highest star power actor in FvF, it would have done a lot worse too. I agree Nope wasn't a super impressive box office run but it at least should be flagged. Elvis making $150M falls below some comps (inflation adjusted) but it's also pretty much in the same vein as films cited above. The audience clearly wasn't in theaters for movies like this in 2021 but moviegoing health is clearly continuing to improve in fits and starts. The big problem is that we're dealing with a very small "n." I mean, Soul nearly outgrossed Onward worldwide despite being released in much worse circumstances including no US release at all. Nothing changes but these numbers presumably look a lot rosier if Soul either gets the Onward or even the Raya date.

Nope isn't that far off of those films. I'm pretty sure Don't Look Up would have made over 100M if it had been released in theaters.

From what I've heard/read, it seems similar. I don't know the hard numbers but both the movie theater industry trade group ("NATO")/their new nonprofit ("the cinema foundation") has aggressively pushed "premiere cinema experience" as the major post covid area of growth/a necessity. The Quorum's polling has also shown the same thing.

If Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'ahoole had been more successful, what's the odds we would have heard WB talking about an animated Snyder Superman film?

THR said 70% this morning. 73% was a preview number so a slight decline makes sense. Or I guess you can read THR claim as rounded https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-flash-box-office-elemental-iced-1235518215/

On one hand: this comes from Previews so you'd expect gender split to drop let's say ~5% through overall weekend. On the other hand: WB is pretty explicitly NOT releasing followup age data to counteract awful initial demo splits which makes me think this isn't reverting to mean.

CinemaScore's instant poll of audiences leaving the theater was divided pretty starkly by age. Parse the movie's mildly positive B-plus rating, and you find that the under-25s awarded it an A-minus, the 25-and-overs a B-minus — which on CinemaScore's generous bell curve is nearly a failing grade. - https://content.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,2004641,00.html neither are amazing/consistent with public narratives of inception but is there an age story

One very simple point that's worth stressing is that polling error exists so "observed CS" is different from "true CS" To pick two random examples: Girls Trip and Shazam had posttrak and cinemascore divergences and I probably believe GT over Shazam but both are probably "really" the lower notch than CS showed. There's no conceptual reason they should differ so its purely a polling discrepency. That's not the only reason for divergences between box office legs and CS implied legs but it's an obvious one. Of course, that doesn't apply to Flash and it's not clear to me we would ex ante assume the film had a worse cinemascore than true audience response due to stuff like genre confusion that gets resolved through WoM

Played around with google trends stuff and I just don't see the case for that.

here are my attempt at posttrak comps (x/5 stars, % positive, % recommend). While not mentioned, Flash is clearly at 3.5 stars or lower otherwise it would be cited. Let's pull comps: Eternals - 3.5/79/60 WW1984 - 78/67 Love and Thunder - 3.5/77 Alita: Battle Angel - 77/59 Terminator: Dark Fate - 3.5/78/51 F9 - 80%/62% Kong Skull island - 78/60 Kings Man - 77/60 Venom 2 - 4/76/65 Baywatch & Legend of Tarzan - 76% positive King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - 78% positive Venom - 80% ? recommend Hitman's Bodyguard - 4/80/57 Uncharted 79/61 Birds of Prey - ? positive/62% recommend Call of the Wild - 4 stars/?/59 Jumanji: Next LEvel - 4 stars/?/62 Rambo Last Blood - 3.5 stars/56% recommend

Sure...but the genre in question is "tentpole blockbusters" not a specific claim about superhero actors. If you give a couple of people that you think are the least attractive person helming 100M tentpoles, I'll try to find comps. Green Hornet (Seth Rogan) counts, right? https://web.archive.org/web/20110820173104/http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3046&p=.htm 61% male at the end of the weekend for this superhero-comedy

I don't want to call down wrath of mods but I just remain baffled/angered by how massively this was downplayed in the "Ezra is working on mental health" framing. We literally know of three separate family that took out restraining orders against Miller to ensure/try to ensure the celebrity would be legally unable to contact their children! And that's not counting the time child protective services were called to protect another family's children at Miller's ranch. !!!! !!! !!! !!! ! !!! Can that matter?

after diving a bit deeper: I want to walk a little back off this ledge. The big problem is that we still only have Thursday data and OD is a sausage factory. I pulled The Force Awakens' preview, OD and 14 day demo data for comparison. Two separate sources (___ and posttrak) had TFA's previews at 71/72% male skewing but by Friday it had dropped to 64% in postrak and 70% in the other. At the end of the weekend, the other source source estimated 68% overall male skew. Across 2 weeks the more male skewing one thought it was 64% male skewing and posttrak thought it was 58% male. This is still going to be very male skewing but if we get total weekend demo data it could look less crazy.

yeah, I was wondering why we weren't seeing Keaton for the final push.

I'd separate those two. Joker was just self-evidently seen as a "unique non-DCEU film" regardless of whether or not it was technically in the DCEU. Just look at how the film was rewarded by critics and industry groups: Joker was clearly perceived as a different sort of thing from 'comic book movies.' Also...Tom Cruise didn't fall off of a cliff but he's also never really reached his pre-~2005 heights and anecdotally I think scientology stuff clearly hurt him even if it didn't rise to level of "Tom Cruise should go to jail" style reactions. https://www.hometheaterforum.com/community/threads/2005-at-the-box-office.187837/page-37 seems like there was real contemporary debate about just how good WotW's run was relative to correct baseline (even if studio spun it as a 100% success, you see digs at its failure to break records in e.g. the Guardians' writeup). There are more positive reads of war of the worlds box office but I really do think Cruise's brand was dinged, it just started from massive heights and at the end of the day he's personally not really been accused of anything other than acting weird

It's too soon to really judge Morbius. If it didn't hurt the underlying "Sony spider-verse" brand the film's result is fine. Easter Sunday was just a dumped film and Paws of Fury was picked off the trash heap by Paramount's distribution arm. Just as big of a loss for Sony (who paid for 1/3 of the film's production budget). I can't imagine paramount spent enough to lose a lot on it.

Posttrak claims kids gave the film 3.5/5 stars which is the equivalent of a B/B+ cinemascore. The problem is that you'd expect kids to give a 4.5 or 5/5 star ("A") grade. If you assume kids are 25% of the total audience, that alone is bringing down the film 3/4ths of a letter grade. With normal kid scores (assuming posttrak's claims hold up - sometimes posttrak and cinemascore disagree), kids prevented this from getting a normal B+/A- score. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264357293_Grumpier_Old_Men_Age_and_Sex_Differences_in_the_Evaluation_of_New_Services

weird gender splits are leaning more for the other hypothesis (though they're hardly an either/or thing).

Speaking of that Female audiences gave the Flash $2.328M in previews DBO. Morbius...gave $2.223M

I probably shouldn't have said that. But, I mean, When a 12 years old and meets a 23 year old, the 23 year old takes an unhealthy possessive relationship with them including piling them with hard drugs, and then are confirmed as having sex with them as an 18/19 year old, that's an inappropriate relationship. Still, shitty to include it as a passive aggressive swipe at Flash film instead of just openly saying it. I hope I'm wrong about this stuff, but it seems like a good thing that Ezra Miller's money and fame will go away if this film bombs.

Kids are literally free positive reivews. Yeah, either this is a weird sample size thing or this cinemascore is going to drop HARD. Through the friggin floor. I'd assume some degree of bounceback. Other "under 12" scores * ETERNALS - Kids under 12 rated the film better with four stars and 90% positive, and a 65% definite recommend. * Ant-Man 3 - 4.5 stars * Multiverse of madness - Furthermore, kids under 12 gave the movie 5 stars, * Wakanda Forever 5 stars * Superpets 4.5 stars * Godzilla 2 - 5 stars from both parents and kids * Shazam 1 - 4.5 stars (Shazam 1 had overall bad posttrak numbers to contrast with great cinemascore [it was so bad they didn't report the raw numbers until Shazam 2 dropped]) * Maleficient 2 - 52% recommend * Hobbes and Shaw - 4.5 stars * Rogue 1 - high 80s% recommend * rise of beats - 90% positive/ 73% recommend. ---- What did Ezra Miller ever do to 12 year olds to make them hate the flash so much?

On that big omnibus poll released by a polling firm a few weeks ago (included a Qs on summer films), MI was second oldest skewing film behind IJ. I suspect walkups are going to be larger.

Kids seem to generally have lower recommend scores controlling for same grade but only 3.5 stars?

On the other hand, this is a cheap form of marketing. What if, instead of Kraven, you said Bullet Train or something like Widows?