Flip
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Posts posted by Flip
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2 minutes ago, AniNate said:
For now I'm thinking Mickey 17 does $50 mil at best, hope I'm wrong about that
It can definitely do more than that, Parasite did 53m as a foreign language film without a built in fan base.
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Also, if both Michael and Passion of the Christ stick to April 18th, we might have two movies doing over 100m on the same weekend for the first time ever
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My list right now (DOM):
1. Avatar 3 (140/715)
2. Zootopia 2 *5-day OW (160/440)
3. Superman Legacy (148/410)
4. Michael (102/345
5. Passion of the Christ 2 (90/325)
6. Fantastic Four (110/300)
7. Snow White (93/281)
8. Mission Impossible 8 (85/255)
9. Jurassic World 4? (97/250)
10. Minecraft (94/235)
11. Blade (80/215)
12. Fast X (70/170)
13. Elio (49/168)
14. Captain America 4 (64/163)
15. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (86/154)
a lot of these movies I need to see trailers for before making an estimate (Kendrick movie, Karate Kid, Mickey 17, Dog Man, dirty dancing) and some like Wicked part 2 are dependent on how the installment that hasn’t been released yet does.
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25 minutes ago, poweranimals said:
Where are people getting Passion 2? I'm not seeing it anywhere on the release schedule.
If you search it up I think it says it’s releasing next year
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1 hour ago, seduh7 said:
how is Conan doing in daily box office this obon festival? Does anyone has the numbers?
Franspeech on Twitter has estimates in dollars that aren’t perfect, but are close enough
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Will get lost in the flurry of Fall Guy posts but Mobile Suit Gundam is selling good compared to Spy X Family, but it has much less showings and no PLFs
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44 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
100 less theaters than the last installment but that released during summer (drive ins + more theaters overall are open) and pre pandemic so it’s probably a similar share
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Hard to put too much stock into it rn, let’s see how the weekend goes before declaring Fall Guy a disappointment
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93% CGV for Fall Guy, it debuted to 35k admits plus its previews, but today was a holiday (every movie increased a lot) so it won’t make too much. Roundup is chugging along though and will pass 7.5m this weekend
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6 minutes ago, AniNate said:
I do imagine there is some of that desperation for family content at play here, which I don't know will be as pronounced with it opening after IF in the US
I agree, the fact that Kung Fu Panda has over 3x legs even as it’s the worst received entry in the series shows how people are clamoring for family movies
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7 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:
Aight, here are my current summer predictions. Thoughts?
It's opening weekend/total domestic
*Wednesday release
1. D&W - $148/$414
2. IO2 - $118/$378
3. DM4 - $65*/$291
4. Furiosa - $62/$184
5. BB:RoD - $56/$151
6. Twisters - $46/$147
7. AQP:DO - $44/$136
8. KotPotA - $48/$133
9. Garfield - $42/128
10. The Fall Guy - $36/$120
11. Horizon 1 - $27/$118
12. Horizon 2 - $35/$96
13. IF - $32/$92
14. Alien: Romulus - $34/$91
15. Trap - $28/$84
16. It Ends With Us - $14*/$80
Overall similar to mine which are:
1. Inside Out 2 (170/530)
2. Deadpool 3 (185/460)
3. DM4 (135 5-day/ 360)
4. Horizon 1 (51/172)
5. Bad Boys (58/168)
6. Quiet Place (59/167)
7. Garfield (49/158)
8. Horizon 2 (55/155)
9. Twisters (50/150)
10. Planet of the Apes (49/143)
11. Furiosa (42/135)
12. Fall Guy (30/96)
13. Alien Romulus (36/92)
14. IF (30/90)
15. Trap (29/79)
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Just now, Flip said:
Not sure where they’re getting a 30m 4-day for Garfield. It’s pacing ahead of Trolls 3 and when you take into account a holiday weekend which means minimal drops on Sunday and Friday I’d guess closer to 45 or 50 million
*Monday not Friday
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Not sure where they’re getting a 30m 4-day for Garfield. It’s pacing ahead of Trolls 3 and when you take into account a holiday weekend which means minimal drops on Sunday and Friday I’d guess closer to 45 or 50 million
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23 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Santikos Tracking
Fall Guy (EA) - 79/1,171 (5 shows)
- Bullet Train (EA) - .84x (1.05m)
Fall Guy (Thu) - 62/7,319 (37 shows)
- Bullet Train (Thu) - .363x (1.21m)
- Beast - 2.696x (2.49m)
- Massive Talent - 2.214x (1.85m)
Bullet Train total is at 2.26m (without any adjustment)
Tarot - 10/2,757 (18 shows)
- Firestarter - 1x (375k)
Phantom Menace (Fri) - 474/3,148 (20 shows)
- Dragon Ball Z - .506x (3.34m)
- Avatar 2 - .109x (3.96m)
- Top Gun 2 - .115x (3.76m)
- Batman - .088x (3.09m)
(Not often do I look at anything before T-1 so not too many comps available)
Anime is good idea for comps, I’d expect walkups to be similar if not a little stronger for TPM
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7 hours ago, emoviefan said:
You are right. It's just one movie. I am not even sure why I care that much. Have not seen the movie yet.Plan to this weekend and hope I really enjoy it and agree with the positive reviews. I think I am just going down the rabbit hole of how terrible the BO is right now and really hoped it would break out and give some life to the marketplace. Maybe the walkups will surprise and it will have great WOM and legs or maybe it will get beat by TPM this weekend. Will see.
I feel like if Fall Guy fails it sets the bar for success very high for other original action movies. If a strongly reviewed movie with zero competition starring the guy who stole the show in the biggest movie of last year can’t even open to 35m, how are less appealing films going to succeed?
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5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold Fall Guy T-3 Jax 6 37 7 50 6,318 0.79% Phx 7 24 10 82 4,147 1.98% Ral 8 30 13 83 4,641 1.79% Total 21 91 30 215 15,106 1.42% Fall Guy (EA) T-2 Jax 5 10 11 69 2,007 3.44% Phx 1 2 3 31 618 5.02% Ral 2 2 10 47 412 11.41% Total 8 14 24 147 3,037 4.84% Phantom Menace (Re) (OD) T-4 Jax 5 30 212 212 2,765 7.67% Phx 6 19 240 240 2,195 10.93% Ral 7 28 283 283 3,036 9.32% Total 18 77 735 735 7,996 9.19% Tarot T-3 Jax 5 21 3 13 1,752 0.74% Phx 6 16 0 15 2,534 0.59% Ral 7 19 0 8 2,550 0.31% Total 18 56 3 36 6,836 0.53% Fall Guy (Total) T-3 adjusted comps
- Jungle Cruise - 1.51x (4.25m)
- Bullet Train (Total) - .58x (2.73m)
- Cocaine Bear - 1.49x (3.52m)
- Civil War - 1.21x (3.52m)
- Free Guy - 1.19x (2.71m)
- Ticket to Paradise (Total) - missed
- Lost City (Total) - .797x (3.13m)
- Equalizer 3 - .971x (3.69m)
Size adjusted comps - 3.27m
Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day Fall Guy Total 45.38% 23.69% 12.11% 17.53% Jungle Cruise 38.95% 29.07% 31.97% 17.16% Bullet Train + EA 44.78% 29.23% 27.21% 18.86% Cocaine Bear 49.08% 9.82% 11.56% - Civil War 53.61% 38.66% 26.05% 17.79% Free Guy 50.25% 51.23% - 9.71% Lost City Total 64.49% 26.45% - 16.71% Equalizer 3 48.02% 38.89% 31.17% 16.20% The last few days it has been on track with comps. Hoping for +30-35% tomorrow
Tarot T-3 adjusted comps
- M3GAN - missed
- Abigail - .486x (486k)
- Talk to Me - .353x (439k)
- The First Omen - 1.091x (791k)
- Invitation - .878x (697k)
- Immaculate - 1.161x (639k)
Size adjusted comps - 688k
Phantom Menace (OD) T-4 adjusted comps
- Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .915x (3.58m)
- Ghostbusters: FE - 1.094x (3.95m)
- Transformers 6 (Total) - .489x (3.45m)
- F9 - .592x (3.65m)
- Morbius - .748x (3.58m)
- Indiana Jones - .586x (3.46m)
Comparing OD to previews will skew things a little, but not many options here.
Are there any rereleases you’ve tracked?
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Godzilla X Kong opened to less than Godzilla Vs. Kong, but not by too much so with golden week it can probably pass the previous one’s gross
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13 minutes ago, Box Office Hit said:
He’s right, this would be a great movie to find an audience on streaming so part 2 can draw in more people. I think it would do great over the holidays as counterprogramming to Mufasa and Sonic
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I would point out that something like The Fall Guy is going to be far more backloaded than something like TPM. Especially a re-re-release of TPM.
As for "not even have a great reputation"? Not the thread to get into it, but I will generally point out that the reputation of the prequels in general has trended way up over the last decade-plus. Not just from any perceived compare/contrast with other material that might have come out, but folks who always loved those movies getting a much louder voice and finally starting to outshout prequel detractors.
I won't try to oversell this as the reputation is the reputation (I personally am... not high... on TPM). But you'd better believe that there is a very dedicated group of folks out there for whom the prequels are very much their jam.
Not only backloaded but also way more walk up friendly.
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4 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
What is Star Wars Ep. 1 OW looking like?
I looked at two (non-plf) theaters near me, and for next Friday Phantom Menace has 99 tickets sold while Fall Guy has only 68 tickets.
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4M admits will be hit by tomorrow
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4 hours ago, Quigley said:
Weekend: April 18-21, 2024
Rank Title Weekend admissions % Change Screen count / Change Total admissions Week 1 Kung Fu Panda 4 8,848 -6.1% 89 -16 128,771 5 2 Civil War 7,278 – 85 – 7,278 1 3 Abigail 5,733 – 76 – 5,733 1 4 Back to Black 4,142 -39.0% 44 -29 14,817 2 5 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 3,221 -50.6% 38 -57 12,164 2 6 The Canterville Ghost 2,249 -9.1% 52 -8 4,988 2 7 Mia and Me: The Hero of Centopia [English-language German–Australian] 2,023 – 49 – 2,023 1 8 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 1,576 -47.1% 15 -17 35,131 4 9 Late Night with the Devil 1,401 -57.4% 23 -22 6,791 2 10 Dune: Part Two 1,285 -38.9% 15 -4 170,803 8 Sources: https://flix.gr/news/box-office-18-4-2024.html
https://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-that-panda-keeps-beating-on-top/
The reign of 'Kung Fu Panda 4' is still not over. With five weekends at #1, its has now matched the record set by six other films in the last 15 years (weekend box office information before that time is incomplete and unreliable).
Title Total admissions Year The Hangover 244,054 2009 Joker 906,958 2019 Άνθρωπος του Θεού 283,520 2021 Avatar: The Way of the Water 422,811 2022 Barbie 465,887 2023 Poor Things 433,546 2023 Kung Fu Panda 4 128,771 2024 Unfortunately, the DreamWorks Animation fourquel didn't reach this record because its impressive performance – in fact, it is by far the worst-performing film among the batch. Its prolonged streak at first place was simply due to a period of incredible box office drought.
There is not much else to say about the newcomers or the other holdovers. Completely and utterly disappointing. There have been specific articles focused on this stark drop in cinema attendance. Having read all the takes, I think the biggest impact was caused by the Hollywood actors' and writers' strikes in mid-to-late 2023. These were the longest and second-longest strikes in history for each guild, respectively, and have led to a ripple effect that the movie industry now beginning to witness. There simply aren't any major crowdpleasers out there at the moment due to delays caused by these strikes.
This coming weekend, one of Greece's most successful YouTube channels (Unboxholics) are releasing their first feature film, «Μην ανοίγεις την πόρτα» ('Don't Open the Door'). Yesterday, on its opening day, it sold about 27,000 admissions, which is the biggest opening day since 'Oppenheimer' (28,562 admissions on August 23, 2023) and the biggest post-pandemic opening day for a Greek film. The Easter period won't be working in its favor, but the film seems poised to reach the 200K-admission blockbuster milestone in the worst-case scenario. In fact, a 100K-admission-plus weekend is not out of the question, since schools and universties are closing this weekend for the Easter break (Unboxholics fans tend to be teens and uni students/young adults).
Off topic but what are you expecting for Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 since both the originals were massive here (~900k admits). Similar admits to Avatar 2?
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Roundup 3 Friday: 651,133 (1,986,123) much better Friday than last years edition
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3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D Challengers 2903 52,837 44,384 8,453 2,394 0 Unsung Hero 2492 39,237 39,161 76 0 0 Civil War 2,900 35,594 -21.10% 34,342 246.66 1,252 204 0 Abigail 2,891 35,529 -26.80% 35,379 185.12 150 0 0 Godzilla x Kong 2,748 33,820 -11.03% 30,223 251.78 3,597 54 2,332 Ungentlemanly Warfare 2,654 31,451 -20.94% 31,221 200.09 230 0 0 Boy Kills World 1764 24,841 24,831 10 0 0 Kung Fu Panda 4 2,320 22,606 -17.14% 21,861 171.97 745 0 705 Spy x Family 1,864 21,747 -21.49% 21,726 146.59 21 6 0 Ghostbusters: FE 2,224 21,057 -22.68% 21,034 163.46 23 0 0 Alien Day 45th Anniv 1590 12,711 12,671 40 0 0 The Mummy 25th Anniv 1174 10,712 10,707 5 0 0.00% Dune: Part Two 1,123 8,548 -41.52% 6,993 201.67 1,555 1,478 0 Monkey Man 1,264 6,771 -60.71% 6,769 132.79 2 0 0 The First Omen 842 5,033 -71.93% 5,030 99.85 3 0 0 Sasquatch Sunset 512 2,392 -76.79% 2,392 41.54 0 0 0 4/26/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*
*Not all theaters are included
Opening Weekend Comp
Unsung Hero - 39,237 (2,492 TC)
- Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277)
- Cabrini - 39,434 (2,660)
- Respect - 40,541 (2,876)
- House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)
Challengers - 52,837 (2,903TC)
- Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)
- Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)
- Strays - 52,103 (2,849)
- Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 52,002 (3,049)
- No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698)
Boy Kills World - 24,841 (1,764 TC)
- Nightmare Alley - 24,922 (1,911)
- King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)
- Retribution - 26,853 (1,705)
Alien (Re-release) - 12,711 (1,590 TC)
Mummy (Re-release) - 10,712 (1,174 TC)
- Shrek 2 (Re-release) - 11,820 (1,281)
- Father Stu (Re-release) - 11,346 (941)
- Luca (Re-release) - 10,207 (1,230)
- Jurassic Park (Re-release) - 9,791 (1,183)
T-1 Week Comps
Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,253 (1,003 TC)
- Creed III EA - 1,188 (945)
- Dog EA - 1,099
- Top Gun EA - 1,008 (942)
- Strays EA - 915
Fall Guy - 57,692 (2,725 TC)
- M:I 7 - 58,550 (2,531)
- Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579)
- Equalizer 3 - 52,325 (2,325)
- No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)
Tarot - 26,900 (1,787 TC)
- Smile - 27,557 (2,196)
- Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048)
- Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)
- First Omen - 25,375 (1,974)
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace - 22,369 (1,860 TC)
- Titanic (Re-release) - 17,111 (1,598)
- Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-release) - 15,478 (1,821)
This is the largest re-release I've seen since I've been tracking
T-2 Week Previews Comps
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,133 (961 TC)
- Fall Guy EA - 1,190 (952)
- Creed III EA - 1,126 (889)
- Top Gun EA - 970 (932)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 10,644 (2,347 TC)
- Ghostbusters: FE - 12,645 (2,430)
- Godzilla x Kong - 12,011 (2,175)
- Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405)
- Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)
- Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)
- No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)
- Barbie - 10,509 (2,488)
- Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)
T-3 Week Previews Comps
Back to Black (5/15 EA) - 163
Back to Black - 2,634 (1,245 TC)
- The Blind - 2,539 (1,426)
- Tarot - 2,637 (962)
- Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)
IF - 1,731 (592 TC)*
*Mostly just AMC up so far
T-4 Week Previews Comps
The Garfield Movie (5/19 EA) - 381
- Barbie EA - 372
The Garfield Movie - 8,118 (1,899 TC)
- Shazam 2 - 8,118 (1,899)
- Fall Guy - 7,481 (2,174)
- Barbie - 8,920 (2,053)
- Haunted Mansion - 6,498 (1,763)
Sight - 2,182 (1,229 TC)
- Black Phone - 2,277 (887)
- The Blind - 2,476 (1,390)
Phantom Menace should have a good chance at #2 next Friday unless it’s in less than 2.5k theaters
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most disappointing performances for a sequel?
in Classic Box Office Runs
Posted
Maybe this is controversial, but I feel like Frozen II was kind of a disappointment. Given how big the first one was it should’ve done over 500m and closer to what Mario did than Finding Dory numbers