HummingLemon
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Posts posted by HummingLemon
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30 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
Cinemascore isn't critical response though. There are movies that suck ass with great cinemascore and vice versa. Gran Turismo got an A, are you gonna seriously claim it's more popular than Multiverse of Madness based on that?
I was talking about audience reception. OW of GOTG 3 was muted due to the meh audience reception of the past couple of MCU projects.
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Multiverse of Madness and Thor 4 earned a B+ CinemaScore which is pretty poor by MCU standards. Before phase 4 the only one lower than an A- was Thor (2011) and that's considered one of the weakest MCU movies.
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It's pretty obvious that the not-so-well received projects like DS2, Thor 4, Ant-Man 3, and She-Hulk continually damaged the brand which caused GOTG 3 to have such a low opening.
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1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:
It wasn't clear if Guardians was going to outopen Antman until the final week, which is a big yikes in itself. Strong reviews saved an otherwise underwhelming presales run. By T-7 most came to the conclusion that $100M+ was a safe bet
Oof, that's bad. Especially for how trash Quantumania was
How much do you think Guardians would've opening to had it released in May 2022 (right after No Way Home). . .before Doctor Strange, Thor, She-Hulk, and Ant-Man fucked everything up?
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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows
Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW.
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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I mean honestly, if this movie isn’t a box office hit, this is truly an unprecedented flop streak for a major movie franchise. Than again, it’s already unprecedented without this…
The pandemic/HBO Max ones don't count so the DCEU is on 5 or 4 flops in a row, depending on Birds of Prey
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20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:
I would say sub $400M is a lot more likely than $1B+
Well, I agree. Not because $400M is likely but because $1 billion is so unbelievably unlikely. Also, when pre-sales start, what do you expect this to be tracking for for the 5 day weekend? I remember you said Marvels would track like John Wick 4/The Little Mermaid or smthn
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9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
That seems like a decent enough comp. Though female leads have overpeformed quite a bit in the back half of this year. Even Bottoms, which...only barely got a theatrical run had a pretty high per theater average
Hmm. . .I could see this having a higher female % than the first Captain Marvel.
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16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
Oh definitely. It'll be like guardians where people say the site not crashing is proof that it's gonna flop.
And then it'll be a bunch of shouting and arguing and it'll just be a solid but lower than the first opening and not the Looking Glass level dropoff everyone expects
I think a good comp is Secret Life of Pets, which went from 875 --> 431, basically a 50% drop. I could see The Marvels ending at like $575M WW which would roughly be a 50% drop from CM1.
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23 minutes ago, Arlborn said:
This is what gives me some confidence that this won’t drop as badly as some think. I think the vibes of the first movie really clicked with a casual audience that should also be here for this one if the vibes are the same
I could see it, Aquaman 2 doesn't have the things that held the other post-Aquaman movies back
Shazam 1 - Unknown character, small scale, kinda cheap
Birds of Prey - R-rated, meh marketing, cheap, D-list characters
WW84 & TSS - COVID + HBO Max
Black Adam - New character, did quite decent actually
Shazam 2 & Blue Beetle - Post pandemic, nobody cares about these characters
Flash - Reddit fanfic movie made specifically for DC fans (+ toxic WOM)
Aquaman 2 doesn't have
1. A character nobody cares about
2. A small budget/cheap in scale
. . .and it also has a good release date
DCEU is buried but I can see it doing well based on its own terms
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The bloodiest of blood-baths starts when we get the first tracking for THE MARVELS
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It's still insane how Aquaman made $1.148 billion but then *none* of their films made $400m WW since (of that, you have one profitable film, one borderline flop, two pandemic excused bombs, and then four straight up bombs).
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10 minutes ago, The GOAT said:
Shazam 2 dropped 64%
I'm confident this won't drop as much
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Ok I can confidently say your <$400M prediction is 100% not happening. There's no way this drops 66%+ from the first one. I know The Flash imploded to $268m WW but this is a far, far safer bet.
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When do you guys think presales for The Marvels will start up? Wakanda Forever with the same release date started on Oct 3.
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
Literally only f9 and Black widow were able to gross anything remotely resembling a blockbuster before SC, and they were major established sequels/characters. I have no idea how it can be said SC wasn’t still fighting a major COVID battle at the box office. People just didn’t want to go back, even if it was considered safer. Without a massive event like NWH, who knows if we’d be back to getting true blockbuster grosses again. A lot of people needed to be dragged kicking and screaming out of their streaming habits to remember the magic of the theater.
Yes, there's no denying that COVID hurt it. I just don't think it hurt it to the extent that you're saying. Domestically, I don't think COVID removed 55% of its potential gross.
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
SC was the first movie to do much of anything post COVID, I think that alone says it all about how impressive it was and how much the pandemic still hurt it. The vast majority of the GA simply would not go to a movie up until a true event movie pulled people back (aka NWH). Release it post NWH and I can’t see how the gross doesn’t double at the very least. Put it more in summer 2022 where we were really finally out of pandemic being much of a factor, and 1b for sure imo. I think it could have been a 500 DOM hit, really seemed like the general reception was phenomenal.
Eh I would've liked for that to happen, but I don't think the pandemic hurt it *that* much. My guess is like $300M domestic + $300M OS + $100M China = $700M WW (without a pandemic)
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6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
There was also still way more momentum for MCU when that came out, in spite of COVID. And the movie turned out to be a definite crowd pleaser. I maintain it was an easy 1bil+ huge breakout for that one in a healthier market, really tragic that’s one of the ones that had to get hit by COVID the hardest.
That is true. The massive difference in general Marvel hype/positivity in Sep 2021 vs Sep 2023 is pretty crazy.
Also I don't think Shang-Chi would've done $1 billion without the pandemic. COVID wasn't that bad when it released so it probably would've done like ~$700-750M, somewhere in the realm of Doctor Strange/Guardians of the Galaxy. And also, how much do you think it would've done domestically without the pandemic?
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Shang-Chi was a new character when COVID was still an issue and it did $225m domestically. This needs to make *AT LEAST* that much to not be a major disappointment.
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1 minute ago, JustLurking said:
Secret life of pets 2 felt like a fucking eternity. That film sucked even by illumination standards which are really fucking low.
I guarantee you most people don't even know that movie exists. And the crazy thing is that it was still insanely profitable
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4 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
It is truly fascinating to see how peoples brains work. Like, outside of one single example in Alice In Wonderland 2, there are no others where a sequel to a $400 mil Domestic (or $1 bil WW) film fell this sharply. It never happens. Even the garbage JW
film made over a billion.
Just wild to me seeing some of these predictions.
Secret Life of Pets went from $369M to $158M (yes I know that's not $400m domestic but it's close enough)
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GOTG 3 could've done like $170M/$450M had it came out in May 2022 instead of May 2023
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Now here's the real question: If this earns $1.148 billion, would that be more impressive than the first one earning $1.148 billion? I would say yes. No joke, if this outgrosses the first one worldwide, that would be (arguably) more impressive than BP $700m domestic.
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film made over a billion.
The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by HummingLemon
Unless Aquaman is a complete masterpiece ATSV is basically locked as the highest grossing CBM of the year dom. There's a better chance at ITSV domestic > Marvels domestic than ATSV domestic < Marvels domestic