Relevation

Is anyone tracking the Phantom Menace re-release? It’s selling phenomenally in one of my friend’s markets for FRI, even outstripping Dune previews at the same point and it’s already well clear of Challengers, Argylle, and The Beekeeper’s entire runs at my market. Could be looking at a double digit debut.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/25/24 Challengers - 52 tickets sold Unsung Hero - 44 tickets sold Boy Kills World - 9 tickets sold COMPS (all Thurs only) Challengers 0.32x of Madame Web ($1.94M) 0.34x of Mean Girls ($1.12M) 0.41x of Civil War ($1.20M) 2.36x of Drive-Away Dolls ($1.06M) 2.48x of Abigail ($2.48M) AVERAGE: $1.56M Unsung Hero 0.56x of Ordinary Angels ($161K) 1.22x of Cabrini ($611K) AVERAGE: $386K Boy Kills World 0.19x of Monkey Man ($268K) 0.36x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($306K) AVERAGE: $287K Challengers on the whole looks to be skewing a little low here, hence why I added the higher Madame Web and Abigail comps to shore up the average. Probably a Thurs preview finish in the $1.75-2M range given mine and other trackers' data, which yields nicely for a $15-20M debut. Unsung Hero looks kinda bad, but that's partially because Ordinary Angels waaaaay over indexed here to a bizarre extent. The average looks ok crosschecking with other trackers tho, so I suppose I'll project out $400K pure THU and a $6-8M OW. And as for Boy Kills World, we now have a new worst selling movie in my market after The Book of Clarence held the crown from the beginning of my tracking dataset. Overall very rough goings, but the two original non EA action comps I have say basically the same thing, sooooo $300K previews and a $3M OW?

I mean, Civil War pretty much did $25M+ opening, not terrible hold, biggest launch for an A24 movie by far, good walkups, probably a $70M+ DOM finish

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/18/24 Spy x Family Code: White - 73 tickets sold The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 25 tickets sold Abigail - 21 tickets sold COMPS Abigail 1.24x of Imaginary ($896K) 1.62x of The First Omen ($1.17M) AVERAGE: $1.03M The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare 0.54x of The Beekeeper (previews+EA) ($1.30M) 0.20x of Civil War ($580K) 0.53x of Monkey Man ($745K) 0.48x of Argylle ($817K) THURS ONLY AVERAGE MINUS BEEKEEPER: $714K Spy x Family Code: White 0.76x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($1.37M) AVERAGE: $1.37M Overall looks pretty rough for Ungentlemanly Warfare, didn't even pace well against the inflated Beekeeper comp with EA baked in. Probably an $8-11M OW on that off something like $750K in Thurs alone previews. As for Abigail, I'm thinking that horror just sells poorly in my area, as Imaginary, First Omen, and now this are some of the lowest selling movies I've tracked here. (For reference: Argylle sold more than all 3 aforementioned films combined). Anyways for the horror only comps, looks like about $1M previews and a $10-15M OW as corroborated by other trackers. Spy x Family sold pretty well, but not as great in comparison to the one anime comp I have. Just gonna trust that one and say something like $1.3M previews and a $6-8M OW.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/11/24 Civil War - 126 tickets sold COMPS Civil War 0.35x of Dune: Part Two ($3.20M) 2.42x of Argylle ($4.12M) 2.68x of Monkey Man ($3.75M) AVERAGE: $3.69M Civil War clearly running hot here, managed to clear $3M even against the Dune comp when one of my theaters has a 70mm screen and I used the lower $9.25M figure as the preview number. It sold more tickets here than Ghostbusters and KFP4, but those likely had better T-0s than this will have. Overall, considering all the comps I used had mid-bad walkups and Civil War is having a great last week judging by other trackers, gonna set my prediction at $3.75M Thu +/- $0.6M, and probably an OW of something like $25-30M.

They can just roll these together like what Disney did with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to get that sweet 100M views headline except in the case of Joker, more like 4x that lmao

This actually looks like a #1 north of $50M+ on every weekend to me tbh, definitely much more balanced in terms of movie types than the $300M budget tentpole fuckfest that was June of last year One big $400M+ mega blockbuster, 3 solid $150-200M genre grossers, and a few smaller films is a cleaner balance especially considering all these movies have smaller budgets

Blown away at how incredible this looks, the cinematography and production design are actually insane I think the cultural zeitgeist is absolutely back here, gonna absolutely be the most talked about movie of the year bar none Basically everyone is gonna go see it, it’s like if you synthesized the audiences for Barbie and Oppenheimer and CBMs and musicals and everything else in between Highest grossing live-action film of the year on lock

Looks like standard tickets are now on sale for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Am I reading this wrong or is Ungentlemanly Warfare doing $4M+ combined previews + EA Because the latter would be pretty wild

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/04/24 Monkey Man - 47 tickets sold The First Omen - 13 tickets sold COMPS Monkey Man 1.02x of The Beekeeper ($2.45M)* 0.90x of Argylle ($1.54M) AVERAGE: $2.00M The First Omen 0.77x of Imaginary ($554K) 1.00x of Immaculate (previews not reported here, comped with FRI+previews gets me $2.03M) AVERAGE (Thu): $554K A lot of my comps here are messed up by weird studio reporting. Beekeeper pure THU (what I tracked for it) wasn’t reported, so that $2.45M comp includes EA and THU, making it less than representative. And Immaculate THU just wasn’t reported at all, so I can’t use the comp. Overall, looks like First Omen underindexed here, and Monkey Man played about par. Predicting ~$20M OW for Monkey Man, and $7-8M for The First Omen.

Since it's a longer sales window, and from what I can see it's just PLFs, I would think Oppenheimer could actually work as a comp here if you have it. Otherwise I'd also throw out Dune since it was also a decently long-ish window and had EA, plus major PLF skew.

PLF tickets are now on sale for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Oh, and EA screenings on the 8th

Dungeons & Dragons fell off over 63% against Super Mario Bros despite it having an A- CS, the Easter holiday cushion, and Mario being a PG family film. Twisters’ drop against DP&W will undoubtedly be notably worse and could eclipse 65-70% if the movie isn’t super good