Getting a bit back on track, I think the weekend is headed for the 85-90m range. Personally leaning towards 85m or so for about 60% drop.
For comparison Homecoming and Lion King (releasing roughly around the same time) both dropped over 60% before recovering. So even if this drops higher than we hope it can still recover.
Fwiw I still fondly remember that short but intellectually titillating discussion. I learned a lot from your method to calculate 6 day OW. It helped set my up on my own exhilarating journey of BO analysis.