solaris
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Posts posted by solaris
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6 hours ago, justnumbers said:
Do we know if the WW total on BOM for Zone of Interest is correct? They have it at 33.6M Worldwide.
I assume so... Adding the reported grosses for each territory brings it to this total. It's probably up to at least $35/36m now as it stayed level in Germany this weekend, and has been performing well in Italy too. $40m WW would be an incredible result for a film like this.
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33 minutes ago, UKBoxOffice said:
Weekend
1. Dune £4.04m (-32%) (£26.20m)
2. WLL £589k (-35%) (£7.35m)
3. Migration £574k (-15%) (£19.03m)
4. Bob Marley £509k (-39%) (£16.03m)
5. Imaginary £406k (£-38%) (£1.37m)
6. Drive-Away Dolls £264k
19. Cabrini £42k
Solid numbers all round (Cabrini excepted but that was always going to be a non starter here)
How high can Dune go? £35m seems assured at this point... Wondering if Easter legs can help this stretch to £40m?
WLL quietly getting to £7.5m (with plenty of gas in the tank) and Migration and Marley both overperforming are all nice to see too.
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1 hour ago, Bob Train said:
Can Dune hit +$30m this weekend?
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53 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Voldy's implying Thursday could actually increase from Wednesday, which sounds kind of insane.
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17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
What does the exchange rate have to do with it?
I wonder if we’re not seeing a bigger jump like the US because we don’t have HBOMax, so the original wasn’t day and date here.
It's not helping if you're comparing the openings in USD (not saying that anyone here is, but that's how it'll be reported in the weekend write ups, and how UK opening weekend will be compared to Germany, France etc)
But yes, I agree - no day/date holding back part one opening as in US, and there were fewer (if any) covid restrictions still in place by the time this opened here in October vs rest of Europe in September (I think Germany and France both still had restrictions in place at that time, but I might be wrong). So a 50% increase is still pretty good.
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The first one opened with £5.8m
With £2.8m Friday and £3.6m Saturday this should get to at least £9m for the full weekend (+50% from part one). Weak exchange rate isn't helping but still a pretty good result.
BFI IMAX is sold out or near sold out for most of the next month... The only showings with vaguely decent seats left are Monday or Tuesday morning showings at the end of March.
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1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:
$11M was horrible
$12M - looks like EVERYTHING is back on the menu boys?!
Am I doing BOT correctly
$11m
$12m
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Are we doing Villeneuve rankings list now? Is that a yes?
Arrival
Sicario
Dune 1
Prisoners
Bladerunner 2049
Enemy
Haven't seen the francophone stuff... I need to rectify. Aside from Arrival, which was instantly one of my favourite films of all time, the ranking for everything else could shift. They're all great - as others have said, he's incredibly consistent. Enemy is brilliant but it's the one I would be least inclined to rewatch.
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29 minutes ago, Hatebox said:
All this Oscar talk isn’t quite as bad as when an MCU movie would come out with glowing reviews and fanboys would earnestly discuss best picture chances… but it’s not far off. Let’s talk again in ten months.
It's not really comparable to an MCU film though, is it? Villeneuve squarely sits in the capital A 'Auteur' camp that the academy loves (Nolan, Cameron). His first six films have been nominated for 28 oscars and won nine (including two best picture nominations - both in the sci-fi genre). Dunc 1 was nominated for 10 Oscars and won six. It's an adaptation of a beloved 20th century literary classic (see LOTR). Nearly all of the reviews praise Villeneuve's vision and highlight how dark and complex the film is for a big budget tentpole.
To be clear, I don't think this means Dune Part Two will *win* any major Oscars, but it almost certainly feels like this is the ordained choice for prestige big budget blockbuster that gets nominated in Best Picture - since expanding the ballot in 2009 there's almost always 1-2 represented (The Martian, Gravity, TGM, Avatar 1-2, Fury Road, District 9, and yes - Black Panther).
Joker 2 and Furiosa feel like much more unknown quantities - a musical Joker feels like it could be a big swing, and a big miss (too early to tell), and Fury Road was lightning in a bottle.
Based on the glowing reviews so far and Villeneuve's track record I'd bet good money on this ending up in Best Picture top 10 next year
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Obviously we are VERY early in the awards calendar for 2024, but it's a pretty desolate year in terms of contenders. This will absolutely dominate technical/artistic categories and should be a pretty strong contender for nominations in Picture/Director. Villeneuve is already starting to build an 'overdue' narrative. I wonder if either Walken or Butler could sneak into Supporting Actor too - Butler seems to be getting singled out a lot in the reviews.
I'm still not sure if this can break through a $200m ceiling in the US - a lot of reviews are mentioning how bizarre and bleak the film is. This does feel primed for some absolutely gargantuan numbers in Europe - maybe I'm drinking the kool aid but $50m here in UK doesn't feel like a stretch. Zendaya's vintage Mugler/C3PO shenanigans have more or less directly caused three work colleagues (all women) to check out Part One on Netflix.
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2 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:
Right, but if a powerful person points out the optics of Stone winning, it'll spread like wildfire.
By next weekend, Madame Web will have made more in the United States than Poor Things. I don't think people realize that, outside looking in, it'll look like Hollywood still has major race issues (which it, of course, absolutely does), and the Oscar will make headlines for all the wrong reasons. This is the year Barbie and Oppenheimer will drive audiences up more than the last several years. We already saw what happened just because Ryan Gosling got nominated, but Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie didn't.
And maybe Emma deserves the Oscar. I haven't seen the film. But politics have always been more important at the Oscars than any other award show.
In the many many months of online discourse and oscar watching about the race between Gladstone and Stone, not once have I seen Aloha mentioned as a strike against Stone. It came out 10 years ago, and as others have pointed out, she's already won an Oscar since then. Aloha is a non issue.
I didn't love Poor Things as much as others seem to, but Stone is undeniably brilliant. Hüeller would get my vote this year, but Stone is a worthy winner. Lily Gladstone is also great but it's a much quieter performance, and KOTFM has (sadly) lost it's way over the season.
As for Poor Things vs Madame Web box office - apples and oranges. One is a platform release from a Greek auteur who makes deliberately strange, unsettling, and not typically audience friendly films. The other is a $100m budgeted spin off from one of the most successful and bankable franchises out there. Poor Things is on track to clear $100m worldwide, and possibly a fair bit more. Although it's running out of steam domestically, it should scrape to $35-38m. Madame Web might eke out $50m if lucky. Poor Things might even end up with a higher Ww gross.
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The extremely positive reactions leave me even more confused as to where this will end up box-office wise. Hyperbolic takes comparing this to Dark Knight, Two Towers, ESB should surely indicate a huge breakout... But I'm still haunted by MI7. Dune is capital H Hard Sci Fi and it feels like there's a natural ceiling for this.
US - should see a very healthy increase based on HBO Max non-factor. Thinking $75m OW / $200m total (Logan-ish numbers)
UK/France/Germany/Spain/Italy - feels primed for a breakout in the big European markets. Villeneuve's sensibility is very Eurocentric - spectacle but *artistic*. And all these European premieres will help. UK - $45m / France - $40m / Germany - $35m / Spain - $20m / Italy -$20m
China - no idea... Any word on tracking? $40m as per Part One?
S Korea - $25m?
Australia - $20m?
WW total Dom+Intl - $630m
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Dune reactions...
Or rather when they are 🫡
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Certain artists' stories feel far more suited to a documentary format. Whitney and Amy's stories, both exploited by the industry to tragic ends, were both covered in two excellent documentaries.
Biopics where tragedy is mixed with noble redemption or absolution are far more appealing to audiences and suitable for dramatisation (see Elvis, BR, Marley etc)
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Feels like this is very well primed for huge numbers across Europe and NA. I have absolutely no idea how this will do in Asia or Latin America.... The first one was pretty unimpressive in both regions but not sure if that was COVID hangover or that it's just not a good fit for local tastes.
Any idea how this might be tracking in big markets like Mexico, S Korea etc?
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3 hours ago, Avatree said:
Trying to decide whether to go see the first one in imax this weekend. I did watch it when it came out and I thought it was super boring.
Has anyone rewatched it and found it improved on second viewing?
I’ve forgotten everything that happened in it, so dunno if I can be bothered with the second one. On the other hand, maybe a rewatch will change my mind.
I was pretty indifferent to Part One when it came out. Villeneuve's artistry is undeniable, but I found it to be a tad hollow and underwhelming.
I've re-watched three times since, and it grows on me with every watch. One of those rare 'big' films that plays better at home and in a more intimate setting... For example, the initial Harkonnen attack/ambush on Arrakis sequence was monotonously loud and overpowering on the big screen. I found it easier to follow and engage with when watching at home.
That said, I still *hate* the singing/wailing score motif. Usually love Zimmer but that bit of the score is like nails on a blackboard for me.
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2 hours ago, Parasite said:
Paris premiere on February 12.
Anyone know when we can expect first reactions? Or if there's a review embargo date?
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Definitely on the train for some big numbers in Europe. The first one did very well at the tail end of COVID (and in the shadow of No Time To Die - a behemoth across Europe). Can easily see UK, Germany and France combining for $100m together.
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14 hours ago, JonathanMB said:
The Oscar movies are all doing a great job of taking advantage of the lack of new releases (how many theaters is Miller's Girl even in?). Not sure how much they'll all increase, but I'm guessing the three not on VOD (Poor Things, American Fiction, Zone of Interest) should see healthy increases
I'll be interested to see what (if anything) Oppenheimer does over the next few weeks. Everyone who wants to see it has already seen it, but February is deader than a dodo. Surely a few big IMAX/PLM engagements would get some attention?
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I've never had less idea which way the box office could go for a sequel (particularly one where everything seems to be in it's favour for a big jump). My worry would be that there's always a natural ceiling for a hard sci-fi adaptation, but who knows.
Assuming it does explode domestically, I think there's some potential for big increases in Europe too. I know there was not HBO Max cannibalisation here, but the first one did very well at a time when audiences were barely back in cinemas here. Also, it was sandwiched between No Time to Die and No Way Home - both huge here (all time #3 and #4 in UK).
Stab in the dark first guess $75m OW/$190 DOM/$390 OS/$580 WW
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There's no grand conspiracy against Barbie (a film with 8 nominations), Greta Gerwig (who has 4 oscar nominations and 1 win for her first 3 films), or Robbie (2 acting nominations already).
The Director and Actress races are both incredibly stacked. Gerwig getting into Director was never a given (the Directors tend to male more leftfield nominations in recent years, and this is one of the strongest years ever for Directors), and whilst Robbie not getting into Actress is surprising (and I agree - she *should* be there), much like DiCaprio in Killers, she's gone from being a sure thing a few months ago to slipping into the 5th/6th/7th position for the last month. I was hoping Greta Lee might sneak in, but Bening isn't out of nowhere given she showed up at SAG. I'd imagine it was a very tight race for that 5th slot between the three of them.
The Academy is not a shadowy cabal making group decisions, but a group of individuals voting for the films/performances they like or think are deserving. Oppenheimer dominating isn't a sign of ingrained misogyny - it's a critically acclaimed WW2 era ensemble biopic directed by one of the most celebrated directors working today. It's got Oscar written all over it (and a lot of people really liked it).
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2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:
Would it be a hot take to say that Nolan is the least deserving of these 5 Director noms? 👀
It's definitely the strongest Best Director line up in years - all very deserving of their place. They each directed the hell out of those films (haven't seen Zone Of Interest yet but Glazer is a meticulous director).
That being said - no one on this planet could have pulled Oppenheimer off save for Nolan. I'll be very happen if (when) he wins.
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Zone of Interest is my most anticipated out of the contenders I've yet to see (heading to a preview on Sunday in London). Under the Skin is one of my all time faves so I'm very happy to see Glazer get a Best Director nomination.
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I'm hoping this follows the pattern established by Ridley's two previous 'true' sequels (Hannibal and Covenant) - beautiful, painterly film-making mixed with truly queasy, baroque horror (the Pazzi hanging in Hannibal, the backburster sequence in Covenant) and wonderfully out of place campy villainy (Gary Oldman/hammy Hopkins or Michael Fassbender playing homoerotic flute with himself).
Batshit Ridley Scott might not always be good, but it's sure as hell fun to watch (see also - The Counselor)
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Alien: Romulus | August 16, 2024 | Fede Alvarez | See the original Alien in theaters on April 26
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Great teaser. The Alien franchise has a great track record in teasers and trailers and this is no exception.
The Alien franchise is very close to my heart (probably obvious with the avatar there...), and even though Prometheus and Covenant were disappointments - they were Ridley Scott disappointments, so at the very least they were both visually stunning, and had lofty pretentions (that the storytelling and script couldn't hold up). I still think the backburster sequence - while narratively nonsensical - is a brilliantly executed bit of gruesome chaos.
I really really hope that this doesn't suck. It's an excellent teaser and I have faith Fede can deliver a genuinely scary (and gory) Alien film. The cinematographry and set design looks great - fingers crossed he can bring the right tone and atmosphere to match.
No idea how this will perform, but if Alien Covenant can get to $250m WW then I see no reason why a (hopefully) decent and well reviewed Alien Romulus can't cross $200m WW (Covenant had universally appalling legs everywhere). I'd like to think the Alien franchise still has a modicum of prestige - but I appreciate that I'm slightly biased!