chenguonk
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Posts posted by chenguonk
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So THG almost catches up with HP7.2 now, wow...
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The numbers you mentioned here are in two different frames. One should always compare numbers from the same source. That is to say, in this case, $79M is estimated from Chinese online tracking as explained by firedeep, while $74M is the official number reported by the Chinese media. One can assume them from the same source (this is not really true of courseThis is fantastic news, but it begs the question, how the hell did the numbers jump so much?First it was 79 mill, then 58 (WTF) and then 67 and then up to 74. Do they have clowns running the box office, monkeys punching in numbers?
)On the other hand, I guess both $58M and $67M are reported by the Fox company. If the so-called box office stealing behavior exists (this is not necessarily real stolen, maybe someone just doestn't want oversea companies get too much share. Anyway, this is just a guess), then it's easy to understand why oversea companies always report a number less than Chinese official report.So if one looks at the two differences again: $5M (79-74) and $ 9M (67-58), it is more reasonable now. Why the company estimate (58) is far less than the company actual (67)? In my opinion, they applied a normal model to do Sunday projection. However, in the record-breaking case, e.g. TF3 or Titanic 3D, the Sunday drop will be much better, as indicated by the online tracking. If they projected a 35% Sunday drop while it turned out 15%, that's around $3.4M in difference. Subtracted this, the difference between company estimate/actual, and the difference between Chinese estimate/actual, are almost the same: $5M v.s. $5.6M. What if they projected even worse? :rolleyes:Finally, no matter where the $5M difference comes from ( 1-stolen, 2-failed online tracking, 3-large uncertainty in Chinese box office statistics, etc), it is much more acceptable than those $20M gap 
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Great job! That's an excellent reportFiredeep, Tuesday 14:00PM update:
Weekly Box Office (4.09 ~ 4.15):
Titanic 3D Scored Record-breaking 468M yuan (74M $) Opening
WeeklyTitanic 3D 468M yuan (74M $) new
Love in The Buff 春娇与志明 10.7M yuan (1.7M $) -74%
R.T.T 10.6M yuan (1.6M $) new
Wrath of the Titans 9.5M yuan (1.5M $) -91%
New York Assassination 7.8M yuan (1.2M $) new
Blood Stained Shoes 绣花鞋 6.9M yuan (1.1M $) -75%
The Unfortunate Car 车在囧途 6.9M yuan (1.1M $) -65%
Love On That Day 爱在那一天 5M yuan (0.8M $) new
John Carter 3.03M yuan (0.48M $) -90%
Huang Dao Qing Wei Liao荒岛情未了 2M yuan (0.31M $) new
Cume
Titanic 3D 468M yuan (74M $)
Love in The Buff 春娇与志明 69.7M yuan (11.05M $)
R.T.T 10.6M yuan (1.6M $)
Wrath of the Titans 163.9M yuan (26M $)
New York Assassination 7.8M yuan (1.2M $)
Blood Stained Shoes 绣花鞋 43.2M yuan (6.8M $)
The Unfortunate Car 车在囧途 27.5M yuan (4.3M $)
Love On That Day 爱在那一天 5M yuan (0.8M $)
John Carter 262.53M yuan (41.6M $)
Huang Dao Qing Wei Liao荒岛情未了 2M yuan (0.31M $)
First place dominates James Cameron's Titanic 3D, the first 3D re-release ever in China, which grossed a history-best (opening) week for a single movie with 468M yuan, or 74M $ according to the Official Chinese Report, drawing in more than 10.5M admissions from 4,500 screens of 3,500 locations with more than 11,000 shows from its 6 days opening week. One thing to note, the original Titanic collected 44M $ with 1,800 admissions in 1998, remaining the highest gross film in the country for 11 years until the release of "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen." And now its 3D re-release is already 68% ahead the gross of its original. One of the bunches records the 3D re-release crushed in its first week run is that It bested former OW record holder, TF3 with 404M yuan (62M) from last July, with 64M yuan ahead. And in dollars, the gap is a more impressive 12M $. It is also the very first release in China to achieve 10M admissions on opening week. And it already claimed all time #1 re-release, #1 3D release and #1 3D re-release after only 6 days run. The fourth time James Cameron release in China is on projection to earn another 100M for the rest of its theatrical run.
Losing most of its 3D screens to Titanic 3D, The Titans, instead of wrath, but crashed last week, took in only 9.5M yuan (1.5M $), down hefty 91% with a cume of 26M $ after 3 weekends in theatres. Also down 90%, John Carter should drop out of top 10 next week for a total gross of about 42M $.
Thanks to the eye-poping 468M yuan opening of Titanic 3D, the Top 10's combined 530M yuan gross was up 300% from the same week last year and 112% from last week this year. It is also 10.8% ahead of previous biggest week leading by the opening of TF3 last July.
Titanic 3D daily break down (in $):
Mid 1.6M
Tue 10M w/o mid
Wed 10.5M +5%
Thu 9M -14%
Fri 11.5M +27%
Sat 17M +48%
Sun 14.5M -15%
6 days total: 74M, biggest opening week EVER !
And your color coding makes the reading easier. Thanks!
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> firedeep:It takes me a while to get used to your new avatar.
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Let's wait for the actual number on Tuesday. Here the actual number refers to the Chinese official report, not the BOM report.Your China sources screwed up again, it's nowhere near $80m for 6-day. Even though $58m is huge and i should be cheery, i'm not. Thank you for that.
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What the company reports is one thing, which indicates how much they can get, however, what the actual box office is is another thing.The official numbers directly from China are always higher than that reported by the company. Obviously the former is more close to the actual box office. We all know the reason behind.Actuals won't go up by over $20m, will they? Have they ever?
Yes, the estimates might be higher than the Chinese official numbers. We should also notice that the Chinese official numbers are always higher than that reported on BOM.
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I guess it's too difficult for the Avengers, considering that even all the released Marvel movies combined cannot reach the OW level of Titanic 3D...I would be so happy if Avengers did Titanic 3D numbers
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No. It's just a normal week when students are in school and adults are at work.Is there some kind of holiday this week in China, or is it just coinciding with the sinking?
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I guess the $11.4M OD figure comes from here:http://www.weibo.com/2196767901/ye1cH3WgPThe last sentence said Titanic 3D did $4M OD in the US, however, $11.4 OD in China.The host of this weibo (or Chinese twitter) has reported a lot of estimates in the past. I would say most of them are close to the final official numbers.
)On the other hand, I guess both $58M and $67M are reported by the Fox company. If the so-called box office stealing behavior exists (this is not necessarily real stolen, maybe someone just doestn't want oversea companies get too much share. Anyway, this is just a guess), then it's easy to understand why oversea companies always report a number less than Chinese official report.So if one looks at the two differences again: $5M (79-74) and $ 9M (67-58), it is more reasonable now. Why the company estimate (58) is far less than the company actual (67)? In my opinion, they applied a normal model to do Sunday projection. However, in the record-breaking case, e.g. TF3 or Titanic 3D, the Sunday drop will be much better, as indicated by the online tracking. If they projected a 35% Sunday drop while it turned out 15%, that's around $3.4M in difference. Subtracted this, the difference between company estimate/actual, and the difference between Chinese estimate/actual, are almost the same: $5M v.s. $5.6M. What if they projected even worse? :rolleyes:Finally, no matter where the $5M difference comes from ( 1-stolen, 2-failed online tracking, 3-large uncertainty in Chinese box office statistics, etc), it is much more acceptable than those $20M gap 
Yes, the estimates might be higher than the Chinese official numbers. We should also notice that the Chinese official numbers are always higher than that reported on BOM.
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted