Cmasterclay
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Posts posted by Cmasterclay
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Bad Boys as a franchise plays like Avengers: Endgame in my area, so unfortunately any insights will be totally useless, but I can say it's at least selling well in South Florida so far - the bare minimum!
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3 hours ago, Flopped said:
I've also heard it's bad. Do we trust that Empire nutjob claiming it's good and could be a mini breakout? Or is it all part of his "if you suggest theatres are in trouble, I'll cut your throat in the night" agenda?
I trust Empire less than any other person on the planet. I heard a couple people say it was good on a much more reliable source - Reddit.
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Bad Boys may very well do over 50m OW, but I figured 50m OW would be a given and we would be debating whether it could cross 62m of the last one, not debating whether it would hit 50m. Regardless, I find the Watchers much more bleak - apparently good, tons of trailer views, lots of marketing, easy hook, and something of a brand name for horror with the Shams stuff. I would have bet 25/80 a couple months ago. Now even EmpireCity has dropped all pretense of it breaking out, and double digits OW looks a stretch. That's the kind of stuff I find bleak.
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8 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:
Still relevant Clay. You don’t seem very happy with box office stuff anymore, and I don’t think it’s good to spend time with a hobby that makes you miserable.
I appreciate the concern. The numbers, not the May numbers but the June tracking numbers and presales, are what has me down. I've been saying for months that this year will start to turn around in June and July. But I'm not seeing that now in the June data we have so far, and I'm not seeing it for something like Twisters based on that either, and it's got me down. A couple of weeks ago I was the hopeful one and you were saying that only NTCs will survive. When the numbers are this bad all of us are gonna have shitty weekends and bleak posts sometimes.
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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Calm down, it's doing at least 50M.
But this is not what the numbers say. I certainly hope I'm wrong. In fact, I was predicting like a John Wick 4 level opening for months and months. I could still be wrong and I'd be happy as fuck. But we can't just say things are happening because we want them to. Shawn's tracking which bakes in the late surge Bad Boys For Life has it under 50m. The tracking thread has tons of numbers - several trackers show a slow pace, and Keyser has been clear he finds the pace unimpressive. These predictions are already ASSUMING that it has a huge late surge - without that late surge being baked in to predictions, it's looking closer to under 40 than over 50.
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I am deleting this post because I did not double check the rules on gambling before posting it, and do not want to violate anything the board has on that.
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Just now, grim22 said:
Their ratings have dropped huge since Mania. Went from 2.3M for post Mania to 1.6M last week. The mania build and the return of The Rock and others was keeping the rating artificially high and it just died after that.
It's still up YoY most weeks when most linear TV (including Dynamite) is down YoY every week. Since the Monday Night Wars ended it generally sees a sharp decline after Mania due to NBA/NHL playoffs and a lack of thrilling booking. It definitely isn't quite the boom it looked like in March though, I agree.
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2 minutes ago, AJG said:
Meanwhile WWE is on FIRE!
Come see The Queen Nia Jax kill this little Irish girl
What's funny is that WWE was way early on the "struggle to create new stars and adapt to a new world" train - being run by a senile sex monster doesn't help - and now is having a major boom when every other industry is suffering. Maybe these things cycle. Or maybe Trips really is the Booker of the Year.
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2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
I thought NFL ratings were also slipping
Nah they did a bit during Trump years but now they're higher than ever. It's our last monoculture left.
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6 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
Yeah I see what you mean. I suppose Millennials were the last generation where radio play was a thing and those artists all had hit songs in the early 2010s that would play on Top 40 radios. I wonder how Eillish and Rodrigo were even able to build up their standing enough to be widely known. I only started listening to Rodrigo last year too, so it's not like I was always on the ground floor with them.
It's everything, man. Sports outside the NFL really struggling too, NBA is desperate to keep LeBron and Curry around for ratings and Shohei is probably the only mom-test level star baseball has created since Jeter retired. I don't even see any big new fast food chains or clothing stores pop up anymore. Gaming, like film, is struggling to create new IP to make sequels and franchises off of since around since the mid 2010s. It's not just nostalgia for the good old days. It is tangibly harder to create new stars, new brands, new IP in every single commercial industry in America except the mighty mighty NFL. We just have too much content, too much options, too much technology - I don't know how it ever reverses back tbh.
Not even trying to be negative with this post. Just an observation of our new reality as a culture.
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3 minutes ago, CJohn said:
Xbox has tanked beyond belief and Microsoft is turning into a publisher. Playstation sales have come to a halt and it is starting to fall behind the PS4. Switch sales are also crashing with the Switch 2 looming. Overall 2024 has been an atrocious year for console gaming.
I'm more a casual gamer (I have a PS5 and play three or so days a week, usually sports or very well reviewed games like RDR or Uncharted etc), and if we're talking so much product issues in movies, I think this year's slate of games looks far, far worse. I think the Star Wars game is probably the only 2024 game I'll buy and that's only if reviews are good. I haven't seen a less compelling new games year in awhile tbh. Which is weird cuz last couple years have had alot of great ones I couldn't wait to play.
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8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
I mean there's artists like Billie Eillish and Olivia Rodrigo who are still in their early 20s, so I wouldn't go that far.
Sure, of course there is a new bubble of big stars, but it's never been this disproportionate of people who were already big stars or at least close (Kendrick, Future, Miley). It's certainly not entirely the same people as in high school - my point is more that the stars of 2012 were much more skewed to people that weren't around in 1998 than the stars of 2024, which feature a whole lot of 2012 stars.
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5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
As someone that does not follow the music industry whatsoever, this was very informative thank you. Anyone got anything similar for video games, since I've heard the console market isn't doing well.
Maybe entertainment is just dead.
That's what I'm always on about. It's not just the box office at all. Our entire cultural sphere seems fundamentally broken by technology and siloing. That's why the biggest music stars are still like the people when I was in fucking high school (I'm almost 31 now). Drake, Beyonce, Taylor Swift, etc. Society has lost most of its ability to get people excited about the same crossover things anymore. We are being buried under "choice."
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1 minute ago, Maggie said:
Oh. I'm not worried about BB4. BB3 was similarly tracking low and surprised everybody.
I think he is using Bad Boys 3 as a baseline - I don't think he's making that prediction in a vacuum. Keyser's talking about the slow pace too. At this point, the predictions in the 50s are ASSUMING that it has this late surge, which seems likely but isn't a guarantee
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1 hour ago, Eric Lasagna said:
Well, I guess we'll have to move on, accept that the box office is dead forever, and perhaps just pretend to ourselves that Bad Boys opening in the 40s is good actually. I'm sure TV ratings forums, music sales forums, etc. have long accepted the old ways are dead and are never coming back and have found ways to cope with how low things are. And I suggest, at some point, you're gonna have to do the same. Whether you want to or not.
I agree with this unironically and have said as much about other industries! Still depressing though.
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27 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Bad Boys 4 is NOT doing under 50M. Where did that come from?
That is the number Shawn predicted today based on tracking and presales data he has access too, though that is the median of the range - there is higher possibilities included in his predictions.
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8 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:
No offense, but I think you really need a break from this place if this is really hurting your mental health this badly. Your happiness being this reliant on box office numbers wouldn't even be good if the business was booming, and, like I always tell people, it's not like you can't just talk about movies elsewhere on other movie forums that aren't as focused on box office numbers. It makes no sense to hang out around a place you hate.
It's not affecting my larger mental health, but I don't really get how much joy it can bring any of us when the numbers are this bad. We all deserve good numbers or else this entire premise of this great place is bleak. That's my point.
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Shawn's latest forecast drops Bad Boys below 50 and Watchers down to nearly single digits. Quiet Place sales pacing ahead of Insidious last year, but that doesn't mean anything considering this will have a much weaker close and it's selling below Halloween Ends which also had a stronger close. It's just not good stuff, folks. I don't know how much longer I can keep doing this with these kind of shit numbers before I lose any pleasure in following this stuff and annoy the entire board if I haven't already.
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Possible that Dune, KFP, Challengers,Beekeeper, Fall Guy, IF, Garfield, and Furiosa all hit 3x multipliers from their 3 days, and Godzilla and Civil War and Apes all have relatively nice legs too. One tiny bright spot in this shitty year is that only Marley and Ghostbusters truly died after OW.
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Looks fine enough but sad to see Clooney inexplicably playing a charmless grump yet again, thought this would be a chance to get Out of Sight/Danny Ocean George back in our lives.
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Already has ten times the buzz in the places I follow (too many Disney adults around me because of theater + Florida) than Inside Out 2 trailer did. I know Moana made less money than IO in theaters but I've seen a decade worth of Moana themed parties and costumes and watch parties that I never saw for Inside Out. I think this ends up bigger assuming Trump doesn't outlaw Disney once he gets elected.
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32 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
Movies existed then too
Yep, by the hundreds and many of them made tons of money. Now there's gonna be like 15 movies a year top that make good money (inflation adjusted across eras) and 100 wide releases or less as more and more and more gets moved to streaming.
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People used to ride horses into town to go to the blacksmith.
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Well, for those hoping Bad Boys or Watchers will inject some hope, I would not recommend checking the tracking thread!
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Weekend Numbers | May 31-Jun 02, 2024 | actuals | 14.01M GARFIELD | 10.78M FURIOSA | 10.51M IF | 8.97M APES
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Hit Man was so so good, worth the long drive to go see. In 2018 we would have been absolutely melting down when it inevitably opened to 18m OW, now if it came out and did that number we would all treat it like the second coming.