Cmasterclay

7.4 previews 21.6 Friday 24 Saturday 18 Sunday 71 OW from a 29m OD.

Now that's what I'm talking about. It's still below my 8m prediction but much, much better. I predicted it would do 10x its preview for an OW of 80m, so I'll naturally lower that to 74m.

Very possible, I put it right around the same.

A few months ago I was tempted to make a Pet Sematary OW > Shazam OW club. I am off that now due to the relatively strong word on Shazam and the smash success of Aquaman, but I still think Pet Sematary is good for a breakout - Stephen King properties are hot, horror is hot, nostalgia is hot, and reviews/trailers are good. I could see 40m OW!

6m is better, probably puts it on track for 55-65 instead of AQP or the Nun numbers. I predicted 8m for previews so that's my bar (80m weekend).

I get that, and Cool Eric pointed this out too, but I guess the discrepancy that led me to underpredict it is that.....Halloween movies never really made that much money? The highest ones adjust to 120m or so IIRC. H20 was marketed as almost the exact same thing as Halloween 18 and it made peanuts compared to it even after adjusting. Like would a well marketed Friday the 13th do 60m+? Because in terms of box office and merch sales and stuff like that....its just as popular, I'd say. I've never really felt Halloween as a brand to be that popular outside of the horror niche, and empirically it doesn't look like it either. Also slasher films are my least favorite movies so...….I need to learn this stuff.

I think this is probably the answer. I can almost guarantee that Us will make more than Halloween in Broward County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, or DC, or even New York, but it won't do near what Halloween did throughout small towns and rural, whiter areas with high school kids throughout the rest of America. It is market bias on my part.

Also I think that so much of movie sales occur online (and it's more every weekend) as presale seat pickers that it's pretty much pointless to even look at presales anymore until we get more comparisons from the year of release. It changes too much every year that old data is pretty much useless. Who walks up anymore? I bet 80 percent of Us' sales will come online compared to 50 percent if it had been released March 2018 and 30 percent in March 2017 (estimated numbers but you get my point). Pretty much the final straw for me taking presales seriously ever.

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

That is......really not great, considering the amount of buzz and the presales. Very disappointing if it goes anything under 6.5m tbh. I've been pushing this film hard as anyone but that number would br an objective letdown. I saw a pretty reliable person reporting that Tines Square AMC only had one sellout and had cancelled alot of late showings due to lack of tickets. Trying to stay optimistic but I have a very bad fedling about this. I loved the movie but my crowd was very subdued and the group of friends I was with hated it. It is a more challenging and heady movie than Get Out. Not the crowdpleaser. I loved it but.....yea. Might go a little over people's heads tbh.

Man I really want to be excited for this (love the Manson stuff, QT, and the cast), but I don't really like the trailer - looks very stale. I don't need another zany ensemble comedy about Hollywood or another late 60s/early 70s LA period piece that acts as a low grade Chinatown ripoff. I'm just not into this style, feels too familiar. This looks alot like The Nice Guys, which I....liked less than most people.

My social groups are by no means reflective of the movie going public, but just going on anecdotal evidence this has way, way, way more hype than say.....Halloween. And the presales are putting it pretty close to the same level as that too. I said 75m+ when the first trailer dropped and I'm sticking to it. Already got my tickets for Thursday night, a rare night off for me!

The movie we really need

My in depth analysis of this news: yeaaaaaaaa boiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Looking at my areas and all tracking data, I'd put it in the 15-17 range for previews and between 145-165 for OW, which isn't quite Kal-El level range from me but yea its pretty bad. Just feels a little unpredictable. I could easily see it doing GOTG 2 numbers but the potential is there for more. Around me its not doing great on a per screen basis but its doing at least pretty good in all of them and it just has SO MANY fucking screenings that will add up.