Cmasterclay

Watched Trial of Chicago 7 - lock for screenplay and SAG ensemble and probably Picture, but there's not one single performance that gets enough shine for me to think who would get an Oscar nomination - I guess Baron Cohen would be my best guess, though Rylance also has a shot. Can also see it missing Director - it looks like a TV pilot. I feel like Hopkins and Boseman are as prohibitive as favorites at this point as anyone in awhile - and unless Viola Davis or Hudson blows away, McDormand is gonna be hard to beat too. Supporting Actress, idk.

Hubie Halloween for Best Picture?

Soul could have a real shot, but the double whammy of Pixar snubs/Disney+ could hurt it. The reviews are there for it though, especially in a thin field.

I was coming in here to say this exact thing! I still have Hudson top of my list for Best Actress, even over McDormand.

It's not going to be any better by then. Theaters are all about to go totally out of business. No movies until December now at minimum.

Isn't that the question of the day?

Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting excellent notices (no reviews but lots of tweets from credible critics). Probably an across the board contender but no clear acting standout in crowded cast.

Honestly the kind of movie that actually wins Oscars lol

Best Picture 1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (call it a hunch) 2. Nomadland 3. French Dispatch (it is completed and a very logical February release) 4. One Night in Miami 5. News of the World 6. The Father 7. Judas and the Black Messiah (again, assuming release) 8. Soul 9. Respect (could be the first big hit back) Alts: Da Five Bloods and Mank Best Director 1. Chloe Zhao 2. Wes Anderson 3. George C. Wolfe 4. Regina King 5. Paul Greengrass Best Actor 1. Daniel Kayuula 2. Tom Hanks 3. Anthony Hopkins 4. Delroy Lindo 5. Kingsley Ben-Adair Best Actress 1. Jennifer Hudson 2. Frances McDormand 3. Viola Davis 4. Vanessa Kirby 5. Michelle Pfeiffer Best Supporting Actor 1. Chadwick Boseman (category fraud) 2. David Stratharin 3. LaKeith Stanfield 4. Someone from French Dispatch (idk who is the lead of this shit) 5. Tom Burke Best Supporting Actress 1. Helena Zengal 2. Someone from the French Dispatch (idk) 3. Rashida Jones 4. Olivia Colman 5. Ellyn Burstyn I am not a believer in Trial of Chicago 7 (the photos + Sorkin = woof) or Hillbilly Elegy, though would love to be proven wrong on the former!!

This is "Herman Cain tweeting from beyond the grave about coronavirus not being bad" levels of delusional insanity.

Not to bag on Han's predictions (they are mostly good and he did a thorough and realistic job) but I have no reason to believe Pieces of a Woman is anything more than a Kirby play, especially since Netflix bought it. I'd certainly put One Night in Miami above it in Best Picture, given reviews and the dearth of black-led and non-Netflix movies.

Mark Wahlberg winning Best Actor the year after Parasite win and the same year as Zhao/Yeun nominations:

I am very much against them delaying the Oscars but at a certain point you're running out of non-Netflix contenders then.

McDormand and Zhao are very real win possibilities, but my hot take on the Best Picture in this particular year is that it is going to be something either very topical (Judas/Trial of Chicago 7) or pure escapism (The French Dispatch etc) and Nomadland doesn't quite hit either of them tbh.

I almost made a joke when the trailer dropped that this looked like a Friedberg and Seltzer parody of Portrait of a Woman on Fire and other LGBT period movies - but I assumed that it would come through quality wise in the end. Guess not!