Cmasterclay

I do think Candyman is going to get a review boost, because I have it on fairly good authority from a couple friends that it is pretty great. But it's def in a dump spot marketing and date wise.

To be fair, and I'm saying this as a white guy, but because of my hometown and friend group I tend to overestimate films that appeal to a black audience, and Candyman obviously is one. But I don't think I overestimate it THAT much. When the first trailer dropped it was like dropping a bomb on my social feeds. Everyone shared it.

I got the trailer alot during the Finals but didn't realize it was HBO Max release for some reason. I'd drop it to 8m based on that, but think it can do more than Green Knight/Stillwater. I thought Free Guy was PA.

I think all of these predictions are fair but I will die on the hill that y'all are wild underestimating Candyman.

Hugh Jackman draw power >>>>>>> Ryan Reynolds draw power, though I will admit that Free Guy has more marketing and an easier hook. If Reynolds is the most overrated draw in Hollywood, I actually think the leading man version of Jackman (not Chappie/Eddie the Eagle Jackman) is the most underrated.

The trailer for Free Guy made me want to drive my car off a bridge and Ryan Reynolds is the most overrated box office "star" on the planet, but I very well could have blinders on here so fair enough.

I had it doing 40m OW before COVID, so that reduction is actually quite a bit more than my usual COVID prediction penalty of about 33%. They've done a terrible job restarting marketing on it and it has a bad release date. But when the initial trailer dropped, you could have easily sold me on 50m OW (I probably would have been the one doing the selling tbh)

If the situation with Delta stays exactly the same - more cases but also better vaccinations - my predictions for August are: Suicide Squad - 32m OW Respect - 14m OW Free Guy - 11m OW Don't Breathe - 13m OW Reminiscence - 12m OW Candyman - 19m OW I'm not usually big on exact predictions instead of ranges, but I think it is important to calibrate expectations in advance these days and adjust based on the health and market situation.

Great number for Jungle Cruise, probably the best opening of the summer since F9 on balance.

It is beyond a miracle. It is the most effective vaccine ever (significantly more effective than yearly flu, polio, or chickenpox) and it was developed in the shortest time period ever. People undersell this - it is one of the greatest scientific achievements in American history. We could have easily had no vaccine until 2025, and a shitty J&J type one when it happened.

Delta variant certainly could scare things out of theaters but Gopher is right on the money in so many ways. The fact is, the last year of delays occurred with an end goal in mind - buy us time until the vaccine is widely available throughout the country. But we don't have another end goal. The vaccine is available and it works about as well as a vaccine could realistically work. People are either going to take it or not, but there's really no other solution left except for everyone to either get vaccinated or get sick. The next set of delays and restrictions (both film and otherwise) would co

That's not bad for Jungle Cruse at all. I think it ends up right around Space Jam 2 numbers personally. Disappointing for Green Knight, clearly overperformed in certain city markets.

I'm startled how much play I'm seeing this get in my social feeds. Trailer def got attention, let's see if it translates into anything.

Anecdotally I've seen more casual movie friends share this trailer than anything in quite awhile. Think alot of people are underestimating the breakout hit potential here.

Fart noise