Cmasterclay

After further analysis of the schedule/released trailers, I've adjusted my predictions for this year from "terrible box office year" to "terrible box office year in terms of top-level, 400m hits, but more 150m range breakouts than the last few years."

Yea its starting to feel like a move into lockdom now. This should have been Once Upon's to lose if it was gonna win.

Bad Boys has pretty much sold out every showing the entire weekend here, but this is the number one market in the country for this movie.

This would have been the biggest lock to win Best Picture ever as recently as 10 years ago, but right now.....I still got my money on Once Upon. If George McKay gets nominated or something though yea I'll change my tune.

My final predictions, in order of confidence, for the big categories Picture Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Parasite 1917 The Irishman Marriage Story Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Ford v Ferrari Alt 1: The Two Popes Alt 2: Knives Out Alt 3: Uncut Gems Director Quentin Tarantino Sam Mendes Joon Ho Martin Scorsese Taika Waititi Alt 1: Todd Phillips Alt 2: Greta Gerwig Alt 3: Pedro Aldomovar Actor Joaquin Phoenix Adam Driver Leonardo DiCaprio Taron Egerton Antonio Banderas Alt 1: Jonathan Pryce Alt 2: Robert De Niro Alt 3: Adam Sandler Actress Renee Zellwegger Scarlett Johannson Charlize Theoren Cynthia Ervio Saorsie Ronan Alt 1: Lupita Nyong'o Alt 2: Awkwafina Alt 3: Alfre Woodard, for old times sake Supporting Actor Brad Pitt Al Pacino Joe Pesci Tom Hanks Jamie Foxx Alt 1: Anthony Hopkins Alt 2: Song Kang Ho Alt 3: Willem Dafoe Supporting Actress Laura Dern Margot Robbie (Bombshell) Scarlett Johansson Jennifer Lopez Nicole Kidman Alt 1: Florence Pugh Alt 2: Kathy Bates Alt 3: Zhao Shuzen Weirdddddd year. Really tough to predict

Liked it more than I expected, mostly because MacKay brought more emotional heft to the movie than I thought it would have. It feels a bit routine but I also can't find anything about it that wasn't really good, ya know?

I think my actual no guts no glory prediction might be Tom Hanks missing it instead of Hopkins - really seems like a lack of momentum, but I said the same thing about Duvall in 2014 and he kept showing up everywhere too. Just Mercy seemed to get a blast of positive buzz justttt before nominations ended so I'm very tempted to put Foxx in there tbh.

Feels like one of the potential weirdest days for noms in years, given the uncertainty ii the fifth spot for Director and the Supporting Categories and both of the final two spots in Actor and Actress. Picture is the only thing that doesn't feel like there's much wild potential. I don't have a no guts no glory prediction but if I did it'd be something like Pedro Almodovar in Director - they love their foreign director choices and the same smart people that were buzzing about Pawel last year are suddenly saying to watch out for Pedro this time...they could just be trying to catch the same prediction lightning again though.

It's almost identical to Lone Survivor on the exact same weekend - which was an easily marketable modern war movie with "America, fuck yeah" heartland appeal and Mark Wahlberg right before everyone realized he was a jackass. I predicted like 20m for 1917 until I saw tracking, honestly. I came into this thread and thought I must have been asleep at the wheel, only to find people saying it's bad.

Anything over 30m is tremendous for 1917 - it's a very British World War I movie with zero real starpower attached in January. This ain't American Sniper folks - it ain't even Dunkirk. Likely heading towards 35m, which is excellent for this kind of movie.

That was the Norbit of acceptance speeches

Did Joaquin Phoenix....not stop playing the Joker yet?

I feel like the Supporting Actor category is getting primed for a surprise, with Hanks, Hopkins, and Foxx all having zippo momentum. Would not be stunned to see Dafoe or Rockwell pop up there.

Little Women and Uncut Gems disappointing and Ford v Ferrari/Knives Out having somewhat mediocre legs after their big openings have done a number on me combined with the Star Wars stuff. Like I was predicting 120m for 1917 and 60m for Just Mercy for a long time but now I've dropped that to 75/40 respectively.

I love you guys and love you both for doing this, but the thing is every year your predictions would make it the greatest year in box office history, when in reality the box office is slow, shitty, and nothing really breaks out now except MCU and Disney remakes. I recommend lowering everything by 30%. A Quiet Place 2 seems like one of the more obvious steep drops in recent memory - it's like the Ted 2 of horror movies. Novelty gonna novelty. Mulan gonna threaten 400m tho.