Cmasterclay
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Posts posted by Cmasterclay
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I think Wicked and Venom both breakout to offset these disappointments somewhat but given the billion dollar deficit against 2023, it's not gonna be quite enough. A good effort though.
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Gonna be down to 22 100m films this year if that keeps up. Tough. What I do find interesting is that the consensus before the pandemic had been "there are no bad months anymore, release things anytime!" and I think after the last two years that paradigm might shift back a bit. Between the NFL and the election, it feels like the energy is a bit sapped from movies right now. Obviously Beetlejuice did well, but that was before both the NFL and the debate.
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Every September opening had their Thursday previews overestimated in the tracking thread - then Beetlejuice did terrific over the weekend and Transformers One/Speak No Evil didn't. We shall see about Wild Robot, but lean towards the former. For next year, worth perhaps building this in to post-summer preview tracking model. Then again, I'm just an observer, not a tracker, so don't mind me.
Joker better hope that it isn't being overestimated because then it might make negative money.
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Original movies always a concern but more I worry that moviegoing could be increasingly seasonal, tbh.
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4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:
How is Joker doing? Is accelerating?
Based on reports here, it is definitely accelerating.....straight into the guardrail at 150mph.
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Wouldn't have predicted this thread becoming 2024's biggest cesspool over Joker or Deadpool or something, but here we are.
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Knocks out another potential 100m grosser from the 2024 till, looking like 23 or so now. Need Wild Robot and a non-Sonic/Mufasa December release to overperform.
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57 minutes ago, dudalb said:
I have a radical idea: why not see the movie before making any judgements?
He claims that he doesn't need to because he read a magazine article and can guess the plot.
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Still don't think Brody winning. Not beloved as a person in the industry enough to be a two time winner IMO. I still buy Domingo as win competitive - I know people are writing the movie off due to shitty release, but it will play better on the campaign trail and Domingo himself is obviously such an asset. I think him or Fiennes are the favorites, though obviously Brody (and Chalamet) have shots.
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11 hours ago, stripe said:
Yeah
I agree that this year is a very unpredictable race, and it's fun. Anyways, the race lacks a strong popular candidate. Right now, from the contenders, only Dune 2 looks like a true BO hit.From the ones already seen, strong contenders:
Anora
Brutalist
Conclave
Dune 2
Emilia Perez
Life of Chuck
Room Next Door
Sing Sing
In contention:
Challengers
Civil War
Nickel Boys
Substance
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Babygirl
Not seen but strong on paper:
A Complete Unknown
Blitz
Gladiator 2
Here
Juror #2
Do I miss something?
I'd say Queer, Maria, and Piano Lesson all have acting contenders. Outside chance Nosferatu is really great too, highly doubt it gets in unless it's just incredible. All We Imagine As Light might be hanging around as much as Sacred Fig is. Saturday Night is taking lots of Ls so far on the trail but reception is good enough that if it makes money at the box office it could be boomer catnip.
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2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:
I think things seem to be lining up very nicely for Anora right now. Seems an easy frontrunner which is weird to say about a Sean Baker stripper comedy but nothing else is as convincing to me at the moment.
Anora got the Parasite Palme/People's Choice Placement double, only other one of the last ten years to do that.
I don't think it's a boring year at all tbh, lots of mystery and unpredictability is good and I am excited for the fall/winter slate. Shrugs!
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Movie sounds eyerolling maudlin.
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Would be awesome if the Substance could do 20m domestic total.....seems plausible based on the numbers. Wild for that kind of film.
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20 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Moana 2 being an Inside Out level event would help, also think Sonic probably gonna do a lot bigger than many official trackers expecting (though still not what the stans are hoping).
And ofc I think my current stan being well underestimated here, enough that it might very well pick up Joker's slack itself.
If Wild Robot did 120 instead of the 80 I initially predicted it would be good but not good enough to make up the roughly 150m or so shortfall from Joker missing 300m. Now, if Wild Robot did like 200m somehow, that'd be a start.
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Joker 2 falling to 60m/150 would probably close the door on topping 2023 unless it means Venom 3 breaks out to over 100m OW because of it (not impossible, btw!)
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I'm kinda the theaters are dead type of guy , and I think after the last two months of hot run, saying that theaters are dead because a Joker 2 musical (??? ass idea always) with no zeitgeist or buzz was a disappointment is insane
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Speak No Evil had its trailer in front of every single movie this entire summer and then got great reviews and still will barely hit double digits, original horror is in the mud.
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General notion I've been getting from people I know since the jump, who aren't necessarily the best barometer for a movie like this, is that Joker had a good ending and they didn't really need to do a sequel.
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Second half was really great fun, first half more mixed but it got there for me. I had a very good time. Nice to see a 100m OW that has actual "jokes" and "bits" and not just sarcastic jokey voice line readings.
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Insane sales near me all day today, but again, I've been touting this film and saying how hyped it is, so maybe South Florida is just a bubble. Lots and lots of scene kids down here.
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With how weak walkups were for both Thursday and Friday night relative to presales, I would expect the pattern to continue with today's "exceptional" sales.
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Man, 100m is gonna be very close with that number. I do think it plays well enough with families to get it.
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Obviously Minecraft is very much not for me, but it seems based on Twitter that the people who were supposed to like it didn't either, and not even for the typical "it included a rap song or black person in the trailer" reasons either.
I think Moana is very possibly doing 500m+ total, but I really just don't know how much demand it blows off on the Wednesday and Thursday. Frozen 2 did "only" 130 from a true Friday to Sunday, so it could be real tough.
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I'd guess about 108 from that number - really solid!
Gonna be down to 22 100m films this year if that keeps up. Tough. What I do find interesting is that the consensus before the pandemic had been "there are no bad months anymore, release things anytime!" and I think after the last two years that paradigm might shift back a bit. Between the NFL and the election, it feels like the energy is a bit sapped from movies right now. Obviously Beetlejuice did well, but that was before both the NFL and the debate.
Weekend Numbers | 09.27 - 09.29, 2024 | Thursday Previews | 1.95M THE WILD ROBOT | 0.77M MEGALOPOLIS
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
September is a bad time to release an animated movie tbh, especially in the post COVID enshitification world, back to school time is such a hassle for families with so many other things spinning now. Things don't really get better for them until that Wicked/Moana stretch. I will say that if it's kind of a bad idea to release an animated movie in September, it's definitely a bad idea to release two of them, both about robots, in back to back weeks. Pretty inexplicable.