[December 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

The Post - 100%

[December 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

Pitch Perfect 3 - 100%

[Winter Game SOTM 5 - It's this old chestnut again: Deadline Thursday 16th - 11:59pm]

** WHEN I SAY HIGH I MEAN THE PREDICTION IS  HIGHER (IE. THE ACTUAL IS LOWER)

 

PART A:

1. The Star - $44M HIGH

2. Wonder - $48M DOUBLE

3. Just Getting Started - $36M HIGH

4. Greatest Showman on Earth - $75M LOW

5. Ferdinand - $150M HIGH

 

6. Downsizing - $59M HIGH

7. Father Figures - $41M HIGH

8. Insidious - $34.5M LOW

9. Pitch Perfect - $136M HIGH

10. The Last Jedi - $742M LOW

 

PART B:

1. Which film will be the lowest grossing? Just Getting Started

2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $100M? Insidious

3. Will exactly three films make the Domestic top 15? NO

4. Will any film double its predicted gross? YES

5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? NO

 

6. Will the actual combined total gross for the 9 non-Star Wars films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? HIGHER

7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Pitch Perfect

8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? Wonder

9. Will 3 or more of these films open in the number 1 position? NO

10. Will 2 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? YES

[Question of the Week Winter Survival Thread - It's Here!!!]

WEEK 5: NO

[Week 4 - Justice is Here - Deadline Thursday 16th Nov: 11:59pm]

Part A:
 
1. Will Justice League Open to more than $120M? 1000 NO
2. Will Justice League Open to more than $160M? 2000 NO
3. Will Justice League Open to more than $140M? 3000 NO
4. Will Justice League make at least 40% of its gross on Friday? 4000 YES
5. Will Justice League's highest day be more than Double Ragnarok's whole weekend total? 5000 NO
 
6. Will Star open to more than $12.5M?  1000 NO
7. Will Wonder open to more than $12.5M? 2000 YES
8. Will Star open to more than Wonder? 3000 NO
9. Will Roman J Israel have a PTA above $27,000? 5000 NO
 
11. Will Daddy's Home stay above Orient Express? 1000 NO
12. Will Bad Mom's drop less than 45%? 2000 YES
13. Will Geostorm stay above Blade Runner? 3000 NO
14. Will Jigsaw's PTA stay above $900? 4000 NO
15. Will Lady Bird Increase? 5000 YES
 
16. Will Three Billboard's PTA stay above $18,000? 1000 YES
17. Will Tyler Perry drop more than 64%? 2000 YES
18. How many new Openers will be in the top 4? 3000 2
19. Will Happy Death Day increase more than 85% on Friday? 4000 NO
20. HOw many scenes will the CGI screw up and we see Cavil's 'Stache? 5000 NONE
 
Bonus: 
 
12/20    3000
13/20    5000
14/20    8000
15/20   12000
16/20    16,000
17/20   20,000 
18/20    26,000
19/20    32,000 
 20/20   40,000  
 
 
Part B:
 
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
 
Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  
2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points
 
1. What will Justice League make for its 3 day OW? $100.078M
2. What will Orient Express' percentage drop be? 49.1%
3. What will Jigsaw's Percentage drop be for the 3 day weekend? 71.8%
 
 
Part C:
 
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
 
3. Wonder
5. Daddy's Home 2
7. Bad Moms 2
9. Three Billboards
10. Jigsaw
12. Blade Runner
 
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
 
1/6   4,000
2/6   10,000
3/6   18,000
4/6   25,000
5/6   36,000
6/6 - 50,000

[December 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

Star Wars - 100%

[Winter Game Week 3 - Daddy Got Murdered - Deadline Thursday 11:59pm]

Part A:
 
1. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $17.5M? 1000 YES
2. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $22.5M? 2000 NO
3. Will Orient Express Open to more than $17.5M? 3000 YES
4. Will Orient Express Open to more than $22.5M? 4000 YES
5. Will the two highest new openers combine to more than 42M? 5000 YES
 
6. Will Thor drop less than 59%?  1000 YES
7. Will Bad Mom's drop less than 54%? 2000 YES
8. Will Blade Runner stay above Thank you for your service? 3000 NO
9. Will Jigsaw made more than $3M for the weekend? 4000 YES
10. Will Geostorm have a higher weekend percentage drop than Only the Brave? 5000 YES
 
11. Will Three Billboards have a PTA above $22,500? 1000 YES
12. Will The Foreigner have a PTA above $850? 2000 YES
13. Will Madea's PTA stay about $1500? 3000 NO
14. Will Happy Death Day decrease more than 38% on Sunday? 4000 YES
15. Will Mel Gibson out toxic Johnny Depp this Weekend or vice versa? 5000 NO
 
Bonus: 
 
9/15    5000
10/15   8000
11/15    12,000
12/15   16,000 
13/15    20,000
14/15    24,000 
 15/15   30,000  
 
 
Part B:
 
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
 
Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  
2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points
 
1. What will Daddy's Home 2 make for its 3 day OW? $19.474M
2. What will Orient Express's Sunday gross be? $5.989M
3. What will three Billboard's PTA be for the Weekend? $86,000
 

Part C:
 
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
 
2. Murder on the Orient Express
4. A Bad Moms Christmas
6. Madea
9. Lady Bird
11. Thank You for Your Service
12. Blade Runner
 
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
 
1/6   4,000
2/6   10,000
3/6   18,000
4/6   25,000
5/6   36,000
6/6 - 50,000

[Question of the Week Winter Survival Thread - It's Here!!!]

WEEK 4: NO

[December 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

I Tonya - 100%

[November 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

In that case I'll take another 40% in Daddy's Home 2 to make it a 100% total. 

[November 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

Call Me by Your Name - 100%

[November 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

The Shape of Water - 100%

[November 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

Daddy's Home 2 - 60% (Should be 50% of budget as it is within one week of release)

[Winter Game Week 2 - It's the End of the World for Mom's Everywhere - Deadline Thurs 2nd 11:59pm]

Part A:
 
1. Will Thor Open to more than $95M? 1000 YES
2. Will Thor Open to more than $105M? 2000 YES
3. Will Thor make at least 40% of its gross on Friday? 3000 NO
4. Will Thor make Double Bad Mom's 3 day tally on Saturday alone? 4000 YES
5. Will Thor decrease more than 5% on Saturday? 5000 YES
 
6. Will Bad Mom's 3 Day total be more than $15M?  1000 YES
7. Will Bad Mom's 3 Day total be more than $20M? 2000 NO
8. Will Jigsaw's entire weekend be higher than Bad Mom's best day of the weekend? 3000 NO
9. Will Geostrom drop more than 70% 4000 NO
10. Will It's PTA stay above $700? 5000 YES
 
11. Will Madea stay above Happy Death Day? 1000 YES
12. Will blade Runner stay above Thank you for your Service? 2000 NO
13. Will Suburbicon drop more than 62.5%? 3000 YES
14. Will The Foreigner drop more than 30% on Sunday? 4000 YES
15. Will Any film in the top 12 increase 150% on Friday (including Bad Moms)? 5000 YES
 
16. Which horror / Halloween movie will have the biggest Saturday increase? 1000 Madea
17. Will Let There be Light increase this weekend? 2000 NO
18. Will Only the Brave drop less than 50%? 3000 NO
19. Will Thor make at least 75% of the top 10's total 3 day gross? 4000 YES
20. Will Thulk replace Thorki in people's fanfiction? 5000 NO
 
Bonus: 
 
12/20    3000
13/20    5000
14/20    8000
15/20   12000
16/20    16,000
17/20   20,000 
18/20    26,000
19/20    32,000 
 20/20   40,000  
 
 
Part B:
 
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
 
Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  
2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points
 
1. What will Thor make for its 3 day OW? $115.809M
2. What will Geostorm's percentage drop be? 58.7%
3. What will Madea's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $2 024
 
 
Part C:
 
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
 
3. Jigsaw
5. Geostorm
6. Happy Death Day
8. Thank You for Your Service
10. It
12. Victoria and Abdul
 
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
 
1/6   4,000
2/6   10,000
3/6   18,000
4/6   25,000
5/6   36,000
6/6 - 50,000
 

[Question of the Week Winter Survival Thread - It's Here!!!]

WEEK 3: YES

[WINTER SOTM 4 - Let's go on a Journey with Thor, Hulk and maybe we'll bring Jeff along too. Deadline Thursday October 2nd 11:59]

Abstain

[Winter SOTM 3 - Weekenders: Deadline: Thurs, Oct 26th, 11.59pm]

Missed it in my post yesterday so to clear things out I abstain from part two. 

[Winter Game Week 1: Thank You for your Suburbicon Death Traps. Deadline Thursday 26th, 11:59pm]

Part A:

1. Will Jigsaw Open to more than $12.5M? 1000 YES
2. Will Thank you for Your Service Open to more than $5M? 2000 YES
3. Will Suburbicon open to more than $7.5M? 3000 NO
4. Will Madea Repeat at Number 1? 4000 NO
5. Will geostorm stay in the top 2? 5000 NO
 
6. Will IT drop less than 38%?  1000 YES
7. Will All I See is You have a PTA above $3,500? 2000 NO
8. Will The SNowman stay in the top 12? 3000 NO
9. Will Happy Death Day have a higher percentage drop than The Foreigner? 4000 YES
10. Will Blade Runner's PTA stay above $1,500? 5000 YES
 
11. Will Kingsman increase more than 60% on Saturday? 1000 YES
12. Will American Made drop more than 35% on Sunday? 2000 YES
13. Will Jigsaw increase on Saturday? 3000 NO
14. Will Geostorm increase more than 125% on Friday? 4000 NO
15. Will The three new openers combine to more than $25M? 5000 YES
 
16. Will American Made stay above Kingsmen? 1000 YES
17. Will Mountain Between us stay above Same Kind of Different? 2000 NO
18. Will Only the Brave drop less than 50%? 3000 YES
19. Will Madea make more than $4.5M on Saturday? 4000 YES
20. Will Jigsaw actually include any Jigsaw puzzles? 5000 YES?
 
Bonus: 
 
12/20    3000
13/20    5000
14/20    8000
15/20   12000
16/20    16,000
17/20   20,000 
18/20    26,000
19/20    32,000 
 20/20   40,000  
 
 
Part B:
 
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
 
Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  
2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points
 
1. What will Jigsaw make for its 3 day OW? $20.118M
2. What will Only The Brave's Sunday gross be? $1.009M
3. What will The Foreigner's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1 388
 
Part C:

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
 
1. Jigsaw
3. Geostorm
5. Happy Death Day
8. Suburbicon
10. It
12. American Made
 
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
 
1/6   4,000
2/6   10,000
3/6   18,000
4/6   25,000
5/6   36,000
6/6 - 50,000

[Winter SOTM 3 - Weekenders: Deadline: Thurs, Oct 26th, 11.59pm]

1. December 29-31
2. December 15-17
3. December 22-24

[Question of the Week Winter Survival Thread - It's Here!!!]

WEEK 2: YES

[Winter Game Week Zero: The Calm before the Geostorm... Deadline Thurs. Oct 19th 11:59 pm]

Part A:
1. Will Madea 2 Open to more than $22.5M? 1000 YES
2. Will Geostorm Open to more than $15M? 2000 NO
3. Will Only the Brave open to more than $12M? 3000 NO
4. Will The Snowman open higher than any of the films mentioned in Q1-3? 4000 NO
5. Will Same Kind of Different have a higher PTA than Geostorm? 5000 NO
 
6. Will Blade Runner drop less than 55%?  1000 YES
7. Will The 5 main new openers combine to more than $25M on Saturday? 2000 NO
8. Will Happy Death Day stay in the top 2? 3000 YES
9. Will My Little Pony stay above Victoria and Abdul? 4000 NO
10. Will Flatliners have a higher weekend percentage drop than American Assassin? 5000 YES
 
11. Will IT make more than $1M on Friday and Saturday? 1000 YES
12. Will Ninjago drop more than 30% on Sunday? 2000 YES
13. Will Kingsmen's PTA stay about $1350? 3000
14. Will the Foreigner decrease more than 52%? 4000 NO
15. WIll Geostorm render all life meaningless upon its release? 5000 NO
 
Bonus: 
 
9/15    5000
10/15   8000
11/15    12,000
12/15   16,000 
13/15    20,000
14/15    24,000 
 15/15   30,000  
 
Part B:
The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:
 
Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  
2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points
3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points
 
1. What will Geostorm make for its 3 day OW? $11.680M
2. What will (Stephen King's) It's Sunday gross be? $956K
3. What will The Snowman's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $2 958
 
Part C:
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
 
1. Madea
3. Only The Brave
5. Blade Runner
8. Same Kind of Different as Me
10. American Made
12. Kingsman 2
 
Because I realised bonuses are stupid...
 
1/6   4,000
2/6   10,000
3/6   18,000
4/6   25,000
5/6   36,000
6/6 - 50,000

[November 2017 | Investments & Monthly Thread]

I'd like to cancel 20% of my investment A Bad Moms Christmas so that I have only 30% left.

[Winter SOTM 2 - Franchise Mania: Deadline: Thurs Oct 26th, 11:59pm]

Thor: Ragnarok (Thor): 1st
Justice League (MOS/BVS): 1st
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 2nd
Pitch Perfect 3: 2nd
Insidious: 4th
Maze Runner: 3rd
Fifty Shades Freed: 3rd

[WINTER SOTM 1 - China, I did not forget you :) Deadline THurs Oct 26th 11:59pm]

Blade Runner – $35M
Thor Ragnarok – $110M
Justice League – $115M

[Question of the Week Winter Survival Thread - It's Here!!!]

WEEK 1 NO