GregBeuke
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Posts posted by GregBeuke
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So... Under $12M for TG and MMXXL this weekend?
Depends on tomorrow increase and Sunday decrease. I could easily see one of them doing 4.5 million tomorrow and 4 million Sunday to be at 12 million. But it's more likely that both finish near 11 million.
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Terminator is basically tracking to Lone Ranger's dailies. A finish O/U 90M looks likely for it.
I'm hoping for 4.5 million tomorrow and 4 million Sunday. Which would put it at it's expected 12 million this weekend.
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Is Terminator Obsolete ?
I'm hoping/guessing it's numbers are near Jurassic World. Just like they have been the past week.
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Salvation did better without Arnold.
That was 6 years ago the fan base has gotten smaller since than and Terminator Genisys will be bigger internationally.
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He thinks himself as the captain of this sinking ship, salvaging what he can to keep it afloat.
Funny coming from someone who was just rooting for Spy to reach 100 million. If I do it, then it's a bad thing. Lol haters are gonna hate I guess.
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Where is all that research n shit you did that guaranteed Genisys would be a massive hit and do about $150 million. How it was impossible it would make less than Salvation, how Paramount have never had a summer release do less than $125 million. How it not hitting $100 million was just wishful thinking.
Data is still out there if you want to see it. I can show you the tracking chart that said 67 percent male teens wanted to see this movie.
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Well if making money is so important, why not just get rid of Arnold altogether and replace him his a bigger, more bankable star like The Rock? Teens don't care about Arnold but I bet they'd show up in a second if The Rock was in it instead of him.
Adults do thats why it's still doing 90 something million domestically and a success internationally. You add to Arnold not replace him. Because he's still clearly bringing something to the franchise.
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It'll be at about $65-66m on Sunday estimates, actuals could be solid $65m.
Then Ant-Man with MI:RN rolling in at the tail end of the month. "You're terminated"
It's suppose to do 12-13 million this weekend, not 10 million. It should be at 67-68 million come and will make around 6 -7 million still Monday through Thursday shows. So the movie will be at 73-74 million come next Friday and it even with Ant-Man hoping it will still do around 6 million dollars next week to put above 80 million after it's third weekend. Even with Ant-Man opening Terminator Genisys will likely gross 90 million by it's 5th weekend(TomorrowLand crossed 90 million after 6th weekend). I'm not sure how much it will do after that though.
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Wasn't the highest grossing movie of last year domestically and adult movie aimed at adult audiences?
LOL yeah a true story drama movie about a American soldier that tugs at the heart strings. Can be comparable to some action/sci-fi movie lol. R rated action or sci-fi movies usually top out at 400 million range worldwide and usually around 130 million domestic. Fury Road had to be floored with extremely positive buzz from fan-boys and critics to reach the domestic numbers it did. Which was a great feet considering no other R rated action or sci-fi film has come close to 150 million the past five years.
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Public Enemies had a 2.5m Thu and a 13.7m weekend. TG probably looking at 12.5m weekend.
Yeah Public Enemies had similar Monday through Thursday numbers doing 12.6 million compared to Terminator Genisys 12.5 million. But with Minions opening so big, you need to take away some business away from Terminator. If only was a 30 million dollar comedy was opening up. I'd be saying Terminator Genisys would be doing 13.5 million this weekend.
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Genisys is pacing behind Lone Ranger, which did $89M. Lone Ranger did $11.5M for it's second weekend but was at $71M after said weekend.
Lone Ranger is a poor comparison. Because Lone Ranger was very opening four days heavy and then it tanked badly. For example Lone Ranger from Monday through Thursday shows it did only 11.2 million that week. So it wasn't a surprise when it only did 11.5 million during it's second weekend. Terminator Genisys on the other hand did 12.5 million during Monday through Thursday shows and is showing signs of better legs. Public Enemies continues to be the best comparison for Terminator Genisys. Since Terminator Genisys only slightly per day better then Public Enemies. Opening at 42.5 million compared to Public Enemies 40.1 million.
But the Monday through Thursday numbers were very comparable too. With Terminator Genisys doing 12.5 million compared to Public Enemies doing 12.6 million. Now Public Enemies went on to have a 13.7 million dollar second weekend. But of course they didn't have to do with a movie like Minions either. So I think a fajr weekend for Terminator Genisys is probably around 12.5-12.7 million. But let's not forget that Terminator Genisys is currently a few million ahead of Public Enemies and that went onto gross 97 million. So while 100 million is still possible for Terminator Genisys. It might struggle to earn much past it's 5 weekend, when you consider the competition out. So a safer bet is probably it finishing at 93-95 million.
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Why hook a younger auidence? Did you know only 20% of movie going auidences that saw Captain America 2 where under 17.
That extra 20 percent makes a big difference. Especially since older audiences have no problem showing up to PG-13 action movies. Look I love R rated action movies from the 80s and 90s probably as much as you. But I understand where the big money is in action movies is today. That is why I have no problem with franchises try to adapt to PG-13 style. Is it really fair that all these summer action film can be PG-13. But Terminator isn't allowed to, because the movies made 24 and 31 years ago weren't? I think thats pretty silly....
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Aren't the majority of movie goers over 17? It's something like 15% of movie goers are under 17. All they did was attempt to appeal to a crowd that wasn't interested and alienate the ones that where. Maybe a lot more adults would have gone to see it had they not been put off by the low rating. Maybe the mistake was trying to appeal to a younger auidence instead of keeping the one they already had.
Hell, maybe teenagers would have been more interested had it carried a more mature rating. Made the movie more enticing, forbidden fruit if you will.
Why do you think R rated horror movies gross more than PG13 ones even though the target auidence is always teenagers? They see the PG13 ones as lame yet get enticed by the R rating.
Ehhh in reality a very small amount of people care about a movie rating. Especially when it comes to general audiences. Even if they,made the movie a darker and R rated it wouldn't have mattered. As much as I don't like saying it. The movie needed more than a 67 year old Arnold Terminator as a selling point. If it was going to compete against big movies like Jurassic World and Inside Out. They made a mistake not casting a bigger star for Kyle Reese or John Connor character. The movie also needed more CGI destruction and wow moments to hook younger viewers as well.
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Suitable punishment for selling out to PG-13.
LOL so there punishment is that the same older 25 and up male audience is seeing this. Who would have been seeing this anyways even if it was R. So making the rating PG-13 didn't hurt or help them in reality. Since what the movie failed at is bringing in the teen audience. But the older males still showed up to see this movie even with the lighter rating. That audience is only so big though. Which is why they went PG-13 and tried to get the teenagers interested in this franchise in the first place. Like I said before this is basically performing like Expendables 1/2 domestically. Which had very little interest from woman or teenagers.
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last week friday was a holiday and so increases were bigger. I dont see it being that big plus 2.35 to 4m requires even bigger increase. Not happening when you have a opener that will hit 120m+.
Well I expect the actual TG Thursday number to be closer to 2.4-2.5 Keep in mind TomorowLand went from doing 1.8 million on a Thursday to 3.7 million on Friday(increased all the way to 6 million on Saturday) during it's second weekend. Not to mention even the box office experts have it doing 12-13 million this weekend. That's with knowing the likely numbers that it would do tonight. So how is it suppose to reach that number, without that type of increase. Last weekend many were comparing it to Public Enemies.
Well that movie had a similar low 2.5 million Thursday night total and that increased to 4.2 million on Friday. Last week you didn't see it having that type of high increase and were already factoring in the busy holiday weekend. So it doesn't surprise me that you're doing the same thing again. The movie has a older fan-base, so It's going to do a lot better on discount Tuesday nights and the weekend. With a audience 65 percent males age 25 and up. Your not going to get a much of a crowd on a Wednesday/Thursday even in July. So I think you will see higher than usual increases on the weekend and bigger than usual drops on the week days. Which is exactly what we've seen over the past week or so.
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This is july. I dont see TG increasing 80% on friday. Lone Ranger increased 51% and that faced smaller openers than what TG is facing this week. Next weekend since its 2 weeks old, it will start shedding theaters as well.
If it did 4 million on Tuesday, it should do near 4 million on Friday still. Weren't you saying it couldn't increase that much last Thursday to Friday too? Then it went from 6.5 to 10.8 million. This movie still has a older audience, so it will have decent increases from weekday to weekend. Even if it loses screens it's still likely going to be in a lot of screens come next weekend. Likely 2,500 plus still. Which will likely just cut out the IMAX and 3D screens which probably aren't doing very well anyways.
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Tomorrowland competition was less than what TG will face. Ant-Man/Pixels/Rogue Nation/Fantastic 4 etc hit the same audience and I am expecting all of them to open good( > 50m). With TG already at 4th place, it will lose screens very quickly or get very small screens.So I agree with gopher on it missing 100m.
That's a good point, it might tap out at 93-95 million then.
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Never considered that wrinkle.
As long as it passes TOMORROWLAND.
TomorrowLand was at 63.7 million after it's second weekend. So as long as Terminator Genisys doesn't have a huge drop this weekend. It should jump past that by 2-3 million dollars.
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I can't extrapolate Minions previews until 10AM tomorrow because it's reported as Friday business, lol.
I don't think Terminator is hitting 100. Even if it reaches 12-13 this weekend it'll lose a ton of theaters/interest next weekend.
It will be close, depends on how long Paramount keeps in it theaters. Along with how well it does once it hits dollar shows. It's still likely to be over 80 million by the end of next weekend. While even TomorrowLand has been able to gross 15 million dollars after it's third weekend so far. Even with losing interest and tons of screens with Jurassic World out.
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lol Terminator might not pass 100m
It did exactly what I thought it would do today. It's at 55.1 million right now and will probably increase by 2 million tomorrow. It should still do 12.5 and 13.5 million this weekend. Which will put it in the 68 million range after it's second weekend and still with a decent chance to hit 100 million.
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So now TG and MM are even in the numbers today? Would be quite funny if MM beat TG this weekend, despite TG grossing 15m more than it last weekend.
I have a feeling TG will end up beating it by 3-4 million this weekend still. But part of the reason why Magic Mike did so poorly last weekend. Was because it was a terrible weekend for that type of film. Groups of woman aren't going to be getting together July 3rd and 4th to see that. So Magic Mike XXL might have a pretty small drop this weekend.
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Going to try my luck and do some predictions (not even attempting Minions):
IO- 4.8M
JW- 4M
TG- 3.4M
MM- 2.9
All of these movies are likely to drop from yesterday not increase. My guess would be
IO-3.8 M
JW-3.1 M
TG-2.4 M
MM-2.3 M
That said all of these movies should get 1-2 million increases tomorrow though.
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I remember all the talk was about T2 - Arnold was HUGE at that time - seemed like everything he was in was a hit
Yep having Twins, Total Recall, Kindergarten Cop and Terminator 2 all back to back to back made him one of the biggest movie stars in the world during this time. Nobody probably realizes that Twins was the 5th highest grossing movie of 1988 domestically. While Total Recall and Kindergarten Cop were the 7th and 10th highest grossing movies of 1990. Even though he had a bomb in Last Action Hero in 1993. He rebounded in 1994 and True Lies was the third highest grossing movie domestically. Not to mention the first Terminator, Conan the Destroyer, Commando, Predator, Running Man and Red Heat were all box office successes before Twins. But Twins was his first HUGE hit at the box office. That said, many of those earlier films got even bigger on video rentals(especially Predator) as Arnold fame grew in the early 90s as well. I know as a 9 year old kid who became a huge Arnold fan after seeing T2. I was going out renting Predator, Commando, Twins, Running Man and all those 80s classics.
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How much has Terminator made so far WW?
There hasn't been a update since Sunday. Paramount will send a new update out on Sunday after it opens at a bunch of new markets this weekend. If I had to guess it would be at somewhere around 225-250 million come Sunday.
Weekend Estimates: Minions - 115.2M; JW - 18.1M; Inside Out - 17.1M; Gallows - 10M; Self/Less - 5.4M; MMXXL - 9.6M; T5 - 13.7M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Yes those numbers Sunday morning will be really interesting.