23IsEverywhere
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Posts posted by 23IsEverywhere
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*Just math*
Mathematically following RotK I got 3 numbers for the weekend to hit $1B
41.5 with RotK's weekend/weekday ratio for next week
41.25 with this weeks weekend/weekday ratio for TFA
40.2 TFA's ratio*nextWeekRotKRatio/thisWeekRotKRatio
with such a sudden drop however there would be no way it jumped right back on track with RotK
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7 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:
So what does SW need to pull this weekend to keep $1B in play? Anything in the 50's?
I think $48m would keep it in play, but I can't really see it reaching $1B with much lower barring Oscar buzz.
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I will be a lot more confident about $1B with a small drop today and a $50 fourth weekend. That Wednesday drop was slightly harsher than RotK's M-W, though on track or slightly ahead of the Sunday-W drop. A 3% drop would put it back on track, M-R whereas steeper than 8.5% would start to put $1B in jeopardy. If this turns out to have a much better Friday, and is more of a weekend movie than RotK then my panic over W is all pointless
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Following RotK's weekly drops, with the 3rd week's W and R approximated by M-W and M-R drops,
$118.7m third week
$51.1m fourth weekend (could be a little high)
$61.1m fourth week (with a $51.1m fourth weekend I highly doubt it'd be this low)
$1.031B
Before this past weekend RotK drops week to week gave a third week of $103m (already at $106m with an $8m T number), and a final of $981m
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5 minutes ago, kitik said:
So expect a bigger drop on Wednesday, should be somewhere in the 6.0-6.5 range. Maybe even the high 5's if there is a really bad storm that prevents some parts of the country from going out.
The storms in So Cal shouldn't hurt the box office to bad, it is supposed to be similar to today's storm or a little weaker, so other than some extra car crashes, nothing too serious (except in the mountains) I could see people heading to the shows for something to do indoors.
It should be over 50 million, if Wednesday is around $6.5m. It looks probable but Wednesday numbers would make me more confident.
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I think it will easily out gross titanic, with about $200m + still to come from China
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With RotK daily numbers $8m Monday gives 8/7.2/6.48/5.9/13.1/23.1/14.7 for a $51m 4th weekend and with a continued following of RotK 1.029B final total. This number is actually better than I expected, and increases the odds of reaching $1B. Until this weekend following ROTK didn't break $1B now it does.
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16 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Any other regulars want to back me up on this?
Definitely true for Deadline, Rth... well Rth works in mysterious ways, he may bless us with numbers but the odds of it occurring are the lowest they have been in TFA's run.
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Conservative estimate: 6.5/7/5.5/5 for the week (ROTK with Tuesday bump and slightly harsher Monday drop)
It would need to average $9m on Monday and Tuesday to beat Avatar Tuesday, which has <5% chance of happening
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I looked at the weekly drops if it follows RotK. I am hesitant to say that $1B is locked especially having not seen the movie yet (last 3 times I tried it was sold out trying again Tuesday), but based on numbers alone and the past patterns I see no reason for this to drop harsher than RotK at least until oscar season. Underlined are actuals
Spoiler$390,856,054 $261,109,529 $103,399,373* $53,250,677 $41,588,779 $25,909,809 $19,639,635 $15,672,429 $17,271,017 $10,587,133 $9,316,677 $11,403,613 $8,313,234 $5,312,156 $2,826,067 $1,579,772 $1,308,051 $898,631 $747,661 $607,848 $426,710 $364,837 $291,504 $114,270 $982,795,468 final. The third week will be better than this formula shows, but weaker oscar weeks should counter act that (unless it crashes and only makes $13m for the next weeks weekdays), this projection also puts it at $876m on Jan, 28. We could be looking at $900m before the start of February.
Same model with 3rd week estimated based on $90m 3rd weekend, $21m Sunday and ROTK's daily drops gives $1.013B
Spoiler$390,856,054 $261,109,529 $113,073,287 $58,232,743 $45,479,772 $28,333,898 $21,477,095 $17,138,722 $18,886,871 $11,577,652 $10,188,334 $12,470,521 $9,091,009 $5,809,155 $3,090,470 $1,727,573 $1,430,430 $982,706 $817,611 $664,718 $466,632 $398,970 $318,777 $124,961 $1,013,747,491 -
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2 hours ago, Elessar said:
I think that's a weird way of doing it. Rather, taking the week-to-week decline / daily pattern of ROTK:$25m (mon-thu) + $45m (fri-sun)
Still believe TFA will do a little bit better than that.
These numbers will probably be closer to the actuals. My method is more of tracking a realistic minimum for the film and the numbers to hit that minimum ($966m).
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If TFA does follow RotK it would make $56.13m on the week of Jan 4-Jan 10 with a $5.7m Monday, and a $36.4m weekend*
I think TFA will be much higher then those numbers, putting it on a path to $1B+ potentially threatening Jaws adjusted.
* These calculations were based on the day, week, and weekends percentage of gross to date
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Return of the King drop percentages are the numbers to watch from this point forward. TFA must percentage wise drop slightly better than RotK to get to $1B. After this weekend TFA will be at about $744m (assuming a 33% Sunday drop)
At this point RotK was at $290.4, or 77% of its total, this would give TFA $966m
This is comparing the total at the end of the third weekend to the final total for both movies, the end of RotK's 3rd weekend was 2 more days into its run, and I think the $966m represents a good floor for this films gross.
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I think that Avatar first run ($749m) goes down on Sunday and its total DOM falls on Monday.
Happy birthday Baumer
Happy New Years
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Assuming Friday = Saturday and Sunday = Friday*.7
Friday/Weekend
If it is flat Monday to Friday: 31.36m/84.67m (like ROTK, though that had New Years day on Thursday)
If it has half of Avitar's (numeric) Monday to Friday increase: 34.36m/92.77
If it has Avitar's (numeric) Monday to Friday increase: 37.36m/100.87m
If it has half of Avitar's (percentage) Monday to Friday increase: 36.09m/97.4m
If it has Avitar's (percentage) Monday to Friday increase: 40.8m/110.2m
37.04m is needed on Friday to reach 100m
I think with how this movie has been going we are looking at a $99.8m 3rd weekend, which Disney will not fudge to $100m
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This movie needs to make $81m by Thursday to win the year, It should make it, but it might not
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If TFA follows JW second weekend multiplier with a $155m weekend it would reach $900m so I have to say
$900m 100% locked -
With JW opening week multiplier this hits $860m, Avengers would give it $903m.
With the winter opening week multipliers
Hobbit: $1.077 B
ROTK: $1.2257B
Avatar: $2.136B
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This may have already been added by someone else, but BOM lists an estimate of $27,591 so a 27.4% drop
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Merry Christmas may it be the start of a glorious second weekend that will be remembered for years to come
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The Force Awakens has lost a little ground on Avatar compared to Monday where if it followed it would have hit $1.894B
If it follows Avatar with the Monday-Wednesday numbers multiplier it will hit $1.836B
If it follows Avatar with just the Wednesday numbers multiplier it will hit it is at $1.8057
Unfortunately the holidays messed with ROTK and Hobbit 3 comps. To be leggier than those for Christmas Eve, TFA needs a 39.5% and a 38.6% drop respectively. If it can out leg ROTK it will likely break $1B
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7 minutes ago, ForcedForward said:
Yup, Disney got a steal at 2 billion, Lucas sold way way too cheap, forgetting merchandise which alone was probably worth 2 billion.
I think Lucas film and all the rights to merchandise was worth double the 2 billion he got.
The next 6 movies will at the minimum gross 9 billion worldwide over the next 6 years, add merchandise, theme park, it's mind boggling.
It was actually $4.05B still an amazing deal for Disney. They ended up getting Pixar, Lucas Films, and Marvel for under $15B
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If this follows
The Hobbit 3's monday multiplier (a Wednesday opener) $966m-1B
Return of the King's monday multiplier (also a Wednesday opener) $975m-1.0125B
Avatar with the Monday multiplier that is $1.849-$1.931B domestic
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TFA as of the end of the weekend is above:
Day 11 of Avatar
Day 34 of Titanic
Day 18 of The Phantom Menace
TFA's domestic total
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$900m
Wednesday 6th, 2016 | SW 7 $6.2M = $764.4 = Officially #1 | DH 1.54 | H8 1.44 | Sisters 1.16 | BigShort 869k | Joy 855k | p.7 chart
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Posted
Avatar's 3D is absolutely amazing, I know the movie has a weak plot, and mediocre acting, but that 3D the stunning visuals that is how the movie made its $760m. Avatar made people actually want to watch 3D movies.