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el sid

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by el sid

    I have to whine a little bit ;). I invested so much time today for almost nothing, namly search for comps which were not telling for Garfield and IF (and will not repeat it and stick to counting films in their release week) but now, the best of the day: 

     

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, counted today for Thursday, had fine 1.229 sold tickets (of course in all of my 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMC in LA (434) but also doing good in NY (e.g. The Fall Guy had 1/2 of the sales of the Apes in NY). 

     

    Comps (all films counted for Thursday): The Fall Guy (2.35M is the right number without EA, no?) had on Wednesday of the release week 865 sold tickets = 3.3M + 1 day left.

    JWD (18M) had also on Tuesday 3.483 sold tickets = 6.35M.

    GxK (10M - rather 9M as @charlie Jatinder told us) had also on Tuesday 1.437 sold tickets = 8.55M (so in fact 7.7M).

    And Uncharted had on Wednesday 1.062 sold tickets = 4.3M + 1 day left.

     

    So over 4M for sure from my theaters ☺️.

     

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by el sid

    IF, counted yesterday for Friday, May 17, had 95 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). 11 days left. Best sales in the AMC in NY followed by that in San Francisco. 

     

    Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 7 days left for IF) Jungle Cruise (10.7M true Friday) had 357 sold tickets,

    Dolittle (5.375M) had 143,

    Elemental (9.4M) had 317

    and Minions 2 (37.4M) had 907 sold tickets. 

     

    I hope sales will ~ triple till next Monday. Not really signs for a breakout so far, but very solid. 

     

     

     

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    IF had yesterday for Thursday, May 16, 143 sold tickets. 10 days left. Best sales in California. 

     

    Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 7 days left for IF): Migration (1.5M from previews) had 111 sold tickets = 1.95M + 7 days left for IF. 

    Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (575k) had 49 sold tickets = 1.7M + 7 days left.

    Dolittle (925k) had 156 sold tickets = 0.85M + 7 days left.

    And Wonka (3.5M but probably not the best comp) had with also 10 days left 547 sold tickets = 0.9M. 

    I guess that the presales of IF will ca. double-triple till next Monday. It will not really get 4-6M e.g. compared to Migration but from most comps the number could be pretty decent.

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Garfield, counted today for Sunday 19 = with 12 days left, had 203 sold tickets in 4 theaters (37 seats still available, almost all in the AMC Sunset Place in Miami). 

    No shows in "my" theaters in Michigan, Texas and Arizona. For compensation, I did look at two other theaters, the AMC Barton Creek Square 14 in Texas (30 sold tickets, 9 seats still available) and the AMC Mesa Grand 14 in Arizona (41 sold tickets, 1 ticket still available). So in 6 AMC theaters, it would be 274 sold tickets (and 47 tickets are still available = 14.5%).

     

    Honestly I don't have comps and e.g. due to the too few shows they would probably be useless anyway. But this number shows that there's definitely interest (what we already know) and also the very even sales are a good sign.

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by el sid

    I will count Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes tomorrow. Today I counted Garfield and IF.

     

    Garfield had today for Thursday, May 23, 43 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). 17 days left.

    Seems not much but it's a step in the right direction. 

    Comp: Migration (1.5M from previews) had with 11 days left 67 sold tickets.

     

    Tomorrow I will (exactly) count its presales for Sunday, May 19. But I can already report that also in my theaters it looks very good for Garfield. They will for sure add shows soon. It has so far only 1 show/theater and the shows are almost sold out, between 1 and 4 seats are still available :). 

    So my guess still is that this movie if it's not totally bad (and first reviews here were quite positive) will become a (big) hit.

     

    Edit: Numbers for IF tomorrow because I'm tired and still have to search for more comps. But it looked good for the film, both on Thursday and on Friday. 

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    Weekend Numbers | actuals | 27.75M THE FALL GUY | 8.72M SW: EP I - TPM | 7.59M CHALLENGERS | 6.50M TAROT

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    17 hours ago, excel1 said:

     

     

    True, that explains why everyone lined up to see Harrison Ford return in BLADE RUNNER 49, Shwarzenegger - and later Linda Hamilton - return to Terminator, Keanu in MATRIX and BILL AND TED, the OGs in GHOSTBUSTERS 3 and 4, Keaton's Batman in FLASH, Ellen Burstyn in EXORCIST, Channing Tatum in MAGIC MIKE 3, Stallone in RAMBO 5, Vin Diesel in XXX 2, Damon in JASON BOURNE, Stiller in ZOOLANDER 2. How could we forget the giant success that was INDEPENDENCE DAY 2? Fans of course are still elated at Palpatines iconic return in Star Wars 9.

     

    Reality is that "NOSTALGIA!!!" as the reasoning for success has a pretty shitty track record outside oof a few GIANT successes. Hard nostalgia pulls with certain actors in certain roles worked for DA FORCE AWAKENS and HALLOWEEN, but did little to nothing in pretty much every other attempt. Nostalgias track record with concepts-only is even worse, for every JURASSIC WORLD, there are 6 or 7 films like MIB: International, CHIPS, Charlies Angels, etc.

     

    See things through the eyes of a normal fan. New major tentpole film had ever done anything like what occurred in NWH. It is inherently risky to take that approach. 

    Of course nostalgia works if it's done right. Many of the films/sequels that were created decades later were successful or at least people were definitely still interested in the brand (some of the films were just too expensive to be called hits): Halloween, Ghostbusters, Star Wars, Star Trek, Rocky/Creed (ok, Rocky Balboa had a small budget), Expendables worked as an ensemble film, Die Hard, Indiana Jones, Jurassic Park, James Bond, Top Gun, several biopics surprised, Alien (Prometheus was at least worldwide a success)...

    Or look at the Pirates of the Caribbean series (I mean no Smartphones and so on; of course the PotC series were mostly popular becomes of a lot of other things). Somehow you could even add Barbie.

     

    And maybe Horizon, Garfield and Beetle Juice 2 become successful?

     

    But the films based on nostalgia still have to be at least decent (Independence Day 2 e.g. was just terrible IMO, Terminator 5 and Indiana Jones 4 a letdown for many fans, Matrix 3 was already way less popular and successful than Matrix 2). You can't just take a brand and make a mediocre or bad film and think that moviegoers come back every time after one or several bad experiences.

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    By the way, I almost forgot to report because it's not too exciting, Tarot had today counted for today 264 sold tickets tickets (in 7 theaters).

     

    So overall I agree with other reports here that the true Friday number could be around 2M. The comparison number (I took M3gan and some way older ones because I doubt that its walks-ups are as strong as those of Saw X) was 1.9M.

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    On 5/2/2024 at 9:43 PM, el sid said:

    Tarot, counted today for today, had 184 sold tickets.

    Up 61.5% since yesterday. A nice last-minute improvement. I saw that in other reports it looks better too.

    [...]

     

    Average: 625k. So it improved by ca. 100k since yesterday and I think that positive trend will continue till tomorrow so I say 700k+ from previews and with good walks-ups high single digits could still happen. 

    With these reviews, also from moviegoers, I'm not that confident anymore that it can reach high single digits, but my preview guess was not too bad 😎.

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    The Fall Guy, counted today for today, had 1.071 sold tickets.

    Up ok 24% since yesterday. Best sales in California and it improved in the AMC in Miami.

     

    Comps (all movies counted on Thursday for Thursday): Argylle (1.7M from previews) had 997 sold tickets (yesterday The Fall Guy was only 18 tickets in front, not a big difference but a step in the right direction) = 1.85M.

    BT (4.6M) had 1.508 = 3.25M.

    TLC (2.5M) had 745 = 3.6M.

    Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 466 = 2.55M.

    Civil War (2.6M on Thursday) had 1.357 = 2.05M.

    Amsterdam (550k) had 289 = 2.05M.

    And Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 sold tickets = 3.05M.

     

    Average: 2.6M true Thursday.

    Only very slightly down from yesterday. So the jump was better than what I expected and the comparison number stayed more or less the same. Yesterday I feared that this movie could indeed end with 20M+ OW but today ca. 30M (just a rough guess) again look achievable to me judging from my theaters and other reports here. Good. 

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Today I have more pleasant news for you (Tarot, The Fall Guy).

     

    Tarot, counted today for today, had 184 sold tickets.

    Up 61.5% since yesterday. A nice last-minute improvement. I saw that in other reports it looks better too.

     

    Comps (all movies counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 218 sold tickets = 650k.

    Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 750k.

    M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 650k.

    Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 276 = 450k.

    Abigail (1M) had 351 = 525k.

    The First Omen (725k) had also 184 sold tickets = 725k.

    Smile (2M) had 467 = 800k.

    And Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 610 sold tickets = 450k.

     

    Average: 625k. So it improved by ca. 100k since yesterday and I think that positive trend will continue till tomorrow so I say 700k+ from previews and with good walks-ups high single digits could still happen. 

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    The Fall Guy, counted today for tomorrow, had 865 sold tickets. Best sales in the AMC Universal Cinema in LA with 429 sold tickets. Remember when I said that GxK has fine presales in every state? Mmh.

    Overall up mediocre 29% since Monday.

     

    Average from comps (in very short form because it's after midnight here - Argylle, Nile, BT, TLC, Uncharted, Amsterdam, CW): 2.7M.

    I said that it will go down and that number was to expect and is not that bad (and of course without EA shows) but still...the jump could have been bigger.

     

    And I think - if I have the time to count tomorrow - that the Thursday comparison number looks even worse. But I'm absolutely convinced that only the WOM will decide if this film becomes a success or not.

     

    By the way, the reviews in Germany are less enthusiastic. Good, but not great. Some people here seem to put all their hopes on a film that is more or less just made by and for Hollywood/LA. Other films in 2024 will be way less "niche". 

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    I should have counted The Phantom Menace instead today...it's planned on Friday because I'm really interested.

    Maybe I can't count tomorrow at all. Let's see. If not, I will compensate that as good as I can on Friday.

     

    The other two films were no pleasure to count today. I'm sorry that I don't have better news :(.

     

    Tarot, counted today for tomorrow, had 114 sold tickets (in 7 theaters, at least it has showtimes now in my AMCs in NY and Texas).

    Up for a horror film horrible 18% since Monday.

     

    Comps: The Invitation (775k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 500k.

    Devil (660k) had 140 = 550k.

    M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 700k.

    Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 209 = 400k.

    Abigail (1M) had 248 = 450k.

    The First Omen (725k) had 120 = 700k.

    Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 471 = 350k.

    And Smile (2M) had 306 = 750k.

     

    Average: 550k. 

    At least the comps are way more even now and in line with other reports here and it got more shows.

    I think this is a walk-up friendly film but the jump till today was just surprisingly poor. I'm sorry.

     

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    Horizon Part 1 | Kevin Costner-directed Western | June 28, 2024

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by el sid

    Well, hopefully EmpireCity is right that it's fantastic.

    This movie (the movies) could become a bigger hit than many people initially thought.

     

    Especially Chapter 2 will be funny to track. I'm looking forward to that. 

     

    I (also) think EmpireCity is wrong when it comes to a later release date of Chapter 2. The winter has other anticipated films. The distance of time of two months could be a clever strategy: once every halfway interested person has seen the first movie and the buzz would become/becomes smaller the second part is already in the wings. Like that the buzz never vanishes (especially if it's really a very good epos). If people like Chapter 1 (which is likely) they will talk about it everywhere (on social media) and then start to attend to Chapter 2 which will help building the buzz around that movie. 

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    The Fall Guy, counted yesterday for Friday, had exactly 600 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). Pretty poor sales in the AMC Sunset Place in Miami (37), ok sales in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY (78), best sales in the AMC Universal Cinema in California (280, no wonder).

     

    Comps: BT (8M true Friday) had 655 sold tickets = 7.3M.

    Uncharted (11.7M) had 715 = 9.8M.

    Civil War (7.9M) had 1.012 = 4.7M.

    Amsterdam (2.05M) had 121 = 10.15M.

    (And TLC (9M) had 196 sold tickets (but very good jumps till Thursday) = 27.5M).

     

    Average (without TLC because that number is just too good at the moment, later in the week I will include the presales of that movie): 8M true Friday for The Fall Guy.

    Sounds quite reasonable to me. But seldomly have I tracked a movie where the success depended so much on the jumps in the release week and the walk-ups. You can see above, compared to Civil War the true Friday would be only 4.7M but compared to a film with good jumps and walk-ups as TLC it's 27.5M (at the moment).

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by el sid

    The Fall Guy, counted today for Thursday, had 669 sold tickets (in all 7 theaters).

    Up modest 25.5% since last Friday. Not a bad number but it's a little bit as feared, it did not quite have the normal Monday jump. OTOH, other movies which already had a lot of buzz had way worse jumps, 25% are still acceptable.  

     

    Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): BT (4.6M from previews) had 879 sold tickets = 3.5M.

    TLC (2.5M) had 309 = 5.4M. 

    Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 = 2.85M.

    Amsterdam (550k) had 184 = 2M.

    Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 212 = 3.5M.

    Average: 3.45M.

     

    A nice number but it will very probably go down because e.g. for TLC with only 306 tickets on Monday it was way easier to have decent jumps in the next few days. The EA shows on Wednesday for sure hurt the Thursday presales of The Fall Guy so this is really no bad number.

    Overall no signs for a breakout hit but very, very solid. All it needs now are at least ok jumps.

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Tarot, counted today for Thursday, had 97 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

    It's not helpful that the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY is still missing (the other theater is the small one in Texas which is no problem), because that theater would have been a good indicator.

     

    Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday and in the same 5 theaters, therefore I don't report the back then counted presale numbers of the films): The Invitation (775k) = 1.15M.

    Abigail (1M) = 750k.

    M3gan (2.75M) = 1.25M.

    Prey for the Devil (660k) = 600k.

    The Last Voyage of the Demeter (750k) = 500k.

    The First Omen (725k) = 1.4M.

    And Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) = 500k.

    Average: 850-900k.

     

    Not even that bad. The quite good sales in California help. Of course, with so uneven comps we have to take that number with a grain of salt. 

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    The Fall Guy, counted on Friday (= 2 days ago) for next Thursday, had 534 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). Best sales - not very surprising - in the two AMCs in California.

     

    Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): BT (4.6M from previews) had 879 sold tickets = 2.8M + 3 days left.

    TLC (2.5M) had 306 = 4.35M + 3 days left.

    Amsterdam (550k) had 184 = 1.6M + 3 days left.

    Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 212 = 2.8M + 3 days left.

    And Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 sold tickets = 2.3M + 3 days left. 

    Average: 2.75M + 3 days left.

    So tomorrow The Fall Guy will definitely have a better number than 2.75M. The question now is how big its jump till tomorrow will be (till today I saw no big changes but the weekend sales tend to be very small in my theaters). Normally it would have around 700+ sold tickets by tomorrow. But with the reviews already being out and a lot of buzz, Idk.

    So for the moment, that's a decent number in my theaters but its jump could be a bit smaller than usually.

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