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el sid

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About el sid

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  1. It could be either way. Maybe its Friday indeed improved and the Saturday and Sunday numbers are really that horrendous. The family film (Luis und die Aliens) is also down 10k to only 25k now. In the second trend there's only one positive thing and that's that Deadpool 2 is up to 275k (-58%) now.
  2. The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases: Solo: A Star Wars Story: 80k/1.055M US$ Luis und die Aliens: 7.5k -> 35k OW, what a terrible weekend multiplier with that ok Thursday The holdovers: Deadpool 2: 60k (actuals last Thursday 110k) – I don't know why the estimates for this film were both times much too high, but now we were warned. Still, that number alone (60k) against Solo and compared with its opening day would have been pretty nice and without the weekend weather DP 2 would have a good hold this weekend, maybe the next one if that becomes worse weatherwise. A: IW: 16k (23k) - nice Truth Or Dare: 7.5k (8.5k) - really good Jim Knopf: 7.5k I Feel Pretty: 7.5k (7.5k)
  3. Let's say it can be lucky that this state has holidays. I doubt that Solo has that many walk ups but maybe it looks better tomorrow with the actuals. OTOH the first actual numbers from France are surprisingly bad too.
  4. Unfortunately yes, school holidays. And probably the weather wasn't very good in most states today.
  5. Mark_G sees 550k/2.2M admissions OW for Solo, the Drebins (also admins or something like that) see 725k/2.8M total. The Rhein and Ruhr report showed Solo slightly in front of DP 2s last Thursday (around 10% better). DP 2 had an ok hold with a drop under 50% today and Avengers: IW stayed flat compared to last Thursday. The estimates of the whole country saw DP 2 now on its second weekend in front of Solo (93.5k to 88.5k) but last week these estimates were much too high for DP 2. Still, that Solo number isn't something to be glad about. And the South-West report which was pretty reliable last Thursday counted today for Solo 1.753 admissions in the selected theaters and for DP 2 1.542 admissions (last Thursday 3.183 which was on par with the first Deadpool movie). So overall Solo and DP 2 in its second week seem to do pretty similar today. And that means that Solo struggles and will stay far under Rogue One. Mark_G sees a drop of 60% (the Drebins ca. 50%) for A: IW but it looked quite good for that movie in the reports today. How it does on the sunny weekend is another question but today it held quite well especially with Solo released.
  6. I always use wetter.de which often shows much nicer weather than wetter.com (and the truth is mostly in the middle). There the weekend is predicted to be sunny everywhere in Germany. Solo starts in 730 theaters and the reviews are good, but not overwhelming (on par with the US reviews). In one region, Rhein and Ruhr, Solo was significantly leading (250%) this afternoon in comparison with DP 2 last Thursday, but in this state are school holidays. In mathäser the previews yesterday and the shows today didn't/don't look bad, ca. as good as the reservations for DP 2 last week but also with holidays here in Bavaria. But maybe more people are actually come watching as it was the case with DP 2 last Thursday. By the way, several members reported not too good weather in their regions today and here in Bavaria it rained till now but at the moment it's getting ligher. Still, the weather today shouldn't be a problem.
  7. The final trend: #1 Deadpool 2 650k #2 A: IW 155k but still -63% #3 Truth Or Dare 72.5k #4 I Feel Pretty 50k #5 Rampage 45k #6 Liliane Susewind - Ein tierisches Abenteuer 35k #7 Jim Knopf 30k #8 Wohne lieber ungewöhnlich 30k
  8. The Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases: Deadpool 2: 110k/1.18M US$ - Just what happened? Wohne lieber ungewöhnlich/C'est quoi cette famille?!: 2.5k -> 32.5k OW predicted in the first trend The holdovers: A: IW: 23k (actuals last Thursday which was a legal holiday were 150k) - at least slightly better than the estimates Truth Or Dare: 8.5k (38k) ->65k I Feel Pretty: 7.5k (30k) -> 60k Rampage: 5.5k (47k) -> 42.4k By the way I will stop reporting these estimates. They are worthless. Maybe if all the reports from our regions are very congruent I or somebody else can tell that it`s looking good or bad, but that's it.
  9. Yes, but the actual Thursday numbers for this movie were always better because it has still so many showtimes so nobody has to reserve seats. I`m optimistic that due to walk ups it looks better tomorrow. Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts for A: IW a weekend drop of 60% and a bit more than 2.9M admissions including Sunday. And the next week is very movie friendly.
  10. The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: The new releases: Deadpool 2: 174k (released in 694 theaters, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10, overall worse than in the USA. The first movie had 110k admissions (actuals) on its release day. The Thursday estimates back then were a bit too high with 129k, so this could be the case today too but still, that`s a fine number Wohne lieber ungewöhnlich/C'est quoi cette famille?!: 2.5k (a French family comedy, released in 220 theaters, mediocre and ok reviews) The holdovers - we can only hope that the actuals are better but as mentioned the last Thursday was a legal holiday: A: IW: 21.5k (actuals last Thursday 150k; the actuals were so far always higher than the estimates, so this week the actual number could go up too) Truth Or Dare: 6k (38k) I Feel Pretty: 6k (30k) Rampage: 3k (47k) - unbelievable low The Monday is a legal holiday in Germany and in several states (Bavaria e.g.) the Pentecost holidays start on Tuesday which will help during the week.

    Allocine says on February, the 10th, also a Wednesday. With this OD Cine-directors.net predicts for Deadpool 2 a first week with 1.2M admissions, the first movie had 1.284.178 from 10.-14.2. (insidekino.de) and 1.576M (Cine-directors.net) in seven days. So that would indeed mean a slight decrease this time. For A: IW the prediction from Cine-directors is 500k from 16.-22.5. which would be a minus of (only) 35% and a total of around 4.9M admissions.
  12. Yes. By the way, Blickpunkt:Film sees a 600k OW for A: IW. Mark_G (who normally does the better extrapolations) includes the good weather more. @IndustriousAngel Good luck with your marathon .
  13. The first trend looks like that: #1 A: IW 425k/2.05M including Sunday no other film over 50k And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases: Sherlock Gnomes: 2.1k (released in 459 theaters, modest reviews) -> 27.5k OW so far No Way Out: 1.3k (171, good and very good reviews) -> 32.5k HERRliche Zeiten: 1.5k (a German comedy-drama, 130, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10, overall pretty good) -> 10k 7 Days in Entebbe: 1.3k (124, very mixed reviews between 2 and 8/10, overall better than in the USA) -> 15k The holdovers: Avengers: Infinity War: 80k (actuals last Thursday 225k) Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 4.5k whole day (6.2k whole day) A Quiet Place: 4.5k (6.5k) 3 Tage in Quiberon: 4.5k Blockers: 3.2k (4k)
  14. Yes, I know. I just hope it becomes worse than predicted (I`m in Croatia starting Saturday so bad weather in Germany would be even more ok to me ).
  15. The South-West report is probably a better benchmark how well Avengers: Infinity War will hold this weekend. Last Thursday A: IW had 4.753 admissions in the selected theaters and today 2.038. With not too sunny weather that could mean a pretty good hold. The Thursday estimates from all regions show ca. ¼ of last Thursday (56k admissions today) but this number is pretty much irrelevant this week because we got no Thursday estimates last week and so I have no idea how reliable they were. And A: IW has so many playtimes what means you don`t have to reservate seats and walk ups could change this number a lot. Judging from mathäser, I would say sold tickets/reservations looked much better than only ¼ of last Thursday. Tomorrow also looks good.

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