Eric Deetz
-
Posts
37,124 -
Joined
-
Days Won
452
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Eric Deetz
-
-
-
47 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
They should have had the tagline be "Who Let the Dogs Out?"
-
I mean I think there are better ways to spend $100,000, but you do you I guess.
-
lmao I am so here for all of this. Like this was a movie made for me.
-
51 minutes ago, The Dark Samurai said:
What the hell? Why did someone delete my post?
We can't talk about the critical reception of the previous film, while awaiting the critical reception of this one? I guess this forum isn't for me, if mods delete posts that have absolutely nothing controversial in them, with no explanations.
Well if you want an answer, I hid your post because we don’t do this “critics are out to get this movie” rhetoric, because it is conspiratorial and an easy starter for flame wars. You may think this isn’t controversial, but it 100% is. I’m just doing what I think is best for the forum. You may not like it, but it’s just how things are run. But if you’re really this passionate that your post must be seen, I decided to unhide your post. We will not allow this kind of rhetoric further, but I suppose I can let this one post slide. If you wish to discuss this further with me, my PMs are always open.
-
I mean my biggest issue with seeing Moana 2 reaching 600M is just how unprecedented that gross is, especially for animated films. We've only had two animated movies reach it, and both are Pixar films. And I feel like Pixar is a much stronger brand name in terms of bringing in adult audiences that aren't all that into Disney or animated movies in general. This is anecdotal, but my mom hasn't seen a movie from Disney Animation proper since Frozen came out, and she was super pumped for Inside Out 2, and saw Toy Story 4 the day it came out. My dad watches Monsters Inc or any of the Toy Story movies or Inside Out whenever they are on cable, and the last Disney Animation film he's seen is probably...I dunno, when he took me and my siblings to Lilo and Stitch?
I also feel like streaming performance isn't the end all be all? Like Cars sold more copies on DVD than The Incredibles, but their sequel performances are night and day. And even if Cars 2 was actually good, I can't picture 600M...or whatever the equivalent of 600M in 2011 money would be. I dunno. I feel like even 400M would be a crazy overperformance for Moana 2, and I hope people aren't crying if it doesn't even reach that.
-
13
-
-
-
Quorum Updates
Megalopolis T-25: 19.54% Awareness, 39.97% Interest
Heretic T-74: 12.75% Awareness, 34.59% Interest
Moana 2 T-86: 55.67% Awareness, 54.02% Interest
Babygirl T-114: 11.38% Awareness, 33.61% Interest
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-4: 75.45% Awareness, 69.11% Interest
Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M
Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M
Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M
Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M
The Front Room T-4: 26.28% Awareness, 41.6% Interest
Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 30% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M
The Killer's Game T-11: 25.24% Awareness, 45.55% Interest
Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M
Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M
Speak No Evil T-11: 34.51% Awareness, 49.84% Interest
Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M
Piece by Piece T-39: 18.69% Awareness, 35.58% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M
Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 10M
T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M
Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 10M
Terrifier 3 T-39: 27.11% Awareness, 40.88% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 63% chance of 10M
T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 65% chance of 10M
-
4
-
-
56 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:
Just remove the breasts, problem solved.
How dare you say such a thing.
-
1 minute ago, AniNate said:
I feel like it's an outdated mindset based in existential anxiety that doesn't really apply anymore. Streaming is basically the new direct to VHS, it's clearly not gonna kill the theatrical experience.
This movie's current predicament is the clearest illustration yet of just how complicated the reality is now. Still gonna be released in theaters, just not as many as before. Where do you draw the line, and is it even worth it anymore to attempt to draw it? I don't think it really is anymore.
I mean I agree with you. But like...I'm just a guy and the rest of the team came to a different consensus.
But yeah, we'll see if the staff and I can change things up.
-
4 hours ago, AniNate said:
They still say it'll get a limited run of a few hundred theaters, probably won't be reported though.
I reiterate that it'd be easier for everyone if we just combined all streaming and theatrical movies into one forum. The line is just gonna continue to blur from this point, and to be blunt some streaming movies are worthy of more attention than the current setup allows.
We actually had a subforum a la On the Lot that was here in the main forum a few years ago, but it was moved to the TV show subforum because...well, we're a box office forum and streaming is box office's biggest competitor at the moment.
However, I will bring this up with the staff and we'll see if we can take things back. You never know.
-
Can somebody explain to me where this whole "David Ehrlich hates it, so it must be good" thing came from? Because I saw this when he said Alien: Romulus and Dune 2 weren't all that, And like...he liked Twisters, he liked Longlegs, he liked Challengers, First Omen, Bad Boys, Furiosa, Planet of the Apes, Fall Guy, Wonka, Iron Claw, Songbirds and Snakes. He seems no different from any other movie critic out there.
-
-
11 minutes ago, John Marston said:
Too bad there was no other good release date for Twisters it seems because it likely would have past 300m domestically which would have guaranteed 400m worldwide.
Maybe Uni execs didn't realize what they had, but I feel they could have and should have negotiated to have the movie play in 4DX for weeks on end a la Oppenheimer. Granted Chung isn't Nolan, but I'm sure you could have worked out something. Sharing with Deadpool or Alien at the very least.
-
33 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Brady Corbet has come so far from holding leading man duties as a kid in this bomb that just celebrated its 20th anniversary:
I’m one of the 8 people who saw this in theaters and I have no idea why. I think for a friend’s birthday party? All I remember was that Vanessa Hudgens’ character could control scorpions or something?
-
19 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
It finally happened guys!
Inside Out 2 has finally dethroned 2019's The Lion King worldwide! The debate is finally over!
Inside Out 2: $1.666B
The Lion King: $1.663B
World peace has finally been achieved.
-
1
-
-
16 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
$300-399M range would be pretty disappointing, tbh
Cool.
-
1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:
It's insane to think that Moana 2 was originally going to be a D+ series but when it was announced to be a theatrical movie, everyone instantly assumed it would make a billion or close!
Makes you wonder how much money WDAS was leaving on the table in the 90s by not releasing the sequel films to their Renaissance giants in theaters. I see even the shit ones like Return of Jafar making a lot of money, especially during OW. The decent ones like Simba's Pride would have been HUGE.
The idea of a movie that looks as horrific as Return of Jafar or Hunchback of Notre Dame 2 being on the big screen is a concept so terrifying that it can keep a man awake at night.
-
1
-
3
-
-
17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
The first IO2 and Logan aren't even 10 years old yet so they aren't nostalgia bait.
As the man who coined the phrase "nostalgic toy commercial", I have the final say on whether Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3 are nostalgia bait. The answer...is yes.
-
1
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:
I have Moana 2 pegged down for the highest grossing movie of the year tbh. 700 mil+
10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:I think ACU has potential to reach or get close to 100M. Like I think it can get to Anyone But You numbers.
Good luck to the both of ya's. 🙃
-
1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:
Anyway lately every time I see a post about how this or that obscenely successful movie sadly couldn't make even more money, all I can hear in my head is that Wolf of Wall Street line about Leo being pissed off because he was making "just shy of a million a week".
Dune 2 and Wonka should have made more though. Just because.
-
1
-
2
-
-
28 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.
Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend.
No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA.
Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference.
I mean...I guess an extra 50M was lost with Christmas Eve being on Friday...I guess? But you're really overstating how the calendar works. And honestly, I'd argue the Christmas bump in general isn't as extreme as some users here make it out to be. It's there, but a film's not gonna add an extra 200M to a movie's total just because it came out in late December.
-
2
-
-
Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun.
1. Moana 2 (425M)
2. Joker 2 (405M)
3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M)
4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M)
5. Sonic 3 (260M)
6. Wicked (230M)
7. Venom 3 (215M)
8. Gladiator 2 (140M)
9. Smile 2 (110M)
10. Transformers One (100M)
Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs!
I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it.
Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well.
Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas.
But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it.
We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!
-
3
-
-
I made a top 10 for the summer prediction earlier this year, so might as well look back on it and laugh.
On 4/26/2024 at 3:57 PM, Eric Ripley said:1. Despicable Me 4: 415M
2. Inside Out 2: 400M
3. Deadpool 3: 335M
4. Twisters: 205M
5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: 180M
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 160M
7. Garfield: 145M
8. Fall Guy: 140M
9. IF: 135M
10. A Quiet Place: Day One: 120M
The actual top 10 meanwhile is probably:
Quote1. Inside Out 2: 655M
2. Deadpool 3: 640M
3. Despicable Me 4: 370M
4. Twisters: 270M
5. Bad Boys 4: 193M
6. Kingdom of the Apes 171M
7. It Ends with Us: 150M
8. A Quiet Place: Day One: 139M
9. IF: 111M
10. Alien: Romulus: 100M
I was going super conservative because it really seemed like things were going to be bleak and embarrassing for the rest of the year, especially since it seemed like Disney movies and superhero stuff seemed like it would be permanently depressed and down. But alas, I should have never, ever in a million years doubted Mickey's Law. For non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney movies can bomb...but not because of the law. Not making that mistake again.
And all told, despite the law being the law, it was definitely a decent summer all things considered. Still got concerning spots in our NTC hellscape...but it could be worse I suppose.
-
3
-
1
-
Queer | A24 | Luca Guadagnino, Daniel Craig
in Box Office Discussion
Posted