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Eric Prime

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    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Quorum Updates

    Harold and the Purple Crayon T-16: 23.86% Awareness, 33.11% Interest

    Borderlands T-23: 35.5% Awareness, 44.14% Interest

    Cuckoo T-23: 17.06% Awareness, 41.47% Interest

    It Ends with Us T-23: 25.2% Awareness, 40.97% Interest

    Afraid T-44: 9.83% Awareness, 38.55% Interest

    The Front Room T-51: 18.48% Awareness, 39.18% Interest

    The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim T-149: 17.96% Awareness, 42.07% Interest

    Den of Thieves: Pantera T-177: 19.38% Awareness, 35.36% Interest

    Captain America: Brave New World T-212: 48.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

     

    Twisters T-2: 62.95% Awareness, 58.55% Interest

    Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

    Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

    Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

    Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

    • Like 4

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:


    Right out of Mission Impossible’s playbook last year. Which just begs the question, why didn’t they just open it last weekend?

    Despicable Me. That's why.

     

    Universal's not gonna hurt one of their own movies, especially a potential billion-dollar hit. If they put the movie out last week, then DM4 loses all its PLFs to Twisters and gets hit with a potentially bad second weekend drop. By having it on DM4's third weekend, DM4 gets a little more IMAX/Dolby play, resulting in the great second weekend hold it just had, and then will hold well yet again this week thanks to double features with Twisters, and therefore more cash money. From what I can gather, almost every market that got the movie last week got DM4 earlier than its domestic debut.

     

    Twisters' release date still isn't perfect, but last week isn't as ideal as it seems, at least for Uni's bigger picture.

    • Like 4

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Quorum Updates

    Trap T-18: 27.73% Awareness, 50.65% Interest

    Piece by Piece T-88: 14.47% Awareness, 30.79% Interest

    Terrifier 3 T-88: 23.06% Awareness, 38.44% Interest

    Gladiator II T-130: 33.8% Awareness, 45.67% Interest

    Mickey 17 T-200: 8.29% Awareness, 31.95% Interest

     

    Twisters T-4: 61.24% Awareness, 57.5% Interest

    Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

    Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

    Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

    Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

     

    Deadpool & Wolverine T-11: 71.28% Awareness, 68.55% Interest

    Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

    DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

    Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

    DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

     

    Alien: Romulus T-32: 30.49% Awareness, 43.81% Interest

    T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

    Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 36% chance of 30M, 18% chance of 40M

    T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M

    Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 15% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

     

    Blink Twice T-39: 20.66% Awareness, 42.82% Interest

    T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

    Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

    T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

    Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

     

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-53: 60.98% Awareness, 64.66% Interest

    T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

    Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

    T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M

    Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

    • Like 4

    7/12 weekend thread: Longlegs $22.4m, To the Moon $9.4m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    It's summer. There used to be summers where there was a blockbuster opening to 50m every single weekend. Hell, this March proved that movies can survive against each other with multiple big openings. Twisters is doing shit overseas numbers and had weak presales from day one - both those metrics have nothing to do with Deadpool.

    I mean I guess, but I don't think it's fair to say competition doesn't matter. It definitely impacted the examples I listed, and, despite the rating, Twisters and Deadpool are still going for a similar action movie target audience.

     

    Though hey! You could be right that it is all lack of interest, since this is directly advertising to the people who don't go to the movies anymore.

     

    I predicted Indy to be a Top Gun-style breakout, and even thought Twisters could get the TGM audience at a smaller scale, and I've been let down twice. Lesson learned for next summer! Sorry Karate Kid, but I'm going to be bearish on you.

    • Like 1

    7/12 weekend thread: Longlegs $22.4m, To the Moon $9.4m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Will say in hindsight that Twisters probably should have dropped August 2 if it wanted to break out bigly like a lot of us hoped it would. This is basically a redux of Dungeons and Dragons and Dead Reckoning where it had lousy luck opening against a colossal giant. But at least I can understand D&D and Mario having potentially different audiences, or Paramount not expecting Barbenheimer to be what it was. Universal had to have known Deadpool would at least open to the level of Guardians 3 in a worst-case scenario.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    7/12 weekend thread: Longlegs $22.4m, To the Moon $9.4m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

    I wonder what some of y'all would have been saying in the 50s when Disney and Warners were churning out multiple shorts of gags with all their cartoons. They are considered classics now, but such is the essence of the Minions appeal - it's the exact same thing in longer form. 🤷‍♂️

    I mean I grew up watching those cartoons and I still find them funnier than almost anything with the Minions, so…yeah. Believe me, I get the appeal. But if I don’t find their stuff funny, I’m not gonna lie and say I like them.

    • Like 3

    7/12 weekend thread: Longlegs $22.4m, To the Moon $9.4m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    59 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

     

    Just for funsies, here’s a look at all the re-releases from 2022 onwards and how their OWs have all stacked up so far. I’m ignoring Fathom Events or the Spider-Man re-releases, since those are one/two-day only events. If I missed any, and I’m sure I did, please let me know.

     

    1. Avatar: 10.53M

    2. The Phantom Menace: 8.72M

    3. Titanic: 6.71M

    4. Spider-Man: No Way Home: 5.4M

    5. Return of the Jedi: 5.1M

    6. The Nightmare Before Christmas: 4.29M

    7. Jaws: 2.64M

    8. Jurassic Park: 1.7M

    9. Hocus Pocus: 1.61M

    10. Alien: 1.55M

    11. Shrek 2: 1.45M

    12. The Lion King: 1.08M

    13. E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial: 1.07M

    14. The Mummy: 1.03M

    15. The Godfather: 0.96M

    16. Turning Red: 0.58M

    17. Luca: 0.56M

    18. Oldboy: 0.49M

    19. Soul: 0.43M

    20. Amelie: 0.21M

    21. Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon: 0.17M

     

    Stop Making Sense has very wonky box office with its re-release (says it opened at 856K, but also somehow made 1.48M in total that weekend? It’s weird), so I’m excluding that.

    • Like 1

    7/12 weekend thread: Longlegs $22.4m, To the Moon $9.4m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

    I’m kind of amazed at that DM4 hold as the movie really isn’t all that.  Doesn’t seem to matter much to this franchise. Storming to $300 million domestic. 

    None of the Despicable Me movies are all that, and they still make billions. You can have a bunch of Minions play Go Fish for 90 minutes and the masses will still turn up to it like robots.

    • Like 3
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