Caesar
-
Posts
434 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Caesar
-
-
Finally bought my ticket for Wednesday at 6PM, got my favorite seat in the exact center of the cinema, bring on The Batman.
-
2
-
-
On 2/17/2022 at 2:26 PM, Caesar said:
The Batman (T - 13) - Australia (QLD + NSW)
Wednesday night previews (154 showings) - 10.5% (3238/31026)
The Batman (T - 10) - Australia (QLD + NSW)
Wednesday night previews (166 showings) - 12.64% (4187/33125)
-
3
-
4
-
-
Hopefully Uncharted being a success will lead to us getting a God of War movie series and a Horizon Zero Dawn movie.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Uncharted - Saturday (T-1) - Australia (QLD + NSW)
518 Shows
7.41% sold (8413/113482)
-
3
-
3
-
-
This was a great crowd pleasing movie that even managed to get an applause from my showing, legs are growing to be strong for this, I think it'll make 500-700m worldwide.
-
22 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:
1.9B CONFIRMED
Actually NWH should've been released digitally by then so probably more like 2.5B
-
1
-
-
This is basically the followup to NWH so I'm going to go with a $210m OW.
-
19 minutes ago, grim22 said:
With WB not sending the final episode of Peacemaker to critics to avoid spoilers (critics only got the first 7 episodes), I can see that being a very distinct possibility since there's a lot of people waiting to spoil this movie in the most divisive ways possible.
That's just standard for these streaming shows though to only give critics a sample, relatively rare to give critics all episodes even for Netflix where all episodes are going to be released at once anyway.
With people being divisive about the leaks it would be better to get ahead of them and try to get positive reactions out as early as possible.
-
18 minutes ago, Juby said:
The hype for the film get smaller and smaller when Snyder added to it Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Cyborg and The Flash, and even smaller when they push it to May 2016 just tu change it again for March 2016.
Wonder Woman was a major draw for people, the hype for the Trinity was real, that was peak DC hype.
Google trends also supports BvS being more hyped than Civil War whilst The Force Awakens had already been released months prior. The Batman is picking up speed on Google trends and with good reviews it might hit the same level of traffic but by this point BvS had already been putting out larger Goggle trends values than The Batman for months.
-
1
-
-
So it's releasing in China four days after Uncharted is?
That could be an interesting battle.
-
On 2/13/2022 at 12:24 PM, Caesar said:
Alright went ahead and did a full count of The Batman Wednesday previews at the biggest chain in two Australian states (QLD and NSW).
Wednesday night previews (153 showings) - 2255/30632
Highest percentage sold < 100 seat showing - 65.6% (21/32)
Highest percentage sold > 100 seat showing - 38.2% (105/275)
24 showings with 0 seats sold - 4874 seats (mostly regular showings)
Regular showings - 2.3% (336/14790)
PLF - 9.6% (1321/13761)
Lounge seating and dinner service - 28.7% (598/2081)
No comps since it's been a long time since I've done any count here.
Still thinking an opening in the US of around $100 million max. If Australian's coming out of restrictions that have required them to wear a mask whilst watching a movie in the cinemas and seating limitations aren't hyped up massively then I have trouble seeing the US opening being too big.
The Batman (T - 13) - Australia (QLD + NSW)
Wednesday night previews (154 showings) - 10.5% 3238/31026
Highest percentage sold < 100 seat showing - 93.8% (30/32)
Highest percentage sold > 100 seat showing - 52.7% (145/275)
17 showings with 0 seats sold - 3657 seats (mostly regular showings)
Regular showings - 3.3% (482/14796)
PLF - 13.6% (1917/14101)
Lounge seating and dinner service - 39.4% (839/2129)
Starting to look at bit better in Australia. There's still at lot of basically empty 6 PM showings that I would've expected to fill up more but I think that's probably because we've thrown so many showtimes at this due to lack of competition. Interestingly that 100+ seat showing that's 52.7% full is the only 100+ seat showing that's more than 30% full.
-
3
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, dudalb said:
The film sounds good, but I don't think we need to see the death of Bruce Wayne's parents again.......
Maybe this time Martha Wayne will throw a punch that gets them killed.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Tarintino said:
Better/worse than Batman & Robin?
It occurs to me that I've watched Batman & Robin more times than all the other live action Batman movies combined.
8 year old me loved that movie.
-
2
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Justice League is one of the worst movies ever made and still did 90+
It had all the big DC Superheroes together for the first time on the big screen and couldn't even get past $100 million OW.
The Batman is just one of those superheroes coming off two bad films in a row, so it stands to reason that this would suggest a sub $100 million OW. If it manages to over perform and either hit or go over $100 million OW then that's a success.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Again, you keep moving goal posts. You can say the US just loves Batman
Well no, I think their recent box office grosses in their own countries show than the UK loves Bond significantly more than the US loves Batman.
Otherwise the US wouldn't have abandoned Batman when Justice League came out.
-
10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
It was astonishing hit overseas in UK with 130million which was more than Spectre, so why did you exclude that?
Because we're talking about the US OW and final gross.
International markets behave differently and it's not unheard of for a movie to improve its box office even if the previous installment was disliked, plus the UK loves Craig's Bond. It is very rare for the same to happen in the US without a really long break between installments to build nostalgia and history would suggest The Batman gets a significantly lower OW than Batman v Superman.
-
17 minutes ago, Juby said:
It (2017) says hi.
I'm pretty sure that released prior to the pandemic.
17 minutes ago, Juby said:With who do You agree with? Joker did it with lower ATP. without 3D, 2,5 years ago. The Batman will be over $96M on Saturday. It is not good comparison.
Another recent dark DC film, seems pretty comparable to me.
17 minutes ago, Juby said:I remind You that BvS had $166M OW.
Yeah and Spider-Man 3 broke the OW record.
A bad movie with a bad reaction tends to lead to the next installment taking a hit, especially since the last time anyone saw movie Batman it was in Justice League (an even worse film).
11 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:Bond would never have hit 100m OW.
Bond's another good comparison. The last installment was disliked and so even with it being Craig's last Bond film it ended up being the lowest US grossing Bond of the past two decades.
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
I also disagree that audiences are reluctant about dark films when horror has been one of the few consistent moneymakers in pandemic.
They're not making over $100 million on OW though.
I think this film could have some really good legs if there is more to it than the marketing suggests, I just don't believe it's going to have only the second really big US OW since Covid.
-
1
-
-
I mean it's basically TDK but longer and with a trash bag wearing Riddler taking Joker's place from what I've seen. That'll appeal to a lot of Batman fans sure but we've seen Batman in movies like this before.
Joker did a $96 million OW so I agree that it's a good comparison.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was a fun blockbuster, not really comparable to a dark noir film.
Batman v Superman was a Batman film, if I had to watch the Wayne's die again during it (complete with Thomas Wayne throwing a punch for some reason) then it's a Batman film.
Like I said, $100 million is the goal, if it hits that then it should be considered a success.
-
1
-
2
-
-
25 minutes ago, Juby said:
The better example is Man of Steel - highly anticipated return of the DC icon (I rememeber the hype, it was a big deal that summer).
It was a big deal at the time because it was advertised using Nolan's name (at the height of his popularity), plus it looked like it was going to do something new and different with Superman.
The Batman is the second reboot of Batman in 6 years after the first reboot crashed and burned. It's attempting to go backwards ten years rather than do something new. The villains have been seen before in Batman movies and we've seen similar villain setups in Batman movies. We've seen the inexperienced Batman. We've seen Gordon grow into the commissioner role. The fourth actress to be a live action movie Catwoman in the past 30 years. The sixth actor to be a live action movie Batman in the past 30 years.
It's a 3 hour long dark noir film being released at a time when people are hesitant to spend too long in an enclosed space and at a time when a long dark film is unlikely to be the first thing most people want.
WB are also holding back both reviews and reactions to a few days before release, a bizarre thing to do if they're confident in the film and even more baffling to do it for a property with a damaged reputation.
WB should honestly celebrate if this makes a $100 m OW, that should be the benchmark for success.
-
4
-
4
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, 21C said:
I still contend Batman Begins is a terrible comparison because the character is more popular now than he was back then, superhero movies now make more money on average and BvS/JL didn't tarnish the brand nearly as much as Batman and Robin did.
I think it's the best comparison we have. The next best might be The Amazing Spider-Man due to the relatively quick release since the last Batman movie and that movie went from its past installment breaking the OW record to taking five days to get past $100 million (and based on how it did even if it did have a normal 3 day weekend it probably wouldn't have broken $100 on OW).
-
1
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
The hook is that it’s the first true Batman movie in 10 years.
Yes and Batman Begins was the first Batman movie in 8 years and had the additional hook of being very different from the past Batman movies, it still only made $73 million over five days which adjusted for inflation would be very close to my guess of a $100 million opening.
Plus Justice League was only four and a half years ago, BvS was six years ago and we've now had six people play a live action Batman over the past 30 years.
-
2
-
-
I think for me personally I'm not sure what the big selling point of The Batman is that it would attract a big opening in the post Covid and streaming world where people know they can wait a few weeks and then see it in their home for much cheaper with TV's and sound systems that give an experience not far off from going to the cinema.
We've seen a young Batman before, we've seen Batman and Gordon both grow into their roles, we've seen Catwoman played by multiple women before, we've seen the villains before, we've seen multiple Batman grounded movies, we've seen a villain who mocks Batman and tries to outsmart him before multiple times.
Combine that with this movie targeting itself more towards an adult audience at a time when adult oriented movies have struggled and being dark at a time when people aren't necessarily looking for something serious and dark and I think it's in a tough position. Not to mention that really long runtime that I could see a lot of people preferring for home viewing.
I'd be happy to see it perform well and hit a mid $100 million opening though. The cinema's really need something to bring life back to them right now.
-
49 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
Why would Australia be an indication of how the movie will perform in the U.S.?
Australia doesn't really have its own movie industry, we make a few small films a year that are basically watched by very few, instead we tend to focus on trying to attract big US productions to film here.
We also make very little in terms of TV drama and comedy, most prime time scripted shows are imported from the US and the few that aren't are usually only made due to Government requirements for Australian content and tend to get dumped very quickly.
The result is that Australian's have a pretty similar taste for film as the US and our box office follows along relatively closely.
-
3
-
1
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Caesar
It honestly shouldn't be.
Yeah NWH did a mega opening but that was immediately followed by Omicron going crazy. Sure you can hit the young male demo who won't care but that's not going to get you $150m, you need to convince all the demo's to come out for that and I feel like there's a significant amount of people who are willing to wait it out a bit rather than go to a full cinema. Plus you've still got some cinema's in North America running reduced seating capacity.
It's got a full month entirely to itself, even if it opens to $100m it can still easily go over $400m with good WOM. There's no need to worry if it only does $100m on opening weekend.