Caesar
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Posts posted by Caesar
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This sentiment is strange (not speaking only to you B ). The first film opened to 207M and was pretty well received. We've got 3 years of inflation/goodwill buildup, and yet this may end up falling quite a bit short on the OW, a period where sequels tend to increase (I'd hold off on that being conclusive till tomorrow of course).
We know that there has been no shortage of either superhero films or Marvel films in recent years, so given this weekend's performance WHY can't we acknowledge that some degree of fatigue is present, while still keeping in mind that 185-190M is an impressive total? These two points are not mutually exclusive.
The people who saw TA on OW but not TA2 on OW can't possibly be fatigued though, since those would be people who don't see Superhero movies on OW anyway and only went to TA on OW because it was the first movie of its kind.
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I'm thinking this through and it occurs to me that I may have jumped that gun on this doing 190m OW. If it manages to do 87.6 and we assume that the Friday minus previews number has been affected by the 7PM shows on Thursday, then it's possible this could still match or better TA OW.
27.6
60
69
52 (208.6M OW)
A little optimistic, maybe, but I think it's possible.
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So, Avengers got $80.8m OD and reached $207m, but AoU got $85m and would reach $190m OW? Man, you need to brush up your maths, it's quite worrying.
And you can be disappointed guys, but please don't show us how embarrassing you are because it's not disappointing at all...That only means one thing : you don't live in reality and you're not cautious, a life lesson of sort.
The previews for AOU were 9m higher than TA midnights but the business during Friday would have been 5m lower. Since the business during Friday was lower than TA business during Friday, it can be assumed that there is less interest in AOU then there was for TA and that the previews are only higher due to this being a sequel and show times beginning 7PM Thursday.
Basically 190m OW is where it will end up if it acts like the other Marvel movies in terms of how much they made on Saturday and Sunday relative to Friday minus previews/midnights.
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So we're not allowed to be disappointed by this number. 85m OD means 190m OW, 190m OW means 450m-475m Total. An 8.2% drop from TA OW and a drop of between 23.4% and 27.4% from TA total. How is that not disappointing?
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I just realised that an 85m Friday for AOU would mean that its Friday minus previews would only be about 4m higher than IM3 Friday minus previews.
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It this does 85m for OD then OW will be about 192m and the total will be about 480m.
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TA1 got 207m with less than that. So no.
85m is good anyway, better than TA1
Actually with 85m it would be very difficult for this to reach over 200m. It would have already done 4.8m less on Friday minus previews/midnights and it would almost certainly continue to lose ground over the weekend.
Still I'll believe that number when I see it considering that even the early estimates weren't that low and it's 4m below the low range Rth gave. Then again the fact that they're willing to go with a number far lower than anything they reported earlier today is worrying and suggests that maybe they do know something.
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So it's going to do some thing like this i guess ?
Thursday : 27.6m$
Friday : 66.3m$ (93m$ / +140%)
Saturday : 68m$ (161m$)
Sunday : 49m$ (210m$)
Almost no increase from Friday? IM3 increased 16.5%, TA increased 11.9%. AOU only increasing 2.5% would be very surprising.
I think it will look like this.
Thursday : 27.6
Friday : 63.4
Saturday : 71
Sunday : 53 (215M)
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It's amazing that on a box office forum there are so many who don't seem to understand how previews work. Considering that we're not in summer and that AOU is not a young adult book adaptation, 30m was basically a dream. A prediction of 25m would have made a bit more sense, but even then we're talking about a number far higher than anything we've seen for a movie in this situation before.
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Are you Joss Whedon? If not, you sound awfully offended for something you had no creative input in. Get over other peoples opinion's, it's a film, no need for cheep shots.
Like mentioned before, I think it's just as strange giving this particular film an F as it's is an A, because it wasn't terrible and it wasn't very good either, but I respect that people have the right to an opinion.
Who give a crap if this film earns more than TDKR, a lot of crap film's earn a lot of money. Good look to Marvel, hopefully they can reinvest it in better third & fourth film's.
If you didn't like this film then it's probably a given that you are not going to like the third and fourth film. If you think it's confusing with ten main characters then just wait till IW features 20+ main heroes, Thanos, possibly a number other villains and a large number of cameos from MCU supporting characters.
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Word of mouth probably doesn't really affect people who buy tickets ahead of time though. They most likely intended to see the film no matter what. It really affects people who are on the fence and undetermined (walk up sales basically) and we see that in the poor seat saturation.
Still what's being described here would be the almost impossible. The WOM for AOU would have to be so toxic that after only one day of release, people who were considering going on the second day decided not to. All this whilst the movie has huge admissions and is selling massive presales. Is the WOM for AOU in South Korea really that toxic?
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its absolutely possible in this social networking era. Korea has among the most advanced networking( fastest LTE speeds and broadband) plus smartphone penetration is highest. Plus everyone is on some social network or other. So WOM can spread fast. For a movie like SM3 it happened after OW, in today's era it can happen faster.
That being said I am not comparing AOU to SM3. its easily the better film.
Communication can be as fast as possible it still doesn't allow WOM to kick in after one day. Plus if it did then who is buying all these presale tickets, there must have been at least few hundred thousand presale tickets sold Friday unless you think that there were almost no presales for Friday. I would assume people buying presales would be able to see people's reactions to the movie as well.
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What happened is word of mouth just isn't good for this. Everything was stacked in it's favour and it failed to deliver.
There has never in the history of film been a movie where WOM kicked in after one day, it's just not feasible. It also wouldn't account for the massive presales that have been accumulated during today. The better question would be has any movie opening outside of school holidays managed to do days as big as this. If not then maybe there is just a limit of how high the attendance can be for a film on a weekday outside of school holidays.
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The backlash against Dreamworks means there is hope that one day the same will fall upon the exhausting sequelization and expansion of universes and franchises way past the needed point.
If it wasn't for their sequels DreamWorks would only have had 5 really successful movies in 16 years. Without the expansion of the franchises they created with those movies through sequels and TV shows they would never have been able to cover the losses from all their box office bombs.The reason that DreamWorks is in this position is because they kept green lighting movies that attempted to copy Shrek by using similar humour which resulted in most of their movies feeling the same and very little variety.
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Is that even possible?
You're talking about the man who made Dances with Wolves in space into the highest grossing movie of all time, simultaneously bringing 3D back into mainstream popularity. Just watch as he brings in 1 billion Domestic and 4 billion Worldwide for Avatar 2.
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Teenage girls also loved Twilight and we all know what happened to that.
It became an extremely profitable series of movies that made even less sense and contained even less inteliegence than the books, somehow.
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Wins or nominations?
Well realistically they won't be getting nominations, my understanding is that the academy actually requires an actor to appear on screen in the movie, so they'd be ineligible anyway. If they were ever going to recognize motion capture performances then it should be this movie, both Serkis and Kebbell were brilliant.
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So you have seen it. Serkis and Kebell deserve their Oscars don't they?
If the academy doesn't give them both Oscars then damn them, damn them all to hell.
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It should open to about 70m and the legs will be good considering the lack of competition and great word of mouth. As long as it makes it past 200m I'll be happy, although the movie is good enough that it really does to deserve to make more.
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I think APES has a decent chance at opening sub-50.
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It didn't make me cry.., never..
Told you I'm cold.
Watching this the first time is the only time that I really did cry watching either a movie or TV show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6GDil0rGls&feature=player_detailpage
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Transformers has a very basic plot and is filled with jokes (1 in 4 actually work), is an hour too long but has the best action scenes out of every action movie released this year put together. Watch it to admire the effects and the occasional funny line from Marky Mark and Tucci but don't expect to be moved in any way. Also if you smoke its good to go for a cigarette break half way through.
I would rather watch the entirety of ASM2's confusing attempt to connect multiple storylines whilst leaving most of them open at the end than watch another minute of Transformers 4's boring, over the top, action scenes which amount to nothing more than a collection of indistinguishable metal fighting another collection of indistinguishable metal with an occasional human reaction shot.
How can I possibly care about a movie when the most recognizable character in the movie, Optimus Prime, is also one of the least likeable characters in the movie.
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I'm a ten year old kid throwing the control at the screen again, good times.
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If it wasn't for their sequels DreamWorks would only have had 5 really successful movies in 16 years. Without the expansion of the franchises they created with those movies through sequels and TV shows they would never have been able to cover the losses from all their box office bombs.
AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Caesar
It's not a factor at all. For there to be fatigue the people who are not seeing the movie must have become bored of a constant barrage of Superhero movies. How could that be the case when these are people who probably aren't actually watching these movies?