katniss
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Posts posted by katniss
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2 hours ago, Mr Impossible said:Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $124,253,188 27.3% + Foreign: $331,000,000 72.7%
Worldwide: $455,253,188
$470 million+ seems safe.
Wow Hailee and the Bee really kicked the crap out of Emily Blunt and the mouse. I'm glad for Paramount. I was hoping for 4x production budget but 3.7x is almost as nice.
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2 hours ago, Quigley said:
I think that there is nothing wrong with saying that Aquaman's run is not "spectacular" and not "ground-breaking". Other than that, I said nothing else that diminishes its box-office achievements. But rabid DC fans will be rabid DC fans, so they'll always try to silence anyone who disagrees and any chance of a sensible discussion is thrown out the window...
lol nice try troll. Aren't you the genius that was waxing poetic about the also ran known as Mary Floppins? Aquaboy ran that garbage over real fast lol.
Aquaman is on track to challenge Civil War and has already conquered Christopher Nolan. It's spectacular for sure, and groundbreaking for DC. As a solo superhero origin movie, only Black Panther outclasses it in terms of box office performance.
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It's on track to hit 330 million domestic and 1.12 billion worldwide. Not including Japan of course. If it has a mini breakout of 30 million in Japan, it can defeat Civil War.
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40 minutes ago, Noctis said:
Yea, I'm actually surprised at how utterly mediocre its run has been. Still, with home video sales it'll turn out a decent profit. I'm actually more surprised with WIR2's numbers overseas. It's basically opened in every major market except France and Germany and has done $262m OS.
Not sure home video is gonna make up for the costs of MPR - it is dangerously close from going from a disappointment to a flop.
130 million budget plus 100 million for marketing = 230 million costs.
320 million total gross multiplied by 0.5 = 160 million in studio revenue. Losing 70 million on a 230 million investment qualifies it as a box office flop for sure, if not an outright bomb.
ETA: Or are there other markets that havent opened yet for MPR? If so, they could salvage the movie. It needs to make over 400 million to break even.
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55 minutes ago, Quigley said:
Guys, let's not overdo it. Yeah, it was successful, but making $1B, or even $1.1B, in 2019 is hardly spectacular. Aquaman will probably reach a peak rank of about 25th on the WW chart. 10 years ago, the 25th biggest film was 'Spider-Man 2' at $783.8M. While a very strong result, it is hardly anything ground-breaking.
All-time WW chart in January 2009: https://web.archive.org/web/20090116175944/https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
It is, however, WB's first film to reach $1B since 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' in January 2013 – a full 6 years ago. It never felt that long until I actually thought about it. Disney made the mistake of not releasing Solo on Christmas. The bitterness from 'Last Jedi' would have faded and WB would have never dared to set Aquaman against Han Solo. Well done for WB to grab the opportunity. Outside 2 DC films (Dark Knight Rises and Aquaman), WB has Hobbit #1 and HP7:P2. The Dark Knight reached $997M before being re-released, 6 months after its original release date, to cross the billion-dollar mark.
lol nice troll post. AQM is going to approach Civil War. Just crazy. NO ONE, except me, predicted it would do this well. I had it pegged to beat TDKR to become DC's biggest grosser ever.
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I'm happy for this movie. It had its weak spots (the storyline, the sidekick dude) but the characters, the visuals, the Bee, and of course Hailee mfing Steinfeld more than made up for it. I actually cared about both the Bee and Hailee. Das huge for a TF movie.
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1 hour ago, Barnack said:
I am not sure where that rules of thumb come from, but it look extremely optimistic imo, completely underestimate the movie total budgets.
In the 10 year's or so of leaked accounting of sony, they spent 28 B on the movie they made/released, breakdown of cost looked like this:
Source of expense Total % DTH MARKETING (5,866,385) $ 21% DTH PRINTS COS (871,294) $ 3% DTH WPF DUES OTHER COS (340,165) $ 1% ITH MARKETING (2,601,562) $ 9% ITH PRINTS (COS) (1,062,961) $ 4% ITH WPF, FREIGHT, OTHER (COS) (270,762) $ 1% DHE MARKETING (1,044,398) $ 4% DHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS (1,280,725) $ 5% IHE MARKETING (486,013) $ 2% IHE RELEASING COSTS - MFG COS (820,764) $ 3% TV MARKETING (43,802) $ 0% TV OTHER COSTS COS (68,834) $ 0% DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (9,256,003) $ 33% OVERHEAD (808,450) $ 3% PARTICIPATIONS (2,234,617) $ 8% RESIDUALS (1,024,544) $ 4% Total (28,081,279) $ 100% In average you had to add 200% of the production budget to get to it's final cost has they tend to be around just 33% of a movie total expense, obviously higher the budget lower that amount get, but your total cost estimate for MPR is not much above a small movie like Moneyball (170M) and below a Captain Philips (225m).
At certain point in the late 2000, the budget for prints alone of wide world release was of $70m.
WOW. The rule of thumb was just stuff i read here and on the Net, you're supposed to add 50-100 percent of a movie's production budget to get actual total costs. I went with 50% just to be conservative. I never imagined the marketing budget would be 200% the production budget. Damn.
Is there any chance that studios have ways to reduce the total cost of movies that aren't accounted for here? For example, even though Sony spent 19 billion on non production budget costs as stated here, are there any items like film production tax credits that would help offset this ginormous amount?
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5 hours ago, expensiveho said:
I think it's a marketing problem.
Every non-SH DIsney movie has failed to reach its full potential since Beauty and The Beast. (Maybe TLJ wasn't bigger DOM because of its divisiveness but it was certainly a marketing failure OS)
They do know how to milk merchandising from all the movies, but the way they've been treating the movies themselves hasn't been half as good as WB or Universal, especially OS. But they're still the biggest studio by far so I don't think they'll worry unless the MCU starts falling apart.
Marketing is the answer. For all of Disney's strengths and the impressive way they've built their animation and Marvel properties, it is the WB that really stands out as world class marketers. WB are absolute pros at this. Crazy Rich Asians, Aquaman, and A Star is Born were standouts this year, and who can forget IT from last year. If i were a filmmaker, i would have no problems entrusting the marketing of my movie to WB.
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2 minutes ago, TMP said:
It costs $130m, but Disney tends to over-spend on P&A, so who knows how much they'll need to break even [i'd assume $350m worldwide?]
Yeah, I just went with the rule of thumb to add about 50% to a production budget to get the total budget, so 130 million production budget and 70 million for P/A for an even 200 million total cost. Using the other rule of thumb that studios usually take in about 50percent of total global revenue, it would mean 400 million is the breakeven point. I'm pretty sure MPR will get there but i'm not sure about getting to loftier numbers like 500 million worldwide or better.
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2 hours ago, JB33 said:
Just saw MARY POPPINS RETURNS in an almost full theatre. Anecdotal, I know, but people are going to continue seeing this for awhile so legs will be really good.
I forget who, but someone here said when they watched it they just felt happy. Now I understand the feeling. I'm a 30 year old man and yet I caught myself smiling wide on multiple occasions. It's a movie that just makes you forget about everything going on in your life.
Good legs won't really make up for terrible opening though, hopes for a massive BATB like success are long gone. With a total cost of 200 million at minimum, it needs to gross around 400 million worldwide to break even.
Domestic will be 140 million after this 18 million weekend. Giving it generous holds of 14, 11, 9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 2 for remaining weekends, gives us 57 million for weekends, then add in the proportional 33 million weekdays gives us 230 total domestic. To meet 400 million, MPR needs to double its foreign totals from 85 to 170 which it should do with more markets opening but the question is how far above 400 will it get?
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2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:
If it does 25M (which I doubt) then 300 is absolutely back to being a real question.
Be the change you want to see in the world.
lol this is locked for 300 no matter what barring some black swan event.
25 million gives it 255 million. It's gonna EASILY make 35 million just on weekends alone throughout the rest of its run with weekdays at 20-25 million. Blockbuster movies have really long tails after the big 2nd or 3rd weekend drop.
255 million after a 25 million weekend through Sunday.
13 million
8 million
5 million
3 million
2 million
1.5 million
2 million for the last few weekends of its run
These conservative weekend totals give it 290 million. All you need is 10 million from 2 months+ worth of remaining weekdays.
But given a much more likely 20 million minimum from weekdays, 310 million is also locked.
The real fight happens between 310 - 330 million. 350+ is not out of the question either if the holds are better than expected.
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36 minutes ago, Newland Archer said:
Aquaman will be lucky to get to 300, Poppins to 200, Bumblebee to 120, Spiderverse to 150, Vice to 40...
lol Aquaman is locked for 300 million. It's gonna be over 240 AT MINIMUM by next Sunday. You have to be trolling if you think this won't make 60 million in the remaining 10 weeks of its box office run. lulz
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Frozen is one of the most plain, overrated animated movies of the last 10 years. How it made more money than Dragons 2 is sad.
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"Cuiusvis hominis est errare: nullius nisi insipientis, in errore perseverare"
Marcus Tullius Cicero, Philippicae XII. 5
LOL. Why are you calling yourself a fool? Or is this your mea culpa admitting you were dead wrong?
It's ok bro, we've all been there. It takes guts to come clean and admit your failures. I give you credit.
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Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle. Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross.
But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop. The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences. Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time.
Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed). But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals. Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys.
And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel.
This prediction is a toughie.
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Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle. Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross.
But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop. The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences. Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time.
Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed). But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals. Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys.
And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel.
This prediction is a toughie.
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Yet Captain America 4879273739372629463 will still be #1 of the year domestically.That must eat you up inside, huh?
Not really. $240 mill domestic, 740-750mil WW is much more than i could have ever dreamed for Maleficent. Beating DOFP and TASM everywhere, and beating CA2 WW, is just icing on the cake!!
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People expected Maleficent to be the highest grossing movie of the summer? To come close is good enough, people didn't even expect it to gross 200 million.
+1000. Just a lot of butthurt from DOFP fanboys who still can't believe how well Maleficent has done.
The top 3 movies of the summer will be TF4, Maleficent, and hopefully Apes, with DOFP and TASM nowhere in sight.
And to add salt in their wounds, TF4 and Maleficent could very well take 1 and 2 in the WW box office standings until December. -
Awesome numbers. Maleficent right on track to 238, kicking DOFP's overrated ass off to the curb in a few days domestically, and WW in a few weeks, with just a little help from Japan. lol.
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To maybe explain why, what's is normally the biggest weekend of the year was a bust this year, the worst in over 15 years with the lowest grossing #1 film since 1992...Frozen DVD Release (July 16th):Frozen was released on DVD and sold 1.514 million copies in a week. That's about ¥8.2 billion ($80 million) worth of sales in a single week.This gives it the biggest first week sales of ever, ahead of Spirited Away's 1.406 million first week sales, and Finding Nemo's 945,000 first week sales.But not only did it break the first week sales record, 1.514 million ranks it as the 3rd best-selling DVD ever. In one week, it surpassed the lifetime sales of EVERY film except for Spirited Away and Finding Nemo And it'll become the #2 best-selling DVD really soon when it passes Finding Nemo's 1.565 million copies. DVD/CD sales are very, very frontloaded in Japan, so it'll still need some time before it beats Spirited Away's 2.41 million copies, but it will likely do so.Yokai Watch 2 Game Release (July 10th) / Advance Movie Tickets Sell Out:Yokai Watch 2 sold 1.312 million copies in 4 days (about ¥5.4 billion ($52 million) in sales), making it the best-selling video game in Japan already this year and the biggest first-week sales since Pokemon XY last year (1.867 million).And 3DS sales were up 286% for the week as a result. The first Yokai Watch game was also #3 for the week.Not to mention that advance tickets for the first moving being released in December sold out of the first wave of 500,000 tickets in 2 days over the weekend. That's almost 150,000 more tickets than any film did in admissions over the weekend for comparison.That's a lot of money being spent in a week. So maybe, just maybe, with these two huge releases for families and kids leading into the Summer vacation weekend, the weekend was deflated and will recover next weekend.
This proves my point about Frozen and the idiotic decision to release the DVD so early in its run. The Japanese eyeballs that should have been plastered against the silver screen in a Toho cinema are now plastered against the LED TV at home.
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Transformers will pass Maleficent before Maleficent passes DOFP.
Yep.
My master plan is coming together: TF4, Apes, and Maleficent finishing top 3 for the summer. Hopefully, TF4 has enough juice to pass CA2 for #1 domestic - it's already obliterated DOFP and CA2 WW.
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Box office numbers say otherwise.
Dunno know about that. $230 million for DOFP sounds great, until you realize it cost 170 million to produce and probably another 90 million to market.
Compare that to legit, original movies like Neighbors or Fault in Our Stars, which have ROI of 400-500%.
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By this logic Superhero films should've died out years ago.
Frankly, they should. They're repetitive, boring, cliched, and totally unimaginative. Is anyone really going to shed a tear if CA 231283080480 doesn't get made? Or Iron Man 384023402308??
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Do you all think this will outearn DOFP on a WW basis? DOFP is at 738 million WW currently. I guess the key is Japan (along with the US, with folks predicting this will earn about 12 million more to hit 240 million domestically).
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And to add salt in their wounds, TF4 and Maleficent could very well take 1 and 2 in the WW box office standings until December.
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted
Why? I thought Japan generally has much better multipliers than the US. I remember Frozen had some crazy 20x multiplier from OW.