James
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Posts posted by James
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This looks fantastic!
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2 hours ago, Belakor said:
Since last year the CBM fatigue has really kicked in, bad products produce bad reception, is simple as that.
This year the only big one could be D3 and that is not even guaranteed if the movie fails to click in.
For 2025 and forward, the industry needs to bring something new or the genre it's going to suffer the same fate the 90's action flicks had.
The X-Men are not huge, BO wise they have never been big. None of the previous films managed to do more than 770M
Ummm... Joker 2?
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People are really bullish on Michael. Do we really think it will be THAT big?
And I have a feeling Passions 2 will blow over even the most outage prognostications. Imo it goes over 1B.
Avatar will likely fall again but I can see it around 1.8B
I also feel 2025 will be a death blow to superhero movies. I see none of them making over 500 WW and most flopping/bombing.
Minecraft will be the new Mario so over 1B.
Zootopia 2 will drop significantly from the first one but it will still do 700m imo.
The new Jurassic imo goes under the recent trilogy. Probably around 800m.
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GxK late legs have been amazing and yesterday it became the highest grossing Godzilla movie worldwide. I will also beat Skull Island for highest grossing monsterverse movie WW by the end of its run.
And Challengers looks poised for a 40% drop this weekend, which is pretty great. It has a long leggy run ahead of it.
Truly Warner Bros is on a roll this year.
Not everything is bleak.
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My wild predictions:
- Despicable Me will likely be the biggest movie of the summer Worldwide.
- Twisters will pull a San Andreas.
- Wicked will finish under 400m WW.
- Joker will be the biggest movie of the year WW.
- The LOTR animated movie will be the biggest movie of december WW.
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4 hours ago, Gokai Red said:
Just a friendly reminder that it was this weekend 5 years ago (same calendar configuration too) that Avengers Endgame premiered and broke a bunch of records. I wonder when we'll get a movie that can top that opening weekend, which is currently the longest held opening weekend record.
I bet the inevitable Harry Potter sequel, with another 5-10 years of inflation, will do it.
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It’s beyond me why WB is not fast tracking another Conjuring movie, as well as another Annabelle and another Nun. Those movies are so cheap to make and they are printing money.
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160 DOM OW
410 DOM
550 OS
960 WW
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Imo, after Deadpool & Wolverine I don’t see a sure fire hit until the next Avengers movie. I see both Cap 4 and Thunderbolts under 500m WW (imo Thunderbolts will be a mega-bomb) and Fantastic 4 is a wildcard, but historically these characters never broke out on the big screen. Maybe 600m if the WOM is out of this world. But really, I expect a repeat of 2023 for Marvel, but without the saving grace that was GOTG3.
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Given its initial warning handicap on Youtube, it's impressive that the trailer for this already passed the trailer for Deadpool and Wolverine in views in just 5 days. I don't know about 169m OW, but I do think 150m is achievable on sheer hype alone. What the legs will be - that's another matter completely and I have no idea.
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9 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:
Approximate 24h views (from main/official channels + Lady Gaga channels):
YouTube: 11m
Twitter: 16.6m
Insta: 40m
FB and TikTok seem low for this, <5m for both on the main channels+Gaga but I might be missing something.
Don’t know where you get that, but Twitter alone has over 40m views only from the big english channels I see: WB, DC, JokerMovie, Lady Gaga and Discussing Film. That’s not even accounting for smaller channels or foreign WB accounts.
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I think that pre-trailer teaser with Joker laughing in the rain actually hurt the trailer views of the actual trailer. For example on Twitter on the DiscussingFilm page the pre-trailer has 31m views in one day and the trailer has 12m in 15 hours.
Same story on the DC official IG page. Of course, WB doesn’t care about that because either way it’s hype for the movie but it makes it harder to track and compare the impact of the trailer. Maybe a poster like Deadpool did would have been better as a pre-trailer tease.
But yeah, this is enormous on TikTok, Twitter and IG. On YT I really think that warning is hurting it, especially giving how big it is on other platforms.
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3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
I mean, whether it's good or bad, whether people love it or hate it, whether the musical elements are only in support of the movie or the whole thing, whether it collapsed after its OW... Those are all valid questions. But undoubtedly the buzz is there. This is gonna open much higher than the first.
This. I really really have a hard time seeing this under 150m OW.
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The trailer makes it look like Harley might be the abuser in this relationship instead of Joker. That would make for a really interesting twist.
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Yeah, this will be enormous. I love the social media side of things and this will be a phenomenon on TikTok. And TikTok blew up DM3 and Barbie. And if you think all the couples out there won’t dress up like Joker and Harley🤣
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To be honest seeing how much hype Joker has: the first teaser poster went viral everywhere and trended like crazy I have a hard time seeing it under 200m DOM. Imo it will do close to 150m OW alone.
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This is the exact same style used for the first Joker teaser poster, down to the colors. It looks great imo
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2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:
I think WB have a good year ahead tbh
Barbie was a phenomenon. Wonka and Dune 2 are highly solid hits and seems like GxK is coming to a similar result.
Furiosa shouldn’t reach this heights but it should do well enough with ~400M, which is decent considering the budget is rumoured to be around 150M. If it can get out of Cannes with great reviews I bet it will do well.
Joker will be big no matter what, maybe not Joker 1 big, but very big.
The LOTR animated movie should do very well not only because it’s a Christmas release but because it’s a very stable franchise, just look at all 3 hobbits doing around 1B despite being meh. Being an animation will prevent it from those numbers but it’s probably a lot less expensive as well.
Even the 1-2 punch of the Shyamalan’s should do well since they’re horror and not expensive.
Beetlejuice seems to be the tricky one but it’s not an overbudgeted movie and the reports are that the movie is decent so it can do well enough.
Sure if we count things like the Costner movies than it gets difficult, but it’s his own movies, the distribution is between them and New Line. I wouldn’t count it as a WB joint.
But yeah, very solid slate and full of actually potentially great movies from celebrated directors.
This. Aside from the Costner movie everything else is decently budgeted and pretty much risk free (yes, even Joker; 200m or not, even if the movie is bad, and the rumour is it’s the exact opposite, it will make back its money in a week max).
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17 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
WB very much needs that since the rest of their year outside of FURIOSA and JOKER II is weak.
Beetlejuice, Furiosa, Joker 2, Lord of the Rings, Twisters - all should do at least well.
Trap and The Watched - WB is usually very good with promoting horror movies.
Challengers, Red One, and Horizons - I have no idea.
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6 hours ago, poweranimals said:
Um. Sonic 3? Karate Kid reboot?
Neither of these two will be that big overseas where I suspect LOTR will hit it big.
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The release date for this is now December 2024. Also since this is less than a year from release shouldn’t it be moved to the main part of the forums?
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I’m really starting to think that the Lord of the Rings animated movies has a good shot of exploding. December is pretty empty except for that Lion King movie that I’m not so sure about. And given how so many people from the movies are returning behind the scenes there’s a good chance this could be good.
Especially overseas, the potential is huge. Could see it over 500m WW.
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I don’t think people being fed up with IPs is the problem. IPs are still the name of the game and looking at this year’s TOP 10 it’s easy to see why.
The problem is imo a combination of 3 factors:
1. Drop in quality and choices that are unpopular with the GA. Let’s take Marvel for example. Granted, there is superhero fatigue but just look at GOTG. It made a ton of money because it was very well received. Similar to Spiderverse. And Joker 2 will make a ton as well if it’s well received. Same with Deadpool 3.
Star Wars played the nostalgia card but the drop in quality was obvious. People who don’t understand the source material were put in charge.
Same with Pirates of the Caribbean. Same with Harry Potter. And a ton of other franchises. But let’s not kid ourselves: when that Harry Potter sequel will drop with the OG characters that will break all kinds of records. Same if they make a Tolkien movie with Peter Jackson returning.
People were burned too many times by bad movies.
2. Streaming changed how audiences consume content. I am going way less often to the cinema now than before covid tbh.
3.Asia in general and China specifically moved away from Hollywood content, which caused overall inflated WW grosses of the 2010s to drop even more.
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Well, dropping 81% from opening day is still better than the -92% in China and is more in line with the rest of the known overseas drops so far. Though to have that as your silver lining…
Tbh I don’t even know what to say. I remember people saying Fantastic Beasts 3 was a flop but that made over 400m WW. This is locked to only make around 190m if lucky. Tbh I think this is history in the making. I don’t think we’ll see a bombage of this level again anytime soon.
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It Ends With Us | Sony | August 9, 2024
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Yeah, this will be huge. The book is bigger than Crawdads ever was.