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2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
James replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
Neither of these two will be that big overseas where I suspect LOTR will hit it big. -
2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
James replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
I’m really starting to think that the Lord of the Rings animated movies has a good shot of exploding. December is pretty empty except for that Lion King movie that I’m not so sure about. And given how so many people from the movies are returning behind the scenes there’s a good chance this could be good. Especially overseas, the potential is huge. Could see it over 500m WW. -
I don’t think people being fed up with IPs is the problem. IPs are still the name of the game and looking at this year’s TOP 10 it’s easy to see why. The problem is imo a combination of 3 factors: 1. Drop in quality and choices that are unpopular with the GA. Let’s take Marvel for example. Granted, there is superhero fatigue but just look at GOTG. It made a ton of money because it was very well received. Similar to Spiderverse. And Joker 2 will make a ton as well if it’s well received. Same with Deadpool 3. Star Wars played the nostalgia card but the drop in quality was obvious. People who don’t understand the source material were put in charge. Same with Pirates of the Caribbean. Same with Harry Potter. And a ton of other franchises. But let’s not kid ourselves: when that Harry Potter sequel will drop with the OG characters that will break all kinds of records. Same if they make a Tolkien movie with Peter Jackson returning. People were burned too many times by bad movies. 2. Streaming changed how audiences consume content. I am going way less often to the cinema now than before covid tbh. 3.Asia in general and China specifically moved away from Hollywood content, which caused overall inflated WW grosses of the 2010s to drop even more.
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Well, dropping 81% from opening day is still better than the -92% in China and is more in line with the rest of the known overseas drops so far. Though to have that as your silver lining… Tbh I don’t even know what to say. I remember people saying Fantastic Beasts 3 was a flop but that made over 400m WW. This is locked to only make around 190m if lucky. Tbh I think this is history in the making. I don’t think we’ll see a bombage of this level again anytime soon.
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Mockingjay Part 2 made 660m on a 160m budget (+55m in advertising). That’s 4x it’s budget. Or 3x if you include advertising. Not only was it not a flop, but it made Lionsgate a ton of money from theatres alone. Was it a disappointment compared to previous Hunger Games movies? Yes. But to compare it with mega bombs like The Marvels is utterly ridiculous. They don’t belong in the same conversation and neither does MJ2 belong in the same conversation with Divergent, which was indeed a flop/bomb. Marvel spends way more on their projects nowadays and they keep flopping/bombing one after another. That’s the problem.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
James replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
No. It’s LIKELY it gets under 50m. The kicker is there’s a chance it gets under 40m. This movie is like a perfect storm of doom. -
Eh I doubt it goes that low but I saw Shawn’s official prediction of 35-49m for the DOM OW and looking at the even worse OS numbers I do think there’s a (not slim) chance this finishes under 200m worldwide. Funnily enough, I think it might perfectly mirror Birds of Prey, but with lower overseas numbers.
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THE MARVELS | 121.6M overseas | 206.1M worldwide
James replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Literally no chance this makes 80m OS this weekend. I would be surprised if it touches 60. -
As a casual fan, I lost interest in Marvel because: 1. it’s just too much to follow and it feels like homework at this point 2. I wouldn’t mind that if I actually cared about any of these new characters but at this point not even Marvel itself seems to care enough about them to develop them 3. The character assassination of someone previous favorites: Wanda, Thor. At this point that idea of bringing back IM and Cap seems like the only thing that could draw me back in. I am excited about X-Men and Deadpool though, but only because I feel I can go in without watching 1000 botched movies and TV shows beforehand. I really hope they will keep it as simple as possible. This multiverse stuff is really too much.
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2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
James replied to kayumanggi's topic in Box Office Discussion
I think the crown for next year WW is between Joker 2, Deadpool 3 and Despicable Me 4. And I think Joker 2 will actually take it home (if it looks halfway decent) and be the only movie making 1b+. Deadpool and DM4 in the 900m range.