Melvin Frohike

May 4, 2016

14 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

I know WOM carried it after it opened, but why did Frozen have such a high opening weekend? Better marketing? High interest in the subject matter? Love of magical girls?

It may well have been all of the above. WOM aside (that came later, of course), Frozen enjoyed a lot more hype from the start, including from various media outlets. People in Japan seemed to immediately see something compelling about it, even at the most superficial level at first. Its opening weekend was short of enormous, so WOM was really what carried it the most, but still it did open very well, especially for a WDAS movie.

For comparison, here are Zootopia's Japan teaser and trailer:

And here are Frozen's:

In my opinion, Frozen was marketed better in Japan than Zootopia, and it was marketed a lot better in Japan than it (Frozen) was marketed in NA, as well. Oddly, it almost seems as though Frozen were a Japanese movie in these trailers, at least to me. :lol: Perhaps it always inherently had greater potential for this market--I don't know for sure, but that's what I think. So I wasn't surprised when Zootopia didn't wow us with its opening weekend, although I've always felt that once people actually saw the movie, then it would catch on, and we're already seeing signs of that.

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

Well, doing half, or even 40% of Frozen's total would easily qualify as a smash hit in Japan.

Very easily--in fact, a movie grossing 40% of that is generally considered a mega-blockbuster that doesn't come along every year, and even 25% would easily qualify as a smash hit.

14 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Japanese song versions came out weeks in advance and we're big hits. The hype was big before it opened

Very true, although Frozen somehow opened very well in NA, too (almost as well as Zootopia), despite a lack of visible hype and an awful, frankly stupid-looking marketing campaign--even the main poster was stupid (while other countries like Japan, Spain, France, etc. got beautiful, classy posters). I think that many people just looked at it and felt they had to see it, and then WOM and the cultural phenomenon took over from there (actually started a couple of weeks into its NA run, unlike in Japan where it was there almost from the beginning).

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

I think it will do a bit more. Zootopia's track record speaks for itself.

I think it can and will, too, but as for track records, they don't always count in every market, especially Japan. More than a few major global blockbusters have underperformed or outright flopped in Japan, and this includes multiple movies from WDAS and for that matter Pixar.

10 hours ago, Foul01 said:

This might be the first time Zootopia has managed to out-pace Conan in the evening.

Actually, I wasn't watching the whole time, but on Tuesday I saw Conan start to rapidly close the gap in the afternoon, but then when I checked late in the evening Zootopia had actually pulled farther ahead than before, so it was already outpacing Conan in the evening on that day.

4 hours ago, GOXOG said:

with this kind of performance,can it get to 1B ww or need more break out

With a normal-ish run based on what we've seen and are seeing, it can, but it will likely be close, so it still may not. However, it's still too early to tell just how strong this movie's legs can become, and given what other recent WDAS movies have done in this respect, in addition to what Zootopia has been doing in some markets, I wouldn't put a hard cap on what it could potentially gross. Well, it almost certainly won't gross more than $139M (with Frozen's record multiplier and today's exchange rate), but beneath that, who knows? In terms of projections, as opposed to prognostications, it looks like it could reach $60M, which is actually a bold statement, generally speaking. But it could do more....

2 hours ago, Mrstickball said:

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN..

It looks that way right now, but Zootopia will likely be losing a fair number of theaters in the near future, so I don't know. I ran a bunch of different scenarios, and always seem to come out with a figure from $19M to the low $20Ms. And with its legs in NA and that early video release, it will probably not have much of an extended run in second-run/dollar theaters (Frozen didn't for these reasons).

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Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more. If it holds slightly better (25% drops on average), you're looking at $25m.

Yeah, it could happen, but I wouldn't count on it at this point.

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Certainly up to Japan to break the $1b mark, but I think that it only needs about $60m LTD in Japan to hit the billion mark... But given its great legs so far, may add some padding to this great run.

Right, $60M from Japan would almost certainly do it, and for all we know it could be more. Even if it falls short of $60M, though, I still think that $1B is more likely than not. In fact, if I had any balls to speak of, I'd already call it locked, but I'm a spineless, limp-dicked coward when it comes to this stuff, so I won't.

May 3, 2016

1 hour ago, Melvin Frohike said:

Detective Conan is starting to catch up again. What is it with Zootopia and evenings?

And an hour later now, Zootopia starts to pull ahead again...of course! :lol: Perhaps the result will be less predictable this time. We'll see.

May 3, 2016

46 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

Maybe its because people who want to watch Conan don't want to watch it before the evening?

Its a detective suspense film, not exactly something you want to watch while its still sunny outside

That's an interesting theory. I never would have thought of it myself because personally what's outside of the theater makes zero difference to me, but maybe not everyone is like that. :thinking:

May 3, 2016

23 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

By the way, how does average ticket price give us information about demographics?

The connection would be vague at best, and subject to a number of other factors, but I was under the impression that generally a higher proportion of children would result in lower ticket prices. A significant difference between these two movies in this respect, with Zootopia on the lower side for the sake of argument, might suggest a relative lack of adults going to see the movie without children as one reason for its sales dropping off starting in the afternoon. However, these two movies have practically the same average ticket price, which would seem to suggest that there isn't a major difference in their audience demographics. This proves nothing, but I have to grope for clues wherever I can find them.

May 3, 2016

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

　*1　*71964　ズートピア(Zootopia)

　*2　*56997　名探偵コナン２０１６純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

Holy shit, it's finally breaking out.

I hope so, but don't look now, Detective Conan is starting to catch up again. What is it with Zootopia and evenings? :blink: Is it starving for showings? Based on their average ticket prices, it does not appear that one movie skews significantly younger than the other in terms of audience demographics, so it's probably not that.

May 2, 2016

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Not just a hold, but an increase.

While most of the others dropped. That looks like a good sign to me. I don't see why some seem to assume that it's not going to hold exceptionally well after GW, as well. We don't have any kind of trajectory yet, either way, but WDAS movies tend to be leggy (especially in Japan), and this nice increase in the face of all of the drops would seem to indicate the same of Zootopia. I think that $60M is doable, and this means that $1B is doable, even likely with some help from all of the other markets (still holding strongly in NA and several others).

1 hour ago, Quigley said:

If the tickets are discounted, shouldn't it be the other way around: e.g. a 20% increase in tickets will only generate a, say, 10% increase in revenue. So weekend gross holds will be lower than the admission holds?

Maybe he meant drops instead of holds? :thinking:

May 1, 2016

On 4/30/2016 at 0:09 PM, Jason said:

Generally speaking the US dollar has strengthened against most currencies in the past couple years. For some currencies there are more specific reasons such as low oil prices, but it's also because the US economy has been outperforming all other developed countries.

A lot of this is due to the US, it seems--a currently relatively strong economy, decreased dependence on imports, and increased oil and energy production (much of it being the result of the controversial "fracking" technology). As for Russia specifically, the whole sanctions thing was brought on by Putin, and that hurts, but the oil price thing quite possibly hurts even more. He's probably not the greatest fan of the US at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow took all of this personally. I wouldn't be too surprised, either, if he were the pilot who has been buzzing US Navy vessels at a 30' distance...and that he does it while being shirtless. :lol:

On 4/30/2016 at 0:09 PM, Jason said:

@LMAbacus did an analysis on reddit that calculated an extra $84 million for Zootopia at 2013 exchange rates, as of about 1 week ago.

Nevertheless, I don't think Zootopia reaching $1B at past exchange rates is going to satisfy many of us.

Yeah, "Coulda shoulda woulda :bash: " has always been a pretty poor substitute for "Did it! :bop: "

3 hours ago, Arlo245 said:

$7.4 million. OS-Japan brought a discouraging $0.9 million.

If Friday isn't included in Japan's weekend gross (since a box office weekend in Japan is only Saturday-Sunday anyway), then it's not nearly as discouraging.

May 1, 2016

On 4/27/2016 at 11:54 AM, cannastop said:

No, just perhaps under the same ownership. It's not like Pixar and Walt Disney Animation Studios combined.

It seems that they're going to let Meledandri decide how much involvement he wants with DWA at the top. DWA will apparently, at least for now, retain their creative leadership, minus Katzenberg--Meledandri may assume a role like Lasseter's at Disney if he so chooses, and I think that's exactly what Universal/Comcast would like.

On 4/28/2016 at 10:45 AM, BK007 said:

Not that I like Katz, but Meledandri hasn't yet shown the little ambition Dreamworks have had in making the quality of both story and animation in movies like Dragon, Panda, Guardians and so on.

That's right, and some of the media have gone way overboard in crowning Meledandri as some kind of animation king or guru. :rolleyes:

On 4/28/2016 at 10:45 AM, BK007 said:

Despicable Me has already jumped off a cliff with Minions and Pets looks horrid.

And I'd hardly consider Ice Age, with which he was originally involved, some kind of godsend. Not that those in his position deserve as much credit/blame as they typically get, but in any case all he has had is a few successes--albeit humongous successes--at the box office (plus ancillary markets), but other than that little has been accomplished under his leadership.

On 4/28/2016 at 10:48 AM, cannastop said:

It's not all up to Meledandri for the movies to be good, you know.

But does he have the ambition and drive to make great animated features? He seems all about keeping costs down and thereby maximizing profit to me (not a bad idea, generally, but not exactly the mark of a creative leader, either). What effort does he put in getting the right people and getting them to make the best movies they possibly can?

On 4/29/2016 at 8:24 PM, cannastop said:

It would be utter madness to close the Glendale Studio.

But it would be so costly to keep operating indefinitely as a full production studio. Even Disney and Lasseter outsource production for DisneyToon's movies (but neither WDAS nor Pixar at this time), and DWA had already been outsourcing some of their work to China and India anyway. Illumination outsource their production to France, which offers government subsidies, of course; the studio, Illumination Mac Guff, is owned by Comcast, but it can still be considered outsourcing to another country where costs are substantially lower (for one reason or another), and the same is very likely to happen with DWA eventually, which for many would mean the end of DWA as we know it. You know, I've never really been a fan of DWA, but nevertheless...

On 4/29/2016 at 8:24 PM, cannastop said:

It would give WDAS and Pixar a chance to do a hiring frenzy.

I imagine this would be pretty meaningless to Meledandri and Universal (unless the latter want to be like Disney even more than I think!).

April 30, 2016

I don't know, Tarzan as a superhero might work these days, but on the other hand how long has it been since a Tarzan movie became a big hit, as this one needs to be? The 1960s...the 1950s? I mean besides Disney Animation's 1999 animated feature, since it's hard to separate the Disney factor from that.

I will say, as a fan of the original pulp novels, that probably everything that could be done right has been done right, from what I've seen so far, which is quite gratifying. This seems closer to the real Tarzan character than I can recall ever seeing, so in addition to hoping that it's a good movie aside from that, I sure hope that it will be successful in any case. Generally speaking, it looks good, and I hope it will gross at least $400M OS, too, but I don't know how the public views this.

April 30, 2016

12 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

considering even Big Hero 6 made $76 million in Japan, i think its very possible especially considering Zootopia is in the top 2 Japan box office now.

I wouldn't say "even Big Hero 6" because that movie was a huge, extremely leggy hit in Japan, grossing over ¥9B, while Zootopia still has to show us what it can do (and has gotten off to a slower start in this market so far). Out of all of WDAS' (Disney Animation's) animated features, only Frozen has grossed more, and out of Pixar's only three have grossed more (in yen). The latter group does not include Inside Out, which grossed well under half of what Big Hero 6 grossed in Japan despite easily grossing more domestically and worldwide. At this point, we can only hope that Zootopia is able to match that performance, much less expect it to.

12 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

not guaranteed yet, but very possible

Absolutely possible, but still looks to be close, either way, unless Zootopia really breaks out (still looking for signs of that).

April 26, 2016

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

Lots of Japanese commentators are talking about the feminist aspects of Zootopia. Maybe that will give it a boost.

Could be, as this is thought to be one of the zeitgeist elements that helped propel Frozen.

April 25, 2016

19 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I think Zootopia fans should be nervous about that number.

$4m OW means it is going to need a 15x multiplier, which will be difficult, to get to $1 billion.

Realistically, yes, but WDAS movies have been killing it with WOM in Japan lately, and while Zootopia is a different movie (as they all are individually), all indications (few though they may be) are that its reception in Japan has been fantastic. Maybe WDAS can get that 15+ multiplier a third time in a row for the "hat trick." If it were just up to chance, then I would say that this is crazy, but it's not just up to chance.

19 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Not bad. Actually close to the 15 year average

The exchange rate is better than it was for Big Hero 6--about halfway between that and Frozen's, and that isn't bad (it's been getting better, unlike in some regions).

By the way, with the exchange rates enjoyed by Toy Story 3 we'd be talking about a 12 multiplier instead of 15.

19 hours ago, cannastop said:

I actually am pretty nervous about Zootopia's $1 billion chances.

I've been "nervous" about it for a while, but the movie's box office performance has so far lived up to the quite lofty expectations needed for such a run. It will be close, either way, but until this movie stops delivering surprises, I'll still think it will make it.

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However, combined with the legs in North America, it think it has a shot. And it's not like Zootopia is a stranger to large multipliers. Also, the Japanese audiences online seem to recognize Zootopia as something really special.

WDAS in general are not strangers to large multipliers, including Japan. A 15 multiplier is really, really large, to be sure, and generally rare, but it has almost become routine for WDAS, as three of their last four animated features prior to Zootopia have achieved it. People still tend to underestimate WDAS and won't exactly flock to their movies on opening weekend, but when they like what they see, they sure get the word out.

Last time around, Big Hero 6 faced what seemed to be overwhelming competition from a local (Japanese) animation franchise, but ultimately came out ahead. Zootopia likewise faces such competition, and although it has come in well under BH6's opening weekend, this could simply mean that it's even more underestimated. In Japan, with some obvious exceptions for some movies/franchises, most people have a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to movies (more so than in most markets), but if the ones who saw a new movie really like it, then others--possibly very many others--will come along eventually.

18 hours ago, Planodisney said:

I think 1 billion is almost dead.

The only 2 markets it underperformed my expectations are Japan and the U.K. Japan still has a shot but I don't see signs of a breakout.

Signs of a breakout, from our perspective, would be in the movie's holds and its legs, and that remains to be seen. The only other sign has been its critical reception, which is highly positive in a way that would seem to suggest great WOM and legs.

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Anyway, it's going to finish just ahead of DM2 WW and International number and right around Minions domestic.

Pretty awesome for an original animation.

Yeah, either way it has been and will be a most impressive run. But there may yet be another surprise or two in store.

April 25, 2016

On 4/23/2016 at 6:46 AM, Cynosure said:

Yeah, the most likely scenario in Japan is a multiplier around 10 or 11 so a $50-55M total there for a WW total of $980-985M.

That may be a safe bet, but WDAS have had three movies with 15+ multipliers, almost all in a row, and those in Japan who have seen Zootopia so far seem very impressed indeed. I'm normally pretty conservative, myself, but as tough as a 15+ multiplier is to achieve in general, there are signs pointing to this movie being well able to achieve it, and this should push it over the $1B WW mark.

On 4/25/2016 at 5:26 PM, cannastop said:

A few Japanese reviews on yahoo movies say that the movie is too intense for children.

I don't know why I keep seeing this. To me, at least, Zootopia doesn't seem any more "intense" than usual for WDAS.

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Or maybe people expect Disney to be more lighthearted.

They very often seem to, and there are always some complaints from parents who feel that anything from Disney should be completely "safe" for toddlers and infants, but I still wonder why there have been more than usual for Zootopia.

April 25, 2016

19 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

On the plus side though, Hunchback did much more respectably than it did in NA. And it warms my heart to see Aladdin above The Lion King.

I'll take both of these and a lot of other movies over The Lion King.

17 hours ago, Cynosure said:

TLK is a bit overrated. It has a great first part, an awesome last part but the entire sequence between Timon and Pumbaa meeting Simba and him going back to the Pride Lands is kind of terrible.

Its high points are very high, but I don't buy that Simba is so worthy and high & mighty and superior just because he's Mufasa's son. Mufasa, despite his much better qualities than his son's, was a pompous snob, anyway. And Zazu was pompous enough on their behalf to make them look even worse. What a bunch of unappealing characters! I don't think that any of this inexplicable promotion of royalty supports the intended themes of the movie, either. This movie looks pretty, but ultimately is phony and weak.

17 hours ago, Heretic said:

Surprised Tangled isn't higher in Japan, it seems like the sort of film that'd do amazing there.

I would have thought so, too, even with the earthquake and nuclear disaster, but maybe the market wasn't "ready" for it.

17 hours ago, Heretic said:

Also, it's so much better than Frozen.

No way--as great as Tangled is, in my opinion Frozen outdoes it in both overall appeal (even though I tend to favor Rapunzel as a character, personally) and the sophistication with which it supports its themes (have to look past the surface and into its symbolism).

17 hours ago, cannastop said:

It has a high rating on yahoo movies, though. Almost as high as Zootopia's.

Tangled is better than Zootopia, in my opinion, although Zootopia is really good.

17 hours ago, Olive said:

Tangled was so unlucky , it opened right on the weekend when the biggest earthquake in Japanese history occurred.

True, although it seemed to rebound for a good while before its legs gave out sooner than I would have thought. Tangled would have grossed significantly more if it weren't for the disaster, but at the same time it didn't exactly catch fire like I would have expected or hoped for.

16 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

I remember that. There were a lot of folks lowballing Frozen based on Tangled's performance too without taking into consideration that devastating earthquake. Making Frozen's actual performance all the more shocking!

While this is true to some degree, I don't think it's by much because even $100M would have been massive low-balling.

5 hours ago, zackzack said:

Locked: Zootopia will hit $1B WW

Even given the uphill climb Zootopia has in front of it, I still think it has a good chance of cracking $1B WW. But locked? Er, no, not yet. Let's see if it can get that 15+ multiplier in Japan and some help from strong late legs in NA, where it seems to be rebounding (like a bunny? ) once again from a big opener in the previous weekend. And who knows, maybe Disney will do something to help it get past that milestone if necessary, like they did in pushing Tangled's DOM gross over $200M.

April 24, 2016

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

100M DOM
800M OS

Ice Age 12:

30M DOM

1.5B OS

0 Japan

April 23, 2016

22 hours ago, cannastop said:

And a multiplier of 20 isn't out of the question, in my opinion. Yes, that is near Frozen's multiplier.

If you think it can get near Frozen's multiplier, then that would be 33.34, which would take Zootopia to a final gross near $150M, given the way things are looking now. Since 1998 only five movies (that grossed ¥1B or more) have had multipliers higher than 20, so it would be a historic run.

16 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

Edit: Actually, aren't there at least two such movies? Unless Box Office Mojo is wrong, both Tangled and Frozen have 15+ multipliers, and both were released in March. Add to that Big Hero 6's 15.29 multiplier (even if it was released in December), and you have three of the last four Disney animations hitting the mark. In that light, Zootopia reaching it doesn't look all that exceptional.

It sure seems that Tangled had a multiplier of around 17.6, although it should be noted that when a movie opens so small it is easier for it to have an outsized multiplier. In this case, the movie opened the day after the Tōhoku earthquake struck and on the same day as the start of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, so its opening was presumably significantly smaller than it otherwise would have been, thereby inflating its multiplier. But even so, I get that WDAS movies tend to be very leggy (worldwide, including Japan and NA), and that even a 15+ multiplier in Japan is not as unlikely for them as it is for movies in general, so it's a possibility that I wouldn't immediately rule out.

15 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Corpse

Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-]

I wonder why Tangled isn't included on this list.

April 23, 2016

On 4/11/2016 at 7:06 PM, Olive said:

Frozen was heavily marketed in Japan, marketing budget probably more than $30M...It was bound to succeed.

Bound to succeed, perhaps (as an original foreign animated feature in Japan? :blink: ), but succeed the way that it did, no way!

On 4/11/2016 at 2:11 AM, Mojoguy said:

I don't see why Zootopia can't make what Big Hero 6 made in Japan ($76m).

That's a lot of money for Japan at the current exchange rate, and these two movies may be perceived rather differently. I'm not saying that it can't gross more, I'm just saying that whatever made Big Hero 6 gross so much (and with such a huge multiplier) may not apply to Zootopia--what the latter does it will do on its own (Disney/WDAS branding aside).

On 4/18/2016 at 7:51 AM, Aristis said:

In Germany Zoo managed to increase despite the Opening of JB. Where drops in other countries that bad?

The drop in NA (43%), for one, wouldn't be bad for most movies, but it was for an exceptionally leggy one like Zootopia. I'm usually one to downplay the effects of competition ("cannibalization"), but in this case I think it was pretty clear that The Jungle Book impacted every other movie (except for BvS, which would have dropped like a stone anyway ).

On 4/20/2016 at 0:18 PM, Arlo245 said:

Also Big Hero 6 did so well in Japan and China and with how well Zoo did in China, it would make sense that it'd do gangbusters in other east Asian countries like South Korea and soon hopefully Japan

These are three very different cultures, so in general I think that very little can be taken for granted. For example, there have been many western animated features that performed well in either Japan (usually Pixar or WDAS) or South Korea (usually DreamWorks), but not both, and based on a more limited set of data, the same seems to apply to China.

December 22, 2015

6 hours ago, shayhiri said:

PIXAR WENT THE WAY OF THE DINOSAURS...

Well, birds are considered dinosaurs (official now by scientific consensus), so maybe this means that they will continue to evolve and soar high in the sky.

December 22, 2015

20 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

The point is it should have made more because of the brand.

Maybe the Pixar brand did make it gross more than it otherwise would have. :unsure:

20 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

Quality is only a minute factor, Cars and Cars 2 were both total shit and look at how much they made.

It's true that quality usually doesn't matter much (especially before release)...except when it occasionally does. Clearly Cars and to some extent Cars 2 were very popular with children, which is reflected in this franchise's tremendous merchandise sales. Before anything else can be considered, however, the movie itself has to have something that "hooks" the audience (like bait for catching fish) in a major way, and Cars had it (at least for a great many children) while TGD evidently, judging by its box office performance, did not.

December 22, 2015

13 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

Well Pixar's first flop came the first time they ever released two movies in one year. Correlation doesn't imply causation, but sometimes it works out that way.

Well, a sample size of 1 (for Pixar specifically) is usually not considered statistically significant in identifying trends , and counting all studios, like I pointed out earlier there are counterexamples.

13 hours ago, RichWS said:

Saturation comes from the same genre, not the same company. Minions and Inside Out open within 3 weeks of each other and both make well over $300M. If Minions happened to be from Pixar, I doubt it would have made any less. And I don't see how the franchise example works here. IO and Good Dinosaur are two completely different films.

Even more generally I think that the impact of "cannibalization" (competition) is frequently overstated. By and large people will go see the movies they want to see eventually--it's far from a zero-sum game at any given point in time regardless of what else may be playing. In addition to your example, there was the summer of 2013, which had Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University both get big grosses. If the total box office more or less holds steady from year to year, then I think that's more of a result of the law of averages than the notion of a fixed amount people spend on movies each year. I seriously doubt that people have a yearly budget for movies--they'll spend more on movies and less on other things if there happen to be a lot of movies that interest them, and vice versa. The bottom line is that each movie and its marketing must get their attention and interest.

13 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

There was no Disney Animation film this fall, though. You think TGD would have made more money if they didn't put the Pixar label on it?

It plain didn't connect. That's all there is to it.

And whether the following are valid/deserved or not, many pre-release perceptions of TGD by many people were negative. Not enough people found the characters appealing, and many also stated that it felt overly derivative (i.e. been there, done that). It just didn't garner their interest enough, one way or another, despite the usually potent Pixar brand name. The brand still has some pull, certainly, but it no longer guarantees a top-notch movie--not since Cars 2 at the very least.

December 21, 2015

7 hours ago, goldenstate5 said:

I can not believe this is going to actually limp across 100 million and will be the lowest-grossing major studio animated release this year. Of course, you technically have to discount Shaun and Strange Magic but those were two cheap films that were basically released on a default... I can't call it "major" in any sort of capacity.

After the devastating drop this weekend, TGD currently projects to about $132M domestic with Tangled's trajectory from here on out, which I consider optimistic since the latter had great WOM and above-average legs. On the other hand, there is a chance that this weekend was an anomaly due to a certain disturbance in the Force , so let's see whether there will be some semblance of a recovery during Christmas weekend.

As for Strange Magic, I guess it effectively counts as a minor, "cheap" release, but I think the reality is that it cost quite a bit, and this cost was simply buried deeply in the whole Lucasfilm acquisition deal. Disney dumped this movie because they didn't care for it and saw no potential in it, but I think it had cost Lucasfilm quite a bit.

7 hours ago, goldenstate5 said:

Although I don't think it had anything major to do with it, but the fact that Inside Out had an event-ish vibe to it with the lack of Pixar for two years compared to this one with little hype does make you think. This is the shortest break ever between two Pixar films.

Normally I wouldn't expect for there to be enough people who are even aware of such things to make a real difference, but yeah, I noticed this, too, and will file this away for future reference. Who knows, there may be more to it than either of us would have expected.

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

The same studio releasing two animated movies in the same year is a bad idea. One movie always tends to underperform.

It will happen with Disney next year when they put out both Zootopia and Moana.

While historically it is true that this usually happens, DreamWorks Animation managed to pull off two big hits (worldwide) in the same year in 2008 and 2011, for instance. Do you really think that WDAS have absolutely no chance of doing this even if, for the sake of argument, the general public find both of their 2016 releases appealing and both turn out to be good movies?

December 20, 2015

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Those directors gave the world Aladdin and The Little Mermaid. They should get to be Rulers of the Free World if it were up to me.

Well, it could be that even Lasseter himself isn't above viewing these guys as "rock stars" because of what they accomplished more than 20 years ago, but they haven't had a big hit since. I think it just goes to show that Lasseter and Pixar/WDAS really are fundamentally (underneath any compromises they may be forced to make at times, like everyone) about making the best animated features they can. John Musker and Ron Clements' box office success early on certainly counts for something, but that was a LONG time ago now.

52 minutes ago, John Marston said:

this will be the first PIXAR film to lose money

Yeah, at this rate, at least, I don't see it turning a profit even with all of its revenue streams combined. Its total cost is simply staggering--Tangled managed to make a tidy profit despite similar turmoil and cost, but it was a much bigger hit and importantly had rather robust ancillary revenue streams (especially home video, without which it would have lost money, too). The numbers just aren't there for The Good Dinosaur.

By the way, it's not that it's pleasant to dwell on this, but I think that Pixar/Disney fans have to keep telling ourselves these things over and over so that we'd actually come to believe and accept it. There are many (not so much here but elsewhere in general) who still assume that Disney could do their usual synergistic "magic" and somehow manage to profit from this movie, but looking at the numbers, apparently not this time.

December 20, 2015

10 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't know. This is turning into a pretty massive bomb at this point. I know it's not "fair" so to speak that it gets taken out on him, but it likely will. I don't see him anywhere near the directors chair for awhile at least.

It depends on what Lasseter and Pixar's creative staff collectively blame for the movie's severe underperformance. If they fault the movie itself because of a perceived shortcoming, whether it involves story and/or even something as basic as surface appeal, then it could potentially be blamed on the filmmakers, including the director. WDAS' Frozen managed to overcome (before it was released--never mind the phenomenon that happened afterward) atrocious marketing because one way or another it held some appeal for many people. Maybe even its dumb trailer and ads appealed to those who were simply looking for a fun, energetic-looking movie, and nothing more. Young children might have simply looked at the protagonists and thought "Ooh, pretty!" or the sidekicks and thought "How cute!" but the bottom line is that they wanted to see it (the box office doesn't care why). And the same was true of Tangled, to a lesser but sufficient degree.

So for The Good Dinosaur was it the marketing or an inherent lack of mass appeal in the movie itself? I don't know, but what I do know, for one thing, is that I've rarely ever seen/heard so many complaints about character design, leading up to a movie's release. I'm OK with the character design, and it's about what I'd expect from Pixar, but for some reason apparently a lot of people don't like it and have been vocal about this. Then there is the clash between the characters and environment, which doesn't bother everyone, but it sure bothers some. Personally, although I do understand the purpose behind this clash--pitting the environment and nature itself against the protagonist--purely in terms of aesthetics, admittedly I think it's a bit distracting. If I had to change this, then I would keep the characters the same and tweak the environment to suit them more, but the vast majority of people I've talked to want the exact opposite--they almost universally want ultra-realistic-looking dinosaurs to go with this environment. And maybe that's a more general reason some dinosaur movies gross a lot more than others, in addition to the public perhaps greatly preferring to see vicious, monstrous dinosaurs.

It's tough to say, but the question again is how much of this will be held against the director. Nothing happens in a vacuum there, so are Pixar collectively responsible or was it a result of the director's approach? Did Sohn fight to convince Lasseter to keep the movie a certain way (sort of like his predecessor)? If so, then maybe his gambit didn't pan out, and therefore his directorial career at Pixar is screwed. Or maybe nothing of the sort happened and he will remain on Pixar's current rotation of directors because Pixar collectively like this movie a lot despite its underperformance at the box office. Either scenario (or something in between) could be true. I haven't heard anything definite from the inside on this so far.

December 20, 2015

11 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

I have to think at least someone high up sees his potential. Hopefully next time he won't be burdened by public production troubles and an already inflated budget and will be given a fairer shake.

If we're looking for signs here, then apparently it didn't show up in any kind of significant marketing push that featured the director and producers, for example--Disney are still trying to sell the movie in a generic way (and I'm surprised that they're still trying). Then again, studios and filmmakers don't always get what they want when it comes to marketing and how the folks in that division do their job. Lasseter may report directly to Iger these days, but Iger is loath to tell others how to do things--he tends to judge on long-term results rather than how well he thinks they're doing. A couple of good examples are WDAS' Tangled and Frozen, which had really bad pre-release marketing that frankly made these movies look stupid to most who have any sense of discernment, I would think, but this did not reflect what Lasseter and other higher-ups thought of these movies, and the same is likely true for The Good Dinosaur; or at least it's not necessarily false, as I'm unsure of what they think, and it may be difficult for them to be fully objective at this point because of just how protracted their struggle with it was, along with its disappointing reception (perspective will come with time).

9 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

Haha, no. It totally killed it.

Yeah, the numbers for Friday are bad in comparison to those of previous animated Thanksgiving releases--very bad--whereas the movie had been keeping up in terms of drops, more or less, until now. If it doesn't recover--and so far there is no reason to believe that it will--then The Good Dinosaur may well come in even lower than current projections.

7 hours ago, The Futurist said:

This thing is dead.

Not only that, at this point it looks extinct. It still has a chance to break out in several large overseas markets it hasn't opened in yet, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

6 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

It's Pixar's Treasure Planet, pretty much

Well, those directors keep getting chances--they have Moana coming up next year. Of course, they also have much more of a track record, but on the other hand that includes several flops, so I guess as long as Lasseter has faith in a director and likes their ideas, then they always have a chance.

December 20, 2015

On 12/12/2015, 5:19:57, goldenstate5 said:

Hall was a co-director for both. Sohn could see a co-directing job, but he won't be fully handed a feature film anytime soon. That's all I'm saying.

WDAS do not have a Pixar-style "co-director" role, and still do not, as far as I'm aware. At Pixar, for each movie generally there is only a single credited director and frequently one or more subordinate co-directors who take on some of the workload--this is somewhat similar to the old WDAS system of a supervising director leading a group of sequence directors (and everyone ultimately answered to Walt), although the work may be distributed differently. During the Disney/Animation Renaissance, WDAS switched to using either a single director (and that's it) or dual-director teams--the latter ended up being the more common case, and whether a project started this way or a second director was added later, both are considered full directors with equal clout and must collaborate closely as a team themselves, whether they sharply divide the work between them or work on everything together (usually it ended up being a combination of both, as we might expect--whatever works best for them and the project overall). The latter is more like how live-action director teams (e.g. The Matrix, Captain America: The Winter Soldier) generally work, I believe, while Pixar's system is possibly more like the common individual directors having one or more assistant directors, I guess (with their co-directors maybe having more authority than ADs, I don't know).

This is why you'll never catch me saying things like "Chris Williams co-directed Big Hero 6" or "Jennifer Lee co-directed Frozen"--nope, these movies and many of WDAS' other movies of the past 30 years have two directors each (working equally as a team), and no "co-directors" in the Pixar sense. Not that this would be incorrect English, it's just to avoid confusion with Pixar's confusing terminology (they probably should be called assistant directors like they are in live action).

On 12/12/2015, 5:28:35, Spidey Freak said:

The situation with Winnie the Pooh was different. It wasn't a dump job by any means (and it has a 90% RT to prove it). Someone thought it would greatly thrive as counterprogramming to DH2... and was proven wrong. That and it was the last breath for a major Western studio produced hand drawn film.

WDAS tried their best to make a good movie (as they and Pixar always do) that in this case was aimed more at children than the general audience that they normally target, and most critics think that they succeeded, but Winnie the Pooh was still a minor, low-budget, low-expectations (in terms of box office) movie nonetheless. Perhaps they expected a bit more than it got, but it still can't be compared directly with WDAS' other animated features.

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