Now Variety and Bloomberg are both reporting EntGroup as confirming a $49.8M (312M CNY) OW-haul for The Hobbit: BoTFA, accounting for more than half of receipts among the 20 top-grossing films currently in China.
Using X-Men: Days of Future Past as a China Opener (OW) comparison, here's my prediction for Hobbit: BoTFA:
21 (ranking) X-Men: Days of Future Past $39,350,000 33.8% (percentage of Total): $116,490,000
11 (ranking) The Hobbit: BoTFA $49,850,000 39.1% (percentage of Total): $127,500,000
The OW for Apes was, according to Box Office Mojo (China: All Time Opening Weekends), less than TBoFA:
12 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $47,006,968 43.8% (percent of Total): $107,355,317