I have submitted my vote for 2017. I mentioned earlier that I this can be easily arrived at by a simple extrapolation of the rate of growth. I have spent some time considering other more complex models, but I have yet to see any concrete reason to discard the simple extrapolation over such a short time period.
I have also been seeing evidence that even (presumably) more complicated models mostly match the expected date provided by the simple extrapolation. example
The truth is of course that all these models are wrong. For example the extrapolation of growth is hilariously wrong thirty years out; it predicts something like $13 trillion. I simply think that over the course of two years reality won't likely stray far from the model. This is based mostly on a smoothness assumption which I think is perfectly reasonable here.
I am much less confident in my other predictions of year of first billion dollar film, and which franchise the film is a part of. I basically guessed 2022 for the year, because I am very uncertain where the box office could be by then. For the franchise, I choose the Monkey King, which I took to mean any film predominantly about the monkey king. This was pretty easy to choose given the reliable track record of such films and the fact that Chinese officials think of it as a quintessential Chinese story.
I think that to change my mind about the year of passing domestic box office (give or take one year) one would need to explain why the smoothness assumption is invalid here.