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POTUS 2020

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POTUS 2020 last won the day on May 9 2018

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About POTUS 2020

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  1. The daily gains lagged a bit Sat-Tues but its on course to exceed 55% today. 80-100% expected tomorrow. 30-32m PS will happen. The question now is will the PSm be 3.3, 4 or 5 or more which happened a few times Like you I'm still sticking with $50m OW as the likely outcome. but low 40s to 70s can happen Its up to 89k shows, its probably lagging because the CNY holdovers will demand a decent amount of shows still. It will have less than 40% of shows whereas most others have 40-50%
  2. updated. 5B not dead but may be difficult. 4.7B/$700m locked ORS 9.4 XR 6.35 TWE 9.3 XR 6.74 WW2 9.7 XR 6.70 Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Fri 130 166 26.1 214 317 47 Sat 148 13.8% 314 49.4 313 46.3% 630 94 Sun 188 27.0% 502 79.1 367 17.3% 997 149 Mon 224 19.1% 726 114.3 273 -25.6% 1270 190 Tues 246 9.8% 972 153.1 188 201 30 293 7.3% 1563 233 Wed 271 10.2% 1243 195.7 258 37.2% 459 68 279 -4.8% 1842 275 Thur 241 -11.1% 1484 233.7 340 31.8% 799 119 228 -18.3% 2070 309 Fri 212 -12.0% 63.1% 1696 267.1 384 12.9% 1183 176 266 16.7% 24.3% 2336 349 Sat 226 6.6% 52.7% 1922 302.7 416 8.3% 1599 237 406 52.6% 29.7% 2742 409 Sun 239 5.8% 27.1% 2161 340.3 417 0.2% 2016 299 426 4.9% 16.1% 3168 473 Mon 142 -40.6% -36.6% 2303 362.7 339 -18.7% 2355 349 243 -43.0% -11.0% 3411 509 Tue 124 -12.7% -49.6% 2427 382.2 258 -23.9% 2613 388 229 -5.8% -21.8% 3640 543 Wed 111 -10.5% -59.0% 2538 399.7 215 -16.7% -16.7% 2828 420 197 -14.0% -29.4% 3837 573 Thu 97 -12.6% -59.8% 2635 415.0 352 63.7% 3.5% 3180 472 165 -16.2% -27.6% 4002 597 Fri 133 37.1% -37.3% 2768 435.9 181 -48.6% -52.9% 3361 499 150 -9.1% -43.6% 4152 620 Sat 150 12.8% -33.6% 2918 459.5 233 28.7% -44.0% 3594 533 217 44.7% -46.6% 4369 652 Sun 112 -25.3% -53.1% 3030 477.2 192 -17.6% -54.0% 3786 562 202 -6.9% -52.6% 4571 682 Mon 49 -56.3% -65.5% 3079 484.9 99 -48.4% -70.8% 3885 576 100 -50.5% -58.8% 4671 697 Tue 44 -10.2% -64.5% 3123 491.8 108 9.1% -58.1% 3993 592 87 -13.0% -62.0% 4758 710 Wed 40 -9.1% -64.0% 3163 498.1 81 -25.0% -62.3% 4074 604 75 -13.8% -61.9% 4833 721 Thu 68 70.0% -29.9% 3231 508.8 72 -11.1% -79.5% 4146 615 60 -20.0% -63.6% 4893 730 Fri 39 -42.6% -70.7% 3270 515.0 80 11.1% -55.8% 4226 627 63 5.0% -58.0% 4956 740 Sat 62 59.0% -58.7% 3332 524.7 120 50.0% -48.5% 4346 645 91 44.4% -58.1% 5047 753 Sun 50 -19.4% -55.4% 3382 532.6 92 -23.3% -52.1% 4438 658 89 -2.2% -55.9% 5136 767 Mon 21 -58.0% -57.1% 3403 535.9 38 -58.7% -61.6% 4476 664 45 -49.4% -55.0% 5181 773 Tue 19 -9.5% -56.8% 3422 538.9 34 -10.5% -68.5% 4510 669 39 -13.3% -55.2% 5220 779 Wed 18 -5.3% -55.0% 3440 541.7 30 -11.8% -63.0% 4540 674 36 -7.7% -52.0% 5256 784 Thu 16.4 -8.9% -75.9% 3456 544.3 26 -13.3% -63.9% 4566 677 32 -11.1% -46.7% 5288 789 Fri 17.3 5.5% -55.6% 3474 547.0 30 15.4% -62.5% 4596 682 26 -18.8% -58.7% 5314 793 Sat 30.7 77.5% -50.5% 3504 551.9 55 83.3% -54.2% 4651 690 40 53.8% -56.0% 5354 799 Sun 25.5 -16.9% -49.0% 3530 555.9 42 -23.6% -54.3% 4693 696 43 7.5% -51.7% 5397 806 3650 574.8 4900 727 5683 848
  3. POTUS 2020

    What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

    If they build another 10,000 screens this year, they might over saturate the market and many will run into financial difficulty. CNY was flat this year. After booming well above annual market growth. With a flat CNY it will be interesting to see how the year plays out CNY 2017 2018 1 1,277 1,445 2 1,028 997 3 942 927 4 868 849 5 818 827 6 802 770 Total 5,735 5,815 Post CNY 7 656 602 8 530 446 9 519 376 10 513 668 10 day Tot 7,953 7,907 Admission growth was the lowest since 2008. Adm per screen was below 30k for the first time for the data we have. Revenue fell below the 14 year average and well below the 9 year average since Rev p/screen cleared 1m. A flat CNY could lead to a flat or down year and Rev p/scr could fall well under 1m. If so, we will read article by years end that the theater business is trouble, just like we read articles about CBO slowing a year after this thread started in 2015 Screens % Inc Adm(m) Adm Inc Adm p/sc BO YM % Inc BO Yp/sc BO $M % Inc Tix Ave 2003 920 125 2004 1,514 64.6% 187 49.6% 2005 4,400 157 35,682 2,046 35.1% 465,000 250 33.7% $1.59 2006 4,700 6.8% 176 12.1% 37,447 2,620 28.1% 557,447 342 36.8% $1.94 2007 5,600 19.1% 195 10.8% 34,821 3,327 27.0% 594,107 438 28.1% $2.25 2008 5,700 1.8% 209 7.2% 36,667 4,342 30.5% 761,754 586 33.8% $2.80 2009 6,300 10.5% 263 25.8% 41,746 6,206 42.9% 985,079 873 49.0% $3.32 2010 7,800 23.8% 290 10.3% 37,179 10,172 63.9% 1,304,103 1,452 66.3% $5.01 2011 9,200 17.9% 370 27.6% 40,217 13,115 28.9% 1,425,543 1,929 32.9% $5.21 2012 14,000 52.2% 462 24.9% 33,000 17,073 30.2% 1,219,500 2,586 34.1% $5.60 2013 18,100 29.3% 612 32.5% 33,812 21,769 27.5% 1,202,707 3,400 31.5% $5.56 2014 23,600 30.4% 830 35.6% 35,169 29,639 36.2% 1,255,890 4,665 37.2% $5.62 2015 31,500 33.5% 1215 46.4% 38,571 44,000 48.5% 1,396,825 7,020 50.5% $5.78 2016 41,179 30.7% 1372 12.9% 33,318 45,710 3.9% 1,110,032 6,970 -0.7% $5.08 2017 50,776 23.3% 1620 18.1% 31,905 55,910 22.3% 1,101,111 8,200 17.6% $5.06 2018 60,079 18.3% 1765 9.0% 29,378 60,980 9.1% 1,014,997 9,000 9.8% $5.10 1265% 23% 1024% 22% 36,541 2880% 33% 1,028,150 3500% 36% 351% 05 to 18 Average^ 05 to 18 Average^ Average^ 05 to 18 Average^ Average^ 05 to 18 Average^ 05 to 18 1,225,634 10 to 18^ With Chinese economy slowing and BO finally at par with the economy and slowing with it, I still think it will well into the 2020's before CBO passes DomBO. Unless Domestic continues to be down 20% YoY
  4. POTUS 2020

    What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

    ITs been a while since I updated. Looks like the percentage of BO to GDP is leveling off at .069%. I doubt it gets up to SK levels. Its impressive that its BO/GDP is above all other established markets, China does have a good PPP allowing extra disposable income for movies. The economy has had explosive growth since the early 90's, BO didn't start to pop until the early 2000's. BO has now caught up to the economy. Additional BO growth will rely on GDP growth going forward which just hit a 25 year low at 6.5%. While the BO has slowed annually for the last 3 years, CNY remained to have big gains YoY with theater expansion at over 20% accounting for a few percent of the total BO annual increase. However, CNY 2019 was flat YoY even with 20% more seats. This could be a sign of its first negative year GDP (m) GDP Growth BO (m) BO Growth BO/GDP Urban % South Korea 1,400,000 1,600 0.114% 82 China 2018 13,000,000 6.5% 9,000 10% 0.069% 59 Australia 1,450,000 1,000 0.069% 89 Mexico 1,280,000 870 0.068% 79 China 2017 12,200,000 +9% 8,200 +18% 0.067% 58 China 2016 11,200,000 +4.5% 6,970 3% 0.062% 57 France 2,850,000 1,800 0.063% 79 China 2015 11,000,000 +5.8% 6,800 +42% 0.062% 56 Russia 1,326,000 796 0.060% 74 UK 3,050,000 1,700 0.056% 82 Dom 2016 20,000,000 11,000 0.055% 81 Dom 2018 22,200,000 11,990 0.054% Spain 1,400,000 700 0.050% 77 China 2014 10,400,000 +8.5% 4,800 +41% 0.046% 55 Japan 4,600,000 2,000 0.043% 92 Italy 2,150,000 800 0.037% 67 China 2013 9,600,000 +12.0% 3,400 +32% 0.035% 54 Brazil 2,350,000 800 0.034% 80 Germany 3,850,000 1,300 0.034% 69 China 2012 8,500,000 +12.0% 2,600 +34% 0.031% 53 China 2011 7,500,000 +15.0% 1,900 +33% 0.025% 52 Average 7,205,048 3,811 0.054% 70
  5. AQM VNM ans BBB all did 2.5 to 3x OW with high audience scores. The norm is 1.8-2x CNY is winding down. Alita has 2 clear weeks then CM opens.
  6. So are SJW's triggered that a mexican is playing a japanese character? never heard the end of it with Scarlett playing in GitS. I dont see the post on page 32 either
  7. i concur PS at 4.08. Should increase roughly (douban rating can affect this) S 25% 5.1m S 25% 6.4 M 35% 8.6 T 40% 12 W 40% 16.9 Th 75% 29.5m Final PS Average PSm 3.5. Good/bad Maoyan rating can boost it to 4 or drop it to 3 OD 103m Fri Multi average is 3.3. Again rating can drop it under 3 or well over 4 OW 340m/$50.3m If its poorly received all 3 factors can be affected by 10% or more. PS= 25 PSm =3 FriM= 3 and its just 225m/$33m or the opposite like BBee where it was looking low $40s OW but a good rating pushed the PSm to 4 and the FriM to 3.67 and $59m OW
  8. Player sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i78I66NDLmJhU_zRwVdH1UMT75DgqPRKY2IDMedCmDE/edit?usp=sharing @AndyLL could you update the standings for 2019, Thank You
  9. I concur. I said 350 to 450 because the PSm could be anywhere. Evening hours should be a lot stronger than Tues or Wed. The kids are pumping up the matinees as usual but the workers will be out this evening in droves
  10. Alita (8 days out) Midnight - 432k OD - 2.48m (43.35%) (23939 shows) Sat - 1.08m Sun - 590k another good increase. a couple more days like this and PS will target 30m+ and a $50-60m OW. more is always possible
  11. PS coming to a halt at 71m at 3am up 121%. Wed PS were 32m
  12. 60m yuan- Thursday PS (going over 65m at 2am) Y405m/$60m- Thursday BO edit- PS heading over 70m, up 120+%😲 420m at just 6x. Tues PSm was 6.65 5x to 6.5x =350-450m just dont know at this point, its a wild card it will drop on Friday see chart above
  13. After posting, the quote box is still populated with my post. If i refresh the page im asked if im sure i want to refresh because i have something pending to be sent. If i hit ok it sends the dp. I click on previous page then go back to original page to prevent dp. Just dont refresh page after posting. PS will be close to a 100% increase at 60m tonight. 400m is possible. $60m on day 10, a work day! Some schools are still out next week. Dailies should remain strong
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