XXR vs XXR
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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR
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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:
That's a bit optimistic. I'm expecting a finish between 925-950M
It's not really that optimistic though. $90 million next week is a 55% drop from this week. Then I'm modeling 35% drops (roughly) every proceeding week, which would be normal for an after holidays stabilization in January. -
TFA is still looking good for $1 billion.
Jan 4 - 10 = $90 million
Jan 11 - 18 = $70 million (including MLK Monday)
Jan 19 - 24 = $40 million
Jan 25 - 31 = $25 million
We should be at no less than $965 million by the end of January.-
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3 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:
it's just me or the 5 wave looks already as the worst movie of year
It gives me a Divergent vibe. Not good lol. -
Just now, bladels said:
So $100m is dead, right?
Yes, $90-$93 million is the target.
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5 minutes ago, Aristis said:
In which countries are holidays next week? I know there are in Germany an Japan, I think.
I don't even know it from US.
Holidays are over in the US until the 18th, which is Martin Luther King Day (Monday). -
11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
That was the only day in the last 10 that TFA SLIGHTLY outperformed Avatar (difference of 1.8%) then had a much better New Year's (difference of 21.2%). Clearly this was inevitable & TFA is performing at a much higher level.
True, but my point is outliers happen that don't follow the trend. I say today will come in at least $2 million higher than yesterday, so the increase will be at least 5.8%
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Just now, GiantCALBears said:
Why should this have a better hold than Avatar when it's obvious the declines have already been diverging? 5% makes no sense.
Apply that question to it's NYE hold. Things happen.-
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3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Why would 5-10% be tops? Clearly 1-2% is the upper limit unless it has a truly amazing day.
Again, it was a question about what would be the biggest increase we could see. I don't know why a 5% increase would be so implausible but a 2% wouldn't? That's like a 100,000 ticket difference. -
4 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Who says it is going to increase period today? Avatar only bumped 2% on its January 2. You should be happy if it stays flat.
Hence the question lol-
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Any chance we get a 10% increase today or is 5% going to be about tops?
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5 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Probably less than that.
I might have been a bit optimistic, should have said $80-$90 million for Sat/Sun. Either way, worldwide should be at least $200 million for the weekend worldwide. -
1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:
do we have a daily list of total OS? Mojo doesn't have one, only the weekend stats and total gross to that point.
I don't think so. Most OS countries don't have a composite index that websites like BOM will pull from. You would have to look at the daily totals posted in the international forums and get it from that. That's why BOM only updates individual country numbers every weekend even though it keeps a running total of the OS gross day to day. -
31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Didn't it make 25m yesterday, why would it jump up 15m?
It made $27 million on Christmas day and $136 million for that weekend. Holiday's drop a lot more OS compared to the US. It's going to make $90-$100 million Sat/Sun OS. Keep in mind that's still without China.-
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11 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
I have no idea about a few of those end result predictions as I am for the moment not following a lot of OS countries.
Out of curiousity: did you discuss those numbers in the International Forum? Do they agree, if you did?
China = wholeheartedly agree (and the last time I chescked our China mod wrote that number too)
I haven't asked in any of the international forums, but I've been following them a bit. Some are more optimistic, some less. I know some are saying $200 million in the UK and $100 million in Australia, France and Germany. We shall see though
I'm still hoping for Jurassic World numbers in China ($228 million).-
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Just now, terrestrial said:
The U.K. leads overseas with $133.5 million, one of the best showings of all time, followed by Germany ($73.9 million), France ($61.4 million), Australia ($47.1 million), Japan ($46.1 million), Spain ($24.7 million), Italy ($23.3 million) and Mexico (23.1 million). It's not seeing the same big numbers in some parts of Asia, such as South Korea ($21.8 million). However, Force Awakens is counting on being a huge player in China, where it rolls out Jan. 9.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-rings-851635?utm_source=twitter
Here are my conservative predictions for the final totals in these countries.
UK - $180 million
Germany - $105 millionFrance - $90 million
Australia - $70 million
Japan - $90 million
Spain - $35 million
Italy - $32 million
Mexico - $30 million
South Korea - $28 million
China - WHO KNOWS!! $150 million let's sat
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13 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
We had JW do $650m this summer w/ a much smaller built in fanbase, I'll admit my own predictions for both were way too conservative (pre presales) but I ended up being much closer on TFA. & I try to under predict BO numbers for my own personal satisfaction of having them over deliver.
I wasn't even close on JW or TFA with my beginning of the year predictions. I had Age of Ultron being the biggest film of the year at $575 million. TFA second at $515 million and JW at $380 million. Now I wondering if Independence Day: Resurgence is gonna blow the doors off (nothing like TFA or JW, but like $450 million or something).-
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So Disney is saying the cume is now $686.4 million, meaning Friday did $34.4 million. I think today comes in at $35.8 million and Sunday comes in at $23.2 million (I don't see Sunday being lower than NYE). That puts us at $745.4 million. With OS we will be at about $1.53 billion.
Next week will be interesting. It's daily totals will be much closer to Avatar's. I'm thinking $35 million Mon-Thurs and $60 million for the weekend. -
3 minutes ago, tokila said:
its only 40-45 million about JW's 3rd weekend, this is a serious issue.......
or not.
That said the 1 billion dream is going to relying on TFA finding a point where its drops stabilize soon. A 40% drop next weekend and 25030% drop (MLK) the next should be enough to keep it on a path to 1 bil.
Let's extrapolate forward a bit....
$745 million through January 3rd
Jan 4th - 10th = $95 million
Jan 11th - 17th = $60 million
Jan 18th - 24th = $50 million
Jan 25th - 31st = $35 million
So we should be at $985 million by February 1st. I still think $1 billion is locked but the upcoming week, the first non-holiday week, will let us know for sure.
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23 minutes ago, Rth said:
TFA 34.2,DH 11.2,H8 6.2,SIS 4.7,ALVIN 4.3,JOY 3.9,TBS 3.3,CONS 3,PB 2.6
$34.2 million is lower than I had hoped. Looks like TFA will only beat Avatar by $25 million this weekend
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2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Common theme in this thread: CALM DOWN GUYS ITS A FANTABULOUS NUMBER...
& that's correct. Still a shame it couldn't get over $100m barrier for a mind blowing 3rd weekend in a row. Would've had a nice ring to it.
You want a dose of force lightning don't you Cal? DON'T YOOUUU!!! You're crushing my dreams!!!
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1 hour ago, The Good Olive said:
Presales is just so-so, Only IMAX are selling good,...
Can't see it make more than $200M.
$200 million would be great! I just want it to do better than Jurassic World ($228 million I believe).-
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9 minutes ago, kswiston said:
Avatar had much better Sunday holds in its first two weekends, and even Avatar was down almost 33% in its third Sunday (which was the lowest drop by almost 10% in the Top 12 that year). I don't really see Star Wars doing much better than a 40% drop on Sunday.
Well the drop I gave it was bigger than the drop Avatar had, though not quite 40% (34%). -
Even at $35 million (which I think will turn out to be a bit low), we're still on target for right at $100 million I believe. I think Sunday's hold will be a bit stronger than historical holds. It's first Sunday was historically strong, as was NYE. I'm thinking this goes 36-39-26 for $101 million. My derby prediction was a little over $98 million so I'm feeling pretty good about it so far
Unfortunately, Hateful 8 is killing me this weekend
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3 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:
35m.
edit: as usual, DHD's numbers are all over the place.
If you use their numbers, they're expecting something like a 22-23m Sunday, in which case there's no chance in hell it'll pass AVATAR by Monday.
They can't even get the "day of" numbers right, much less extrapolate the weekend down to the hundred thousand range lolol
If they're saying $35 million right now, it'll probably come in at $37 million.-
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Weekend Actuals: The Force Awakens - 90.2M !!!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
About the same. TFA is already up $20 million on Avatar in January after this weekend. This coming week TFA will do a little better during the week and have a little better weekend. After that Avatar should start outpacing it in daily totals. Avatar did $312 million in January, my model for TFA is $310 million including this weekend.