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XXR vs XXR

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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, CoolK said:

    if this makes 1bn....apart from avatar sequels....nothing will be in sniffing distance of this cume...

    i doubt even other SW sequels will make this much DOM 


    I don't see any movie in the next 5 years getting within $200 million of this EXCEPT perhaps Avatar 2 do to the hype after the first one (despite what is said online, I know tons of people who loved that movie and are thrilled for the sequel). The other Avatar sequels won't get as high due to the pent up demand wearing off. The remaining Star Wars movies except Rogue One look to be coming out in May, so that eliminates them right there. 

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, The Panda Menace said:

     

    On an off-note, 2017 looks a lot more fun blockbuster wise than 2016

     

    The Dark Tower

    LEGO Batman

    Beauty and the Beast

    Skull Island

    Ghost in the Shell

    Guardians of the Galaxy 2

    Star Wars Episode 8

    Kingsman 2

    Wonder Woman

    Uncharted

    War of the Planet of the Apes

    New Nolan Movie

    Pirates 5 (with competent directors)

    Spider-Man Done Right?

    New Alien? 

    Coco 

    Ready Player One

    Avatar 2

     

    All of those look like really fun blockbusters, and I'm sure a few I didn't mention will turn out good (and some of those will turn out bad)

     

    Then again, I though 2015 looked a lot more fun than 2014, and 2014 turned out to be (overall) a much better year than 2015.


    I see a lot of flops on that list. 3 true blockbusters and a bunch of sub $300 million films (and $200 and $100).

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

    To all those doubting $900M+, here's the deal:

     

    The 2nd Week-end of the latest big blockbusters, Jurassic World and Avengers (1st one), had their second week-ends = ~15.6% of their total gross

     

    (In fact, no movie with a second week-end greater than 60 M had a total gross of more than 20% of their second week-end)

     

    So, applying those numbers to Star Wars we get

     

    $153,522,000 / 0.156

    = $984,115,384

     

    And that's assuming Star Wars follows Jurassic World and Avengers. It's much more hyped up than them, at least I think, but that's for another day...

     

    source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=2&p=.htm

     

    Let's calculate Star Wars's total with Avatar's second week-end-to-total ratio, for fun.

     

    153,522,000 / 0.101

    = 1,520,019,802

     

    Avatar is ridiculous.

     

     


    $984 million would be disappointing for the simple fact that it would be less than 2% from $1 billion :D

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, tokila said:

    So how strong is TFA looking today? I know we have the "estimate" but that is pretty much an educated guess. Any anecdotes on crowds and sellouts?


    I have no inside numbers but I checked all the screenings at the reserved seating theatre I go to. It's about 70% sold out on the 4 showings in the next 2 hours. Not a lot to go on but it's something. 

    • Like 2

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

     

    $110m added by the end of next Sunday .... $665m

    $55m added through the following weekend ... $720m

    $30m added the next week ......................... $750m

     

    OK, I'm now convinced, it will pass Avatar. :)


    $110 million by the end of next Sunday??? How is that even possible? It did almost $300 million in the last 7 days! It's not going to drop 65% lol

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

     

    I've been watching box office returns since 1975 and it's what I think. So shoot me. :)


    But your statement doesn't make any sense seeing the current numbers. It's done $550 million in 10 days, but you don't think it will get $210 million more? Even if the next 7 days are half of the last 7 it's still gonna be at $720 million in 17 days. 

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

     

    Germany = not sure, big minus percentages, but as partly cinemas were closed... very difficult to say for now, ask in the Germany/Austria thread


    I don't know a lot about overseas markets I just tried to use other big movies as references and such. I may have been optimistic overall by $100 million or so total. Still, $900 million from just those markets would be great. 

    • Like 2

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

    avatar_star_wars_the_force_awakens.png


    Let's see, Australia should be good for right around $100 million. Brazil will probably end up about $40 million. Who knows about China, could be $150 million to $300 million but for now lets say $200 million. France might hit $100 million, Germany about $110 million. Italy should get to $40 million. Japan is a slow burn but I wouldn't put it above $80 million at this point. Russia is gonna be a big fall, $40 million max. South Korea will be huge as well, another $40 million location. Spain should get to $50 million. The UK is on track for $200 million which would be great. 

    So of these locations, I'm thinking the final tally will be about $1 billion compared to Avatar's $1.44 billion.

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

    You know...I wonder....is there a chance TFA could top Gone with the Wind's adjusted BO gross? I think there's a 0.01% chance it might happen. Now that would be truly and fantastically insane.

     

    But I'm satisfied with it beating Avatar's adjusted gross.


    Is there a % less than zero? lol

    It would need to ADD Avatar's adjusted total and throw in another $300 million to do that ^_^

    • Like 2

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

    I keep saying TFA was going to hit the breaks. Thought it would be around $400m, now I guess it's $550m, LOL.

     

    Still not convinced it will catch Avatar DOM. 


    Really? Even if it dives 50% from the past week (which it won't due to the holidays), it will be at $700 million by next Sunday. 

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

     

    I get what you're saying -- and I agree to an extent -- but I don't think that means massive falls. A lot of movies increase from their previous week during the week between X-Mas and New Years. TFA won't do that, I'm pretty dang sure, haha. But it won't tumble 40% either. I think the worst conceivable declines are about 30% from last week's weekdays, so $100M for the Mon-Thurs portion of the week. Just a guess, but that's where I see the floor. I can imagine falls more like 15-20% though, which would be incredible at this level. You are right, though, if it were a smaller movie it could be flat rather than fall.


     I hope you're right good sir, I just don't want to get my hopes up and then it comes in lower and feel let down. Besides, at those numbers I mentioned it would still make over $200 million in 7 days lolol

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

     

    Jurassic World's first Monday is 25m.  Assuming Sunday is 50m, I don't think Monday is dropping 50% to 25m.


    I hope your numbers are right but I think this Monday will be when we start to see the law of large numbers start taking effect. Eventually you run out of eyes to keep trends going and the drops will be harsher than a movie half it's size. 

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