corngrower87
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Posts posted by corngrower87
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If anyone is still keeping track, it looks like Top Gun Maverick passed Avatar 2 in daily’s yesterday…
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I saw Cocaine Bear. Thought it was an enjoyable enough movie. The theater was probably about half full and the rest of the audience seemed to enjoy it as well.
The numbers so far are looking good for the type of movie it is.
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4 hours ago, GOGODanca said:
So with Titanic only being a 2 week release, will those 3D screens/showtimes go back to Avatar 2 or will they go to Ant Man?
My local AMC is giving Cocaine Bear Titanic’s screens. I don’t know how widespread that is though…
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10 hours ago, Dale Cooper said:
Feeling the Titanic love here is a bit excessive. It's great (the best film to gross more than ROTK), but far from Cameron's best.
Titanic, in terms of its performance and phenomenon relative to its time, is the movie that every other film wishes it could. It is also a perfect example of why films should be seen in the cinema. I’ve probably seen it 100 times, but there is still something powerful and unique about seeing it in theaters. It is the absolute zenith of what cinema can and should be…
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7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
I wonder how it will hold against ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA. Is $5M possible for this weekend?
I doubt it with the loss of what PLF showings it has left. But, then again it wouldn’t be the first time this film surprised me…
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46 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
I want to go and see it but only in imax. One show a night at 7:30 so I won’t even get home until midnight. Then Ant-Man kicks it out.
so, I think showtimes on the biggest screens is probably a factor in people maybe not showing up. Considering it’s only in 3D (at least in the U.K.) there’s no chance I’m risking seeing it at an earlier time with a potentially half-dim bulb.
2D and I’d have seen it earlier in the day in a different screen if I had to. But as it’s only 3D it’s imax or bust for me.
There are only a couple of Regal cinemas around me that have regular 2D showtimes. Otherwise its all 3D. I think it’s probably like that everywhere…
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So this rerelease talk got me thinking: Does anyone know if there is a place to find the box office data for films that were rereleased during the 2020 Covid shutdowns? I’d be interested in seeing what films like Back to the Future, Empire Strikes Back, Goonies, and some of the other childhood classics that played during that time (that I went to see) actually made. Most places you look, their grosses are the exact same they were beforehand…
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I personally think it’s typical deadline lowballing, but we’ll see. It will definitely be interesting to see Avatar’s hold. I don’t know about other places, but it’s PLF showtimes we’re hit HARD by both Titanic and Magic Mike…
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43 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:
Titanic is unlikely to win -- America has different tastes than Bangkok 😛
I don’t know, all the ladies around here you ask which film they’d rather see this weekend, it’s Titanic. I know it’s anecdotal, but none of my wife’s friends are interested in Magic Mike…
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2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:
it lost its dolby screens from yesterday 5pm onwards but will keep its imax and other plfs
Locally, it lost its AMC PRIME screens and Cinemark XD screens completely. At B&B it is down to only two shows on one if it’s Grand Screens: 12:30 and 10pm.
I don’t know how widespread this is, but there is some evidence to suggest that it is losing considerably more than just the Dolby Screens.
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18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
How come the week-to-week hold on Monday is weaker than already deflated Sunday? I was expecting some softer than usual Monday drop.
My guess: people had to go to work. Plus no school holidays.
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1 hour ago, stripe said:
Possible gross for Avatar2 8th weekend:
10% drop - 14.2M
20% drop - 12.5M
30% drop - 11M
It faces more competition, so 11-12M?
Plus it loses at least all of the Dolby screens to knock at the cabin due contacts with Universal. I wouldn’t be surprised if it also loses at least some of the showtimes from Cinemark’s XD and anB & B grand screens as well. It’s possible the loss of this many PLF screens will have a bigger impact than a lot are anticipating.
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That was about the poorest officiated game I’ve ever seen. 1) A ref at that level in that position should know not to wind the clock after an incomplete pass. 2) The one blowing the play dead should’ve kept coming in to stop the play until the play actually stops. 3) There was a missed block in the back on that last run back. 4) Some of those holds in the first half were questionable at best.
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10 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:
1/24 6,471,312 604,880,771 -52.59% 1/27 16,200,000 621,080,771 -19.54% 1/31 4,700,000 625,780,771 -27.37% 2/03 12,400,000 638,180,771 -23.46% 2/07 3,500,000 641,680,771 -25.53% 2/10 9,000,000 650,680,771 -27.42% Titanic Rerelease2/14 2,500,000 653,180,771 -28.57% Valentine's Day 2/17 5,500,000 658,680,771 -38.89% Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd2/21 2,325,000 661,005,771 -7.00% President's Day 2/24 2,700,000 663,705,771 -50.91% 2/28 1,000,000 664,705,771 -56.99% TOTAL 12,000,000 676,705,771 Made some edits to the chart this week, looks like stronger weekends than I previously expected, but also slightly weaker weekdays, still looking at a range of 665-685m final, although that could potentially change that if the next 2 weeks hold as well as this one
I think it will have a sharper drop next week than what you have penciled in just because it’s losing a decent amount of PLFs.
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1 hour ago, M37 said:
Honestly haven’t run the math in a bit, but prob still in ~$670M range. Loss of PLFs and Ant-Man are going to knock it down pretty hard IMO, but it’s got 2 weeks of free rein left before then to add to total
It will be interesting to see how much Knock at the Cabin affects it next weekend. While it isn’t necessarily something that will appeal to the same audience, it will be taking all of the Dolby Cinemas (per contract with universal) and I bet it eats into some of the other non IMAX PLFs (Cinemark XD, B & B Grand Screen, etc. ) as well. I could see it dropping upwards of 35-40% next weekend just due to that factor alone…
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43 minutes ago, M37 said:
Other than Otto, highest is +6%, which is all that abnormal, especially for a light release weekend (limited Thursday previews). Last week there were three double digit increases in top 6 - find me a comparable example and we’ll talk
Other than rare instances of Wednesdays being muted for some reason, movies generally don’t increase on Thursday. If you you go the weak new release route, the last one that jumps out to me is the weekend starting October 28. The only new release that made the top 10 was Pray for the Devil. Yet on the 27th, every movie fell. There has to be some kind of an outside influence because the general rule is that movies tend to decrease on Thursday. Now we’ve had two in a row where films have, for the most part increased on Thursday. I’m interested in knowing why…
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2 hours ago, M37 said:
Otto +8% for Thursday, Missing +6%, even Whitney +1% despite likely losing some shows
Looks like we're going to see some really good holds this weekend, thanks in large part to the absence of new releases; and its a sign of a (getting) healthier market that holdovers get a 2nd/3rd/4th bite at the apple rather than people just finding something else to do
So what’s the reason for the Thursday increases this week? No popcorn day this week…
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52 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
There's no special occasion to prop it up this time, so I'd argue the forecast for this weekend is looking a lot better.
Unless people were shifting their viewings to Thursday instead of Sunday due to the playoff games… 🤷🏻♂️
And playing devil’s advocate, are we even sure national popcorn day even has an effect? The last time January 19th fell on a Thursday was 2017 and the box office actually fell that day, with the exception of Hidden Figures which had a slight 50k bump. The point of my original post is that something else probably lead to the boost since if the box office as a whole had a slight bump again. Nothing ever happens in a vacuum…
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6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Damn, that's nearly flat from Wednesday for Avatar 2. This is a really good sign for the weekend, right?
It had an increase from Wednesday to Thursday last week as well and that lead to a lower weekend than many were forecasting. At the time, many were attributing it to national popcorn day. We’ll have to wait and see where this goes.
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31 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
I'd probably expect a 15M+ weekend with a 1.3M Thursday. Last weekend was 11.5 times Thursday number (if you ignore the impact of Popcorn day). Also there are no NFL playoffs this Saturday..that should result in even bigger Saturday bump this week.
10 minutes ago, druv10 said:Sunday hold will be worse than this week since AFC/NFC Championship games are this week
Exactly, with the hype of the two games I wouldn’t be surprised if Saturday is huge and then Sunday afternoon falls off a cliff. Winner goes to the Super Bowl. We’re to the point where the stakes themselves will draw a large number of viewers.
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So the same multi for the weekend would put Avatar in the neighborhood of $14.5m (roughly a 28% drop.)
Next week will probably see sub $1m dailies and probably a bit of a harsher drop on the weekend (2/3-2/5) due to PLFs starting to erode due to Knock at the Cabin. I’m guessing the drop will be closer to 40% that weekend.
Unless it has the late legs of TGM, I think $700m is out of reach. With March as packed as it is, I doubt it gets a significant number of PLFs back to make such a run.
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TGM shaved between $4.75 and $4.8 million off of Avatar’s lead. The weekdays are looking to shave at least another $1 million each day this week. At this point, I simply don’t see it getting to $700 million, let alone catching TGM.
Avatar’s run has been great, far better than I thought it would be back in December.
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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:
I mean I think the chance has to still be considered when it still has a substantial lead over it (albeit a 5m smaller equivalent weekend). But if late legs are exceptional, the lead it still has may be just enough. Just unlikely now.
And don’t forget it will shave a few million more off that lead today alone as the equivalent Monday in TGM’s run was a holiday (July 4th).
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50 minutes ago, M37 said:
The number of movies I've seen in theaters is easily in the hundreds, and I've only walked out of a like 1 or 2 ... they certainly weren't all good! I can probably tell you more about the bad ones than some that were just OK. Yet I've given up on countless movies after 20-60 minutes at home, because they just weren't doing it for me
I know one of the big sells of streaming is the convenience, but when you make it too easy for people to consume, it makes the content more disposable, less memorable. Even dropping all episodes at once and allowing binge watching has a dampening effect, rather than making viewers have to wait a week and becoming appointment TV (like Disney and HBO still do), with then people discussing it between episodes
Agreed. If I’m just watching a movie on tv/streaming for the first time and I get bored, I just change it to something else. I have never walked out of a movie at the theater due to the quality of the film. If I’ve made the commitment to drive 50+ miles to see it, I’m sticking with it until it’s over.
Full disclosure: I did leave a movie early one time, but it was due to a family emergency and not the film. I made a second trip to the cinema to finish that film…
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Weekend Thread - 3/10-12 | Weekend Estimates: Scream VI 44.5 (franchise best!), Creed III 27.2, LXV 12.3 #AintManIII 7, Cocaine Bear I 6.2
in Numbers and Data
Posted
The last two Halloween movies were Telekom Peacock day and date with theaters. I’m not talking about any kind of PVOD, any Peacock subscriber could watch them. I guarantee you this cut quite a bit off of the ceiling for Kills, and the opening for Ends. Ends’ BO would’ve gone to hell regardless after that first weekend just because of how divisive it is.