corngrower87
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Posts posted by corngrower87
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7 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
We're done with that.
Come on, we need something to entertain us. This college football game sure isn’t going to do it.
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23 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
will ant-man keep the imaxes after it ow? where will they go after ant-man ow and before shazam?
seems like shazam wont come out in imax, so one more week if it regains them, but creed 3 will
I would assume Ant Man would keep them since it’s the newer release and will probably sell more tickets. Although I could see some theaters that have multiple PLF screens splitting them between the two. One of my local AMCs has four PLF screens. Until last Friday, they were all showing Avatar. Now one of them is showing Megan. It will be interesting to see if any of the other new releases between now and Ant Man steel some of the PLF screens away…
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I’m guessing the higher than expected number today will lead to a slightly sharper drop tomorrow due to it being a normal weekday. Will it lead to more meltdowns? Time will tell.
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9 minutes ago, lilmac said:
“Sources have told Variety that “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point was set at roughly $1.4 billion, a figure the movie has already crossed”
@Barnack - can we backtrack that into a total production cost number. $700m perhaps.
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/james-cameron-avatar-2-turn-profit-box-office-1235480925/
Without knowing the specific share agreement for the first couple of weeks that Disney had with exhibitors, I’d say that would be a good guess.
$700 million sounds like an incredible number for a production budget until you account for the extended development cost of the film as well as the technology innovation costs, in addition to the actual production and marketing costs.
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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Would not matter that much. It could be a catalyst to stoke dormant JC fans. Otherwise its not a factor like a 100m opener.
You do realize I’m was joking right…?
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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Dont forget Market has way fewer releases compared to summer. TGM did face Minions and Thor beyond its 4th weekend. Here I am not convinced we will see another 30m opener before Ant-Man and that is 5 weeks away.
Don’t forget the potentially epic upcoming Cameron vs Cameron matchup when Titanic gets its wide rerelease just ahead of Valentine’s Day…
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7 minutes ago, MikeQ said:
Confidently predicting that a film will outdo "X" film because it has matched or somewhat exceeded "X" film's current weekend and therefore will outdo it from this point in the run onwards, is not possible when:
1. "X" film had exceptional late legs of its own.
Check out TGM's late legs - they are really sexy:
That's 20% drops or better for 8 weekends in a row.
2. And it opened in the summer, benefiting from strong summer weekdays (with kids out of school and many folks off work).
Way of Water will, naturally, lose ground during the weekdays (starting tomorrow, in fact). That's not a slight against Way of Water - but a natural occurrence due to the different times of year and advantages of opening during the summer. There is a reason why the list of biggest box office months ever are predominated by June and July:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=all&ref_=bo_csm_ac
Studios love to lap up those summer weekdays.
Therefore, it's not a foregone conclusion that Way of Water can match TGM's domestic gross. It certainly can, and its prospects are looking better with the exceptionally strong hold this weekend. But for the reasons above, its too simplistic to say, "it has matched/exceeded this weekend and therefore it will go on to exceed its total gross".
Not trying to be a Grumpy Gus - just put things in perspective.
Peace,
Mike
Plus, let’s not forget the Fourth of July provided TGM with a solid boost. We’re not to that point in A2s release life to know where it will be in comparison at that point either.
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35 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:
And yet for all that, it legged better from its OD than Halloween Ends
This tends to happen when you release a “final chapter” that probably 3/4 of the fan base hates, plus release it in Peacock day and date…
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22 minutes ago, M37 said:
The viewership of two standalone regular seasons games - one even being a defacto playoff game - is about half of the 30M the two Sat WC games got last year (there’s a reason the NFL stuck the Titans-Jags on Saturday rather than Sun night)
Yeah, there’s some audience loss, but it’s like 20/80 for Sat/Sun rather than closer to 50/50, the latter helps to flatten the curve from Fri-Sun
The KC v. Raiders game will have much larger implications for the first round bye. The way the general public rallied around Hamlin after the events of Monday night may lead to more interest in this game than a typical standalone game since the outcome directly affects his team.
Again, not saying it would be a big impact, but it’s definitely going to be a little more than normal.
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3 minutes ago, M37 said:
Now I fully expect these two titles to diverge on Saturday, as Passengers looks to have been hit especially hard by NFL Playoffs (and possibly Hidden Figures), and Avatwo won't be. But worth noting that the only titles to get better than +50% on this Sat in 2017 were Sing (+75), Moana (+70) and Rogue One (+57). Again, I think the NFL playoff factor - or more accurately, lack of them - will push those Saturday jump higher overall (followed by bigger Sunday drops), but in the COVID* last year the non-animated films were in the +55-65 range, except for NWH at +79. (would also presume this is a big travel day for people returning to normal routine, which may cut into potential)
While there isnt NFL Playoff action today, don’t forget there are two NFL games that have massive playoff implications that will be played this afternoon. Not saying that will have a huge impact, but saying that the NFL games won’t have any impact at all won’t be the case either…
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2 hours ago, mike&night said:
Not bad, still in the $40-47M weekend realm. Hopefully it manages to overperform and stay as close to $50M as possible.
I watched M3GAN yesterday and thought it was quite generic. Bland, extremely PG-13, everything happens off-screen and not as funny as people are making it out to be? Like I’m not sure why people are LOLing in the theater. Also not as camp as I expected, seemed to take itself more seriously than I expected. But M3gan as a villain has a lot of potential, hopefully the sequel is rated R.
I’ve read that Blumhouse filmed all the gore, but it was all trimmed to attain a PG-13. I have fingers crossed for a blu-ray/4K release that has the kills restored.
With that said, I haven’t seen it yet. I plan on it either tonight or tomorrow, weather pending…
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17 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
oh damn..I thought all the games on final week happen on Sunday
The NFL flexed these games to Saturday after the games finished up on Sunday. The big draw about the Chiefs game is that it will probably determine who gets the #1 seed in the AFC now that the NFL decided not to make up the Bills v. Bengals game from Monday night.
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2 hours ago, upriser7 said:
there also won't be any College Football or NFL games this Saturday which should give some boost....this will infact be the first Saturday since start of September without any NFL or College Football games
I hate to break it to you, but there will be two NFL games this Saturday. Chiefs v. Raiders and Titans v. Jaguars…
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Since Wednesdays normally see a drop, this probably will to. How much will depend on how many people want to go see it on the day it claims the crown.
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I can't speak for how much of a demand the college football bowl games will have. Around here, they aren't getting a lot of attention. That is probably because none of the local teams made a decent bowl game.
I think TFA will beat American Sniper's January weekend record from last year. I also don't think it will have a problem beating Avatar's New Year's day record. I could be wrong, especially on the weekend side.
I see something in the neighborhood of $23 million today. There are enough people I know that are going to see Star Wars that have no interest in the football games that I can't see it dropping a lot below that.
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2 hours ago, hasanahmad said:
-11% is impressive considering 7% of the nation is under flood waters.
Especially when the flooding is at historic levels, beating the record crests from The Great Flood of '93. I'm not saying the weather is affecting the box office one way or the other. I'm just saying this isn't your average flooding.
Also, solid number for a second Tuesday.
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33 is a great number and a strong hold. It will be interesting to see how well the holds will be for the remaining weekdays. If I were to guess, the rest of the week will be fairly solid and we'll be looking at a number somewhere around $650 million before we go into the weekend.
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Even if Sunday comes in less than estimated this was still a huge weekend for Star Wars. It isn't every movie that can say it has the all time weekend record, and depending on actuals, a second in or near the top 10 weekends of all time.
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1. Rogue One $520 million
2. Finding Dory $500 million
3. Batman V Superman $475 million
4. Captain America $380 million
5.X-Men $350 million
6. Independence Day $325 million
7. Fantastic Beasts $275 million
8. Alice 2 $250 milion
9. Jungle Book $225 million
10. Kung Fu Panda $180 million
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45 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
Here's a novel idea....how about just enjoy this for what it is? That being a run that hasn't been seen...EVER. No film has ever opened this high and sustained these kinds of holds ten days into their run. Adjusting, inflation, tickets sold, dividing population by dollars and everything else you guys are doing is just smoke filled coffee house crap. There are way way way too many variables to take into consideration when trying to figure out adjusted and everything else. What we do know is that SW is going to be the domestic champ after about 17 days. We also know that it's taking a real run at a billion. We also know that it will come relatively close to the WW crown, but probably fall a bit short.
Can't you guys just enjoy this without trying to tarnish it in some way?
Agreed. I have enjoyed this just as I enjoyed Avatar's run, and Jurasic World's, and the Avenger's. Whether you like each of the movies or not, we ought to be glad that these movies are bringing people into the theater. Especially since movie attendance isn't what it used to be.
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3 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:
Its the 'why' that I don't agree with, not the fact that sales have declined.
FWIW I never said TFA wasnt impressive, it is immensely, but its not the total gross that impresses so much, its the speed its attained it.
Agreed. I know I remember following several movies' theatrical runs and the few that did hit $500 million, it seems like it took forever for them to get there.
BTW, this is my first post. I have enjoyed visiting the forums, and following the box office here for quite a while. Finally I decided to join.
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Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Plus don’t forget that TGM had a 4th of July weekend boost. We won’t be at the equivalent stage of Avatar’s calendar for another couple of weeks.