George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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1 hour ago, Aristis said:
Did they just make the $103,5M to € and and converted it to $ again?
It very much seems like it. It's either that or they took numbers that are completely off, but the latter doesn't sound as likely as them interpreting the 103 million number as the Euro-total, instead of realising that it already is the Dollar-total.
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Bibi & Tina already had 77k admissions in previews, more than double the amount part 2 had. It might actually have a decent chance to take the top spot next weekend.
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Yeah, I don't think that is the case. The 3D and IMAX shares so far make it virtually impossible for Episode VII to have come anywhere near the 100 million mark. I think Spizzer had shown some calculations for that recently.
The same is true for Avatar, which had an even higher 3D-share. It's attendance should be closer to 80 million than to 100.
Avatar only comes in at 100 million tickets sold if you take the average ticket-price of the year and divide the total made by this number. But Avatar wasn't anywhere near this average ticket-price, it was much more expensive than that.
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Deadline now lists some further Thursday numbers as well:
The Revenant 4 million
TFA 3.1 million
https://deadline.com/2016/01/ride-along-2-begins-to-zoom-in-thursday-previews-box-office-1201683644/
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On 12.1.2016 at 10:09 PM, Aristis said:
Should be the biggest re-release by far
Yes, that number is truly unreal. The 1979 re-release beats every single first-run between 1973 and 1989. The Rescuers does top it with 9.8 million admissions, but that includes re-releases. It was only when Pretty Woman made it past 10 million in 1990 that this streak ended.
If I'm not mistaken, Jungle Book holds the biggest, second biggest and fourth biggest re-release, not counting any movies that came prior to 1966, whose data isn't available.
It should go something like this:
Jungle Book 1979 9.1 million
Jungle Book 1987 5.43 million
Aristocats 1980 4.44 million
Jungle Book 1993 4.17 million
Robin Hood 1982 2.2 million
Star Wars SE 1997 2.19 million
The Rescuers 1984 1.54 million
Apart from Star Wars, the whole lists pretty amounts to "movies that Wolfgang Reitherman has directed"
Actually, there is one further exception, the French movie La Grande Vadrouille. It was first released in 1967 as "Drei Bruchpiloten in Paris", with about 500k admissions, and then again as "Die große Sause" in 1974, this time reaching another 3.3 million. This should put it 5th on the list of biggest re-releases.
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Real accounting didn't happen that far back, I think. That only started in the mid 80s.
I think it got mentioned somewhere on insidekino that those kind of numbers were rather common back in the days. "Die Trapp Familie" (which is what The Sound of Music is based on) had about 27 million admissions as well. "Grün ist die Heide" had 19, "Schwarzwaldmädel" 16 million. All of these are from the 50s. If you go back further, you even get 30-40 million admissions, if I remember it correctly.
You can actually find some of the re-relese data if you look through the yearly charts. 1971 for example gives you the numbers for Aristocats, split in four releases: 5.25 million (rough estimate) in 1971, 4.44 in 1980, 0.83 in 1988 and 0.78 in 1994, for a total of about 11.3 million.
For Jungle Book you get the following:
1968: 7.6 million (estimate)
1979: 9.1 million
1987: 5.47 million
1993: 4.17 million
2000: 1.04 million
total: 27.39 million
Other movies of that period, like Once Upon a Time in the West (13 million) or Trinity Is STILL My Name! (11.3 + ~1 = 12.3 million) either had none or only a small re-release, which makes Jungle Book's number not look that outrageous anymore.
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Shouldn't it need another tiny bump for that?
It was estimated at 7.05 million prior to the weekend. The current trend adds 550k, for a total of 7.60 million admissions. FJG2 stood at 7.637, probably 7.64 after the weekend is over, as it is still pulling in a few thousand every weekend.
It might take Monday to actually pass it, if weekday-actuals and a further bump for the weekend aren't happening. Still, you can pretty much count the hours until it will happen
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9 minutes ago, Lumos said:
Wow. So the highest grossing movie of all time will spend less weeks at #1 than Mockingly Part 2. ....did not see that coming.
Well, that kind of thing usually depends on the start of new movies anyway, not on the big movie.
When Spiderman utterly trounced the 3rd weekend record it still came in only in 2nd place, yet it would have been no.1 in 40 other weekends of the year. It just happened to run into the first weekend of Attack of the Clones.
With the kind of weekend The Revenant is having, pretty much every movie in its 4th week but Avatar wouldn't have been in first place for the weekend.
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Per Disney, Episode VII has moved past the 7 million mark after 21 days. Seeing how it needed 434k admissions after the weekend, its weekdays should at least be in the vicinity of what Avatar made during the same days (496k). Per Mark_G, at the end of Tuesday the movie was at 70% of what Avatar made in the Mon-Wed period.
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46 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Can you point me to those analysts?
Second hand information, it's what Mark_G from insidekino had mentioned on his forums prior to the start.
The other source would be a newspaper, but they don't really have any of this stuff on their website.
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2 hours ago, Elessar said:
Then you would be crazy. It's doing as good as Star Wars can do over here.
I don't think those expectations were all that unrealistic, it was shared by most of the analysts, and most in the industry apparently thought this would get to 10+ million admissions as well. So it's not like these hopes were just wishful thinking without any prediction that would back it up, on the contrary.
Yes, this movie doing better than any SW-movie ever has (edit: well, it might not reach TPM when you add the re-release, and the numbers for the original only consider West-Germany for obvious reasons, so that is a bit iffy as well) is a huge success, but it is hard to say that being slightly disappointed is being crazy, if models and predictions saw a better result, pre-sales were much bigger than ever before, and the opening weekend and the second weekend both come in quite a bit lower than early trends had expected.
Now, to be fair, the pre-sales may have thrown a bit of a wrench in any predictions, and the weekdays - especially for the second week - were fantastic (and record-breaking), but I don't think that is enough to consider bigger expectations than the ones that will be achieved as crazy, or anything close to that for that matter.
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4 minutes ago, ForcedForward said:
Basically TFA has already passed Avatar if you don't count re releases. I think the records should not count re releases, that's always bothered me, should be a separate record.
I disagree, a movie still has to garner interest to make money out of a re-release, simply releasing it again and again does absolutely nothing on its own. If you can actually get the theaters to show your movie again, and people show up, all the better for you. It's the same movie, and records are about the money a movie has made in theaters, as such, everything should count.
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It has the re-release in the list, but not the original start.
Maybe they didn't have the numbers for Titanic's opening weekend. That list is the top opening weekends after all, not the alltime chart, it's just that you can also sort these movies by their final gross. BOM only has French numbers going back to 2001, so the exact numbers for Titanic may not have been available to them. If that is the reason, it's obvious why Titanic wouldn't be on the list. Though it would seem a bit odd, considering that they have a few very old (and very minor) starts listed.
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4 hours ago, efialtes76 said:
Germany:
1.Titanic:€126,204,541
2.Avatar:€114,650,950
3.The Jungle Book:€98,750,000
4.The Lord of The Rings:The Fellowship of The Ring:€82,966,615
5.Harry Potter 1:€76,965,244
6.The Lord of The Rings:The Two Towers:€75,305,891
7.The Lord of The Rings:The Return of The King:€72,374,652
8.The Hobitt:An Unexpected Journey:€68,909,540
9.Skyfall:€65,762,240
10.Der Schu des Manitu:€65,131,251
Current:
Spectre:€62,970,350
TFA:€51,202,134
Oh, you edited it to Euro. I just wanted to comment on the Dollar-list you had posted earlier, more exactly on how funny the result for the Hobbit-movies were, with 1 and 2 being at pretty much the same amount of 88 million Dollars, with the third being nowhere in sight. Power of drastic changes in exchange-rates at work. Hobbit 2 and 3 were pretty much identical in terms of admissions and Euro, yet the Dollar-amounts are completely different due to the Euro tumbling down like crazy between the two movies.
I think it would actually be quite nice if both alltime lists, Euro and Dollar, would be mentioned here, makes it easier for reference.
I think Mark from insidekino had a tweet lately in which he mentioned that TFA had passed Spectre with now 64.7 million Euro. With the way those two are going, both should enter the top 10, with TFA probably heading for third.
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26 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Weather IMHO plays if it is a depressing looking one or too dangerous one.... can play IMHO for some days way more into said day's BO performance than some (usually never having lived in a region with such conditions?) might think.
We have this New Year Day foggy weather that dosn't even look inviting to go out with the dog, in my reagion is also black ice alarm and fou my state's capital (not country, I hope the terms right) they issued an IS terror/security alarm, with the main train station... evacuated. I am pretty sure todays numbers will (in my region) pretty bad for each of those reasons alone. Or people go to the cinema to forget for a while...
Hope you all have a nice start into the new year (and that it stays so)
Bad weather usually drives business in Germany though. It's the good weather you need to fear
Might be one of the reasons why German cinema has struggled a bit over the recent past. Hollywood throws out most of its big stuff in the summer-time, which is contrary to the movie-going ways of Germans, who prefer the winter, where your options to do other things are a bit limited. Nothing kills the market more efficiently (apart from a certain World Cup) than a big summer heatwave.
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9 minutes ago, Aristis said:
"Not sure if the 10 million admission mark is still in play" You're right, I thought the same later. LOTR 3 had 6,6mio admissions after the second week (SW 5,7mio) and made it to 10,4mio. If you use the same multipler for SW it gets 9mio. Maybe that should be the target and - like you said - it would be enough for €100mio, third highest grossing movie of all time.
On the other hand, LOTR 1 had a similar 5,7 million and made it to close to 12
That would be rather suprising legs though, I don't think that can be matched.
I completely forgot about the holidays next week though. I remembered that the 6th is a holiday in the South, but as Mark wrote on insidekino: about 80% of the country has the holidays run to that day, meaning Monday-Wednesday should see pretty good holds next week again.
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43 minutes ago, Aristis said:
€13,5mio midweek, slightly below my expectation. €15,3mio to get to €80mio. Seems to high for the weekend. But €75mio and $80mio by sunday are safe, right?
How high can it go in that list? Next week there are still holidays in several parts of the country. The biggest territories for moviegoing are in holidays (Nordrhein-Westfahlen, Bayern...). So a good next week I think. It should go over €100mio, so third place should happen I think. And above it could go to €110mio. (Mark G believes that 10mio admissions could happen and if the ticket price stays above 11€...
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Are there really only two $100mio movies in Germany? Bom says Titanic ($130mio) and Avatar ($162mio). A third movie in that row is needed
I think it should be somewhere between €74 and 76 million after the weekend. Not sure if the 10 million admission mark is still in play, seems a bit high at this point. Fack ju Göthe 2 had a bit more than 3 million admissions after the 2nd weekend, Minions 4 million, Spectre should get about 3 once it is done. Minions had the summer holiday though. If you use the 3 million the other two made, plus a little more because it should be coming from a slightly higher weekend, and 9 million admissions would sound about right. That should be enough to top €100 million as well.
It definately hurt that the peak of German cinema fell right into the worst period of the Euro. Between 2000 and 2003 the Euro was worth less than a Dollar. At the time of Avatar it was just a around the second highest peak it ever had, sitting around 1,43 to 1,44 for most of the run. Apply the exchange rate Avatar had to the Lord of the Rings movies or the first Harry Potter, and they all should have made it past the $100 million mark as well.
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15 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:
I actually watched the interview. He definitely did go there, and all I could think was that he just made a colossal PR misstep. Bad comparison to draw, George.
I don't really see it, it was a rather obvious joke about Hollywood and the studios. It's not like this is something entirely new, he made a similar joke about himself a few years ago, when he was trying his best to stay away from all the companies and the big movie-machine, only to turn into a head of a company himself. Maybe it wasn't the best way to word things by him, but the Variety article is pure clickbait that makes it sound like Lucas was somehow angry about things, which wasn't true at all. The interview makes that pretty clear actually.
He has always used some rather drastic words for things, even against friends or himself, but always in fun. Trying to twist these words into something serious, like Variety did, is rather odd.
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Hi, I was lurking here for the last few weeks and thought I'd chime in about this now. You can find that number in the insidekino.de forums, week 52.
It is 2.4-2.6 million for the whole week, meaning about 1.3 to 1.5 million for Monday-Wednesday, which would be a new record for weekdays.
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BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW
in International Box Office
Posted
Right now I'd say Episode VII finishes with 8.8-8.9 million. We don't have the weekday numbers yet, but its weekends are similar to the same weekends for Spectre, with the difference being that Spectre gets a boost in the following weeks due to the holidays, making that movie not a good comparison anymore. Fack ju Göhte 2 meanwhile managed less than 300k after coming off an 120k weekend (which wasn't the 7th like in this case, but the 8th). With TFA being at 8.55 or so after this weekend, it would need to perform significantly better than that to reach 9 million admissions.
Are you sure about 175k being a hard drop for Alvin compared to part 3?
The trend says it is up significantly from the last one (140k) and even ahead of the first (169k).