IronJimbo
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Posts posted by IronJimbo
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18 minutes ago, Reddroast said:
I'm pretty sure I am the biggest hater here. ( I'm still not the biggest hater I know that goes to my twin. He thinks James Cameron has 0 good movies and is a complete hack.) I saw it coming years away.
I think A3 will drop domestically. But rise overseas
Yeah the America market is sad but conditions on track to be much much better for Dec 2025 than they were for Dec 2022. So even if the interest is less for this movie in America, which I don't think it would be, it could still outgross A2.
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When trying to use A2 as a metric for prediction for A3's box office potential we need to be mindful of the limiting factors in play in December 2022.
North America and Europe were still recovering from Covid at the time and many people were still too scared to go to the cinema, probably looking around a 20-30% decrease in attendance in these Markets.
Then A2's potential biggest market in China was knee-capped completely and made just a portion of what it could have.In a non-covid timeline the sky was the limit, who knows maybe the 3 billies would have been hit (I think so).
It's logical to conclude that the market at the time of A2's release shaved off hundreds of millions of dollars, even the biggest Avatar hater who is literate in box office will agree on that.
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17 minutes ago, ando said:
Missing a potential $10M in Russia definitely hurts. Add that plus China and Japan if they debuted same time as everyone else and we would have been looking at $135M+
avatar 2 missing 500m plus from russia + china hurts also why do you have to remind me
So how are we thinking this movie will do?
Been hearing $600-650m-
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Avatar 2 will fail because there's no nostaglia.
Avatar 3 will fail because the nostaglia factor Avatar 2 had is gone.
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Ok everyone, i've been away chrunching the numbers for months. I've had a multiple other data scientists look over my calculations and methods and we've all come to agreement the projections are the most accurate we can have.
Avatar 3: 3 billie
Avatar 4: 4 billie
Avatar 5: 5 billieAvatar 6: 6 billie
Avatar 7: 7 billie
I will not be releasing the caluclations, they are proprietary
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12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
It would be really sad if JC's entire career post Titanic is Avatar and sequels. But that seems to be the reality. Hopefully Avatar sequel BO keep shrinking with every new one and so he loses interest by A4 🙂
It's almost like you hate box office or something?! Avatar films are the biggest box office films of all time... perhaps consider arthousetheory.com
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4 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:
Brother, this aint reaching $60M.
wait how much is it making, I just google The Marvels box office and read the 1st article
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Cinema doing so poorly really puts into perspective that 2.3b that Avatar 2 made huh, 3 billies was robbed by pandemic
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24 minutes ago, vafrow said:
A critics job is to watch a film and offer their opinion of the film. Not to predict the box office, nor to predict how others may feel about it.
Well then rotten tomatoes is the problem.
If critics opinions are unique and only meant to be their opinion and not predicting how others feel, why does rotten tomatoes aggregate them?
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love seeing critics get exposed
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24 minutes ago, Eric Creed said:
Dude, I like those movies too, but they aren't "prestige cinema" by any stretch of the imagination. They're just fun, well-made toy commercials that got hyped up and are popular because of nostalgia and flashy spectacle. They aren't highbrow features for intellectuals and aren't any different from the design and appeal of those Marvel pieces people are trying to shade. Those movies just executed it better.
If anything, people are more averse and appalled than ever to actual prestige cinema judging by the godawful numbers of Fabelmans and The Northman.
Avatar 2 is about to make 2.3 billies
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1 hour ago, Eric Bear said:
Moderation
@IronJimbo This "Disney doesn't actually own Avatar" nonsense isn't funny anymore. I don't care what "evidence" you have. It always derails threads and starts pointless flame wars and we don't need this energy. Please stop with this.
There's no 'evidence' eitherway you should know. I accept you find it pointless and this is your land (shout out to jake sully) so I won't bring it up anymore.
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9 minutes ago, Willowra said:
If Marvel makes the AM4 and if they make it well, it will still do only 500M, and people will still call it a flop. Do you know why? Because sites like Deadline and Variety will give a random budget figure of 200 or 250 million without having any idea of what the actual budget is.
People made up a fake $2b break even point for Avatar 2, so they could flame it even if it did well. Didn't matter though cos it makes 2.3 billies lmao
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8 minutes ago, Willowra said:
Mickey owns the avatar. Its creator got sprinkles worth $90M; the food worth $1B has already been eaten by the greedy mouse.
Mickey does not own Avatar
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7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:
What's small? How much?
To Mickey, a very greedy mouse, anything less than everything he considers small. Mickey wishes he owned Avatar and wasn't just the delivery boy
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1 minute ago, grey ghost said:
Mickey Laughing
Mickey cheesed off they he getting a small cut, Mickey much prefer Marvel or Star Wars to do well
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7 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:
MCU crumbling
Avatar Thriving
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6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
I have to say that Marvel have had some run churning out multiple movies every year off their factory production line since 2008, and its only now 15 years later that its starting to look like superhero fatigue is kicking in with the GA.
Even then, their films are probably still going to be making big groses for years to come.
I personaly thought fatigue would of kicked ina few years ago already. Marvel have done well.
As soon as they lost Iron Man and Captain America after Endgame's massive peak, the only way was down from there.
I wonder if Marvel's business model and strategy of staying as a main interest was annihilated by Covid. Think about it, people had been getting 4 movies a year or whatever for over half a decade. Then boom, everyone goes cold turkey for 18 months or whatever.
A lot of people just lost interest of that?
but yeah, the repetitive formula being overplayed for too long alongside of the loss of the main characters and also some mediocre movies was the killer
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they should use a literal Squirrel for Squirrel Girl, then they'll have some budget left for the VFX
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When you roll a snowball down a hill and it keeps getting bigger and bigger, but what's the opposite of that?
Whatever that is, is what seems to be happening to the MCU
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1 minute ago, Firepower said:
At this point ChatAI can do better writing, no kidding. And it's free.
not for long, the best AI will help further expand the wealth gap and only be available to the filthy rich
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18 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:
The battle to defend the 70% drop (>$31.8m) is gonna go down to the wire this weekend!
To join the >70% Drop Gang like this post!
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12 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:
Those are some wild Friday projections, lmao. Man
lmao-man 3
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1 minute ago, expensiveho said:
This should be Marvel's top priority. By far.
Wakanda Forever is the only film that has looked decent in so long. How do they plan on keep getting the "big screen spectacle" money if these movies end up looking a cheap (!) Spy Kids?
(+ we all know audiences would be more forgiving overall)
Ant-man 3 cost $200m, where is that budget going?
Avatar: Fire and Ash | December 19, 2025 | RIP Jon Landau
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Also Avatar 2 opened in America with $134m on it's OW.
Avatar 3 should open more like a sequel and then ride that high.