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acetabulum7

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    Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by acetabulum7

    2018 is more likely. Lotta infrastructure work that needs to be done.

    True. It took 5 years to build Cars Land (two planning, 3 constructing), yes with other California Adventures expansions at the same time, but all totaled the same amount of acres that Toy Story will have. I'm thinking closer to 2020 for this and Star Wars Land.

    • Like 1

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by acetabulum7

    BOM does lump in undocumented re-releases for a lot of the pre-1982 stuff. Cinema Treasures' anniversary retrospective articles for some films sometimes have first-run grosses - for example, I was able to get Empire's first-run total, excluding the undocumented 1981 reissue.

    Star Wars' first run was $221.3m. Empire's first run was $181.4m.

    Those numbers respectively adjust to $806m and $548m. So the drop from first run to first run would actually be $258m. Actually less of a drop than from Menace to Clones or JP to TLW.

    Cinema Treasures listed Jaws' first run gross as $192m. That adjusts to $761m. The $77.7m first-run total for Jaws 2 listed on BOM adjusts to $270m. So its drop would be $491m. Still absolutely massive.

    Exorcist and Godfather, not sure. Exorcist II was a dud, so even if the adjusted drop without re-releases isn't $726m, it could well be bigger than Jaws. I just can't find first-run info for anything older than Jaws. (Generally, grosses weren't even reported prior to Jaws, only rentals, i.e. the amount of money paid back to the studio by the theaters.)

    And if you do count re-releases, each re-release has to be adjusted to its year. That makes it even more difficult.

    Comparing the pre-Special Edition adjusted figures of Star Wars and Empire, with each release adjusted by its year, gives us $1.14b for SW and $666m for ESB, or a drop of $474m. Adding the SEs gives us $1.384b for SW and $785m for ESB, for a drop of $599m - basically $600m total between the cumulative admissions of the two.

    I can't find the individual re-release figures for Jaws, so I will just take the $802.9m adjusted figure Cinema Treasures had in 2010, and adjust it to the current 2015 price from the average of 2009-10 (since the article was published in summer 2010) which will bring it to about $847m. BOM's cumulative for Jaws 2, so it adjusts to $292m. That gives it a drop of $565m when all is said and done.

    Again, can't figure out anything about Exorcist or Godfather. But either way, these were all huge drops, and yet most of them were still big successes and moneymakers (Exorcist II was the only one that was a dud). Jaws 2 fell from its mega blockbuster predecessor to just a big hit (though it was one of those rare occurrences at the time of a movie being a bigger hit OS than it was domestically). But Empire's first-run to first-run admissions drop, by my calculation, comes to 32%. And it wasn't considered a disappointment, because it was a mega hit, and a mega moneymaker (oh, and sequels did not ever increase from the original back then, or even come anywhere close, so there was no such expectation for it to fall short of).

    I'm rambling, but these stats are fun!

     

    Why are we even comparing movies from the 70's and 80's to movies today?

     

    This is why adjusted numbers don't work, especially for much older movies.  GWTW made $1.6B DOM; I'm pretty sure that's impossible to replicate today.

     

    You're correct that sequels back then hardly ever increased from the first.  They were never as popular back then as they are today.  Nowadays, maybe half the time they increase from the first.  If AoU stopped at $550M, it wouldn't be too bad, but stopping at $450M is disappointing.  Still a money maker, but still much lower than expected.

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by acetabulum7

    Superb post. You have completely destroyed their arguments  :)

     

    The selective adjustment/comparison of movies is hilarious. They will do whatever to tailor make their argument.

     

    Not that I put much faith in crtics receptions to judge a movie's quality, it is still funny to see these people claim 75% RT is horrible for TA2. But 72% for their movie is the god's gift to mankind.  :rofl:   :lol:

     

    He didn't destroy anything; just a bunch of random sarcastic lines.

     

    What if AoU was a better movie?  With no stupid fight that Saturday?  Can you or anyone predict that?  No.

     

    That's why it's a disappointment.  Because a lot of fans expect it to be the best movie in years, and maybe it was for some, but not for the majority.  At least, it wasn't as well-received as Avengers 1, and hence the drop in box office.

    • Like 1

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by acetabulum7

    The problem would be assuming that because some movies increased that means all movies will.   Especially if you use movies that weren't massive hits as a comparison.   That's going to result in a bad prediction....as we are seeing now.

     

    I never said "all" movies will.  It looked like you were saying all movies won't.  I was merely saying your basis is not true; some go up, some go down.

     

    Oh, and all of those movies I listed are massive hits.

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I don't see why rereleases shouldn't count for Star Wars or any other movie.   

     

    Okay, let's wait a few years after IW2, and then re-release AoU.  It's gonna add some more money.  Then wait another 10 years.  Re-release.  It's gonna make some more.  Therefore, it's an unfair estimate.  You have to compare their original runs.

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I'll restate this, adjust the drops to these movies and the drop makes perfect sense.  All of the following were phenomenon movies with highly successful sequels that still had massive drop offs.  (170m drop off looks very nice in comparison to a lot of these)

     

    Jaws to Jaws 2 - 770m drop adjusted

     

    The Exorcist to The Exorcist 2 - 726m drop adjusted

     

    Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back - 519m drop adjusted

     

    The Godfather to The Godfather Part 2 - 433m drop adjusted

     

    Jurassic Park to Lost World - 294m drop adjusted

     

    Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones - 267m drop adjusted

     

    Back to the Future to Back to the Future Part 2 - 241m drop adjusted

     

    Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 2 - 226m drop adjusted

     

    Home Alone to Home Alone 2 - 210m drop adjusted

     

    Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 - 197m drop adjusted

     

    Batman to Batman Returns - 193m drop adjusted

     

    Raiders of the Lost Ark to Temple of Doom - 193m drop adjusted

     

    Men in Black to Men in Black 2 - 177m drop adjusted

     

    Rocky to Rock 2 - 170m drop adjusted

     

    Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 - 160m drop adjusted

     

    Superman to Superman 2 - 149m drop adjusted

     

    The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises - 135m drop adjusted

     

    Sorceror's Stone to Chamber of Secrets - 89m drop adjusted

     

    Transformers 2 to Transformers 3 - 79m drop adjusted

     

    Spider-Man to Spider-Man 2 - 76m drop adjusted

     

     

    Only 3 didn't drop at least 100m and out of those only Spider-Man adjusts to over 500m

     

    You need to eliminate all the part 2 to part 3 movies.

     

    Next, you need to take their original grosses, not with all the re-releases (Star Wars).

     

    Also, most of these part 2 movies didn't have the same hype going in.

     

    There are plenty of other movies had had increases:

     

    Shrek 1 to Shrek 2

     

    Pirates 1 to Pirates 2

     

    CA 1 to CA 2

     

    Thor 1 to Thor 2

     

    Transformers 1 to Transformers 2

     

    Just off the top of my head.

    • Like 2

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Slightly lower than I was expecting based on the 10% above IM3 tracking so far. But decent number nonetheless.

    21.3

    34.2 (+60%)

    23.9 (-30%)

    79.5M 2nd weekend. (+10% of IM3's 2nd weekend)

    Would be the first summer opener in the past 6 years to earn less on the 2nd weekend than it did on its opening day (since X-Men Origins: Wolverine)

    If the 10% of IM3 continues through its run, we are looking at a 448-450M finish.

    Well that would be a very disappointing number. Almost a $200M drop. WOW.

    What went wrong?

    Still profitable, but after all they spent, it's not that great for supposedly the biggest tentpole movie in 3 years.

    Oh well, win some, lose some. :/

    AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I think history has just proven it was crazy to predict a record OW.   Because it didn't happen.   The fact that most people predicted it makes it even more crazy.   We are talking about people who are supposed to be good at looking at every factor on box office and most people missed several key factors.   In hindsight...it was a crazy prediction.

     

    The novelty factor was ignored for TA and the experts were wrong because of that.    So instead of using that knowledge, the experts ignored it AGAIN.   And shouldn't box office experts be able to factor in the glut of sporting events?   All of that was known going into the weekend.   All predictions for breaking the record were based on mistakes by the predictors.   That sounds like the basis for a crazy prediction to me!   ;)

     

    Agreed.   The Avengers model isn't like other franchises.    That's why predictions based on other franchises have thus far failed 100% of the time.

     

    The problem is, the fight wasn't even finalized until a few weeks ago.  Yes, there were rumbling rumors for months, but nothing was for sure, and most people don't automatically backtrack their numbers for something nobody really knows for sure how much effect it would have.

     

    The high predicts were also based on hopefully insanely good WOM, like the first one had.

     

    Without the fight (plus Kentucky Derby, plus Spurs/Clips Game 7), plus better WOM, it's not a crazy prediction to believe it would break the record at all.

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