pieman
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Posts posted by pieman
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I wouldn't say Pi because it got the DGA, BAFTA, PGA, and GG.I wouldn't say Django, mainly because even if it got snubbed at the DGAs and BAFTAs, it still has the CCA and the PGA and the GG.
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I'm starting to think Django.Well, noms are announced tommorrow night. That means time for surprises, and time for snubs!What film do you think will get snubbed?I'm thinking Life Of Pi.
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A moving and funny performance.Why should Maggie Smith get a nomination for Marigold? She just played a cranky old bitch who turns good in the end. Nothing great.
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A few Lincoln snubs are not shocking. It appeals more to an American audience. Britain doesn't have the same connection to Abraham Lincoln.This board must admit that Skyfall's failure to get even a Best Picture nomination doesn't bode well for it's Oscar chances. I only say that because this board seems quite adamant that it's getting in.
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Best Pic was the same as the DGA.Spielberg did not get in. Haneke and Tarantino did.
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Not as key with 5 nominees. Regardless, it still would get plenty of #1 votes. Like Argo, it's a crowd-pleaser that everyone likes. Pi is perhaps more divisive and doesn't satisfy actors. If SLP gets editing and direction we can assume it's in the 5 right?But it doesn't invoke lots of passion the way that Les Mis or ZDT will and ergo not too many #1 votes which are key.
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I don't know how to describe it but that type of movie (SLP) has to be included in the best picture line-up. There is a large chunk of the Academy that it satisfies, particularly the actors and writers.Pi is much more of a passion movie than SLP. In the traditional BP 5 maybe it might be SLP, but if we take the top 5 as they are voted upon right now I have no doubt it'd be Pi.
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It would be SLP, there needs to be a space for the human drama/comedy. Pi doesn't seem to have much heat behind it, a typical also-ran.Probably Pi.
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I thought the nominating committee were able to see ZDT but not Django.I think it's only fair to add ZDT into the mix, since SAG's exposure to it was apparently limited.
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In theory it is a three-horse race between the films that managed to score in all eligible guild awards.Lincoln, Les Miz and Argo. Silver Linings was close but missed DGA.
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Trash? They were marvellous films.With the 5% system there just HAVE to be surprises in this category. I wonder what they will be. Maybe a high profile snub. Django? A below the radar film will almost definately make it. The Impossible?Argo vs Lincoln. It's a two horse race, ZDT isn't as loved as those two, plus Bigelow recently won. Les Mis and Pi should be lucky to be nominated, both trash. Silver Linings can spoil in a few categories, but it's not in the BP race. Any way I look at it, it's Lincoln vs Argo.
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Finally saw Les Miz and wow, it was great. Surprised critics were so cynical about it. It's not out of this race just yet but I think it may be too polarizing for the win. However, I think the ball is in Lincoln's court with Argo and Silver Linings as close competitors (the 2 films everyone seems to love).
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Argo has a strong chance to win, however ZDT does not. I wish it was the other way around though, ZDT is a far superior film.
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I don't even think it's a number 2 or 3 choice.It doesn't need 300 member of the Academy. It needs 1% of the actual number one votes of members who vote to stay alive. Then if it reaches 5% through redistribution it's through.
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A supporting actor nod isn't very indicative of Best Picture support (especially since SAG hadn't seen Django yet). Several blockbusters have been nominated for a PGA award and haven't gone on to the Oscars, perhaps because of the different voting system they use. And of course the BAFTA's will go for Skyfall but I don't think that will improve it's chances for Best Picture.Meanwhile, having seen Django I'm really hoping it gets several nods, especially BP. It looks very likely at the moment but I'm somewhat afraid of it pulling a Dragon Tattoo on us.I don`t know why people are so sceptical about Skyfall. The movie obviously has bigger support among guilds (Bardem`s SAG, PGA) than expected and it`s going to get nominated for major BAFTAs. Plus Oscars will celebrate Bond`s 50th Anniversary. Now lets hope that Brit block will rally up in support instead of splitting votes with fuckin Marigold Hotel.
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Does anyone else think that Oscars don't affect box office that much anymore?
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1. Lincoln2. Les Miserables3. Silver Linings Playbook4. Argo5. Zero Dark Thirty6. Life of Pi7. Django Unchained8. Beasts of the Southern Wild---------------------------------------9. Moonrise Kingdom10. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel11. The Impossible12. Amour13. Skyfall14. The Master15. Flight
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Truly depressing and disheartening that such a vile, nasty piece of work can sell so many tickets.
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Rise of the Guardians has taken the route of every other mid-December Dreamworks release in Australia. It did well but got booted out of theatres within 2 weeks due to the crowded Boxing Day-New Year's period.
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Where does Castle Towers rank in Australia?
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It's not a 'number one' film. There is also no such thing as the blockbuster spot.Guild awards decide Oscar night. Skyfall got nom for BP at the PGA's, and it should claim the blockbuster spot this year.
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NO WAY Skyfall gets in. It is not happening within this system nor should it.
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Film with a tragic subject matter that doesn't appear in the guilds but has enough passionate support to get it through.My OSCAR nomination predictions for 2012http://rileymovieblog.wordpress.comHow does the impossible relate to ELIC? It has a 79% RT and a best actress nominee contender.
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Yes, it is a good film but if there is an EL&IC lurking this year I think it will be The Impossible.I still think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close took too much crap last year. It wasn't a great movie, but there are worse movies that have been in the conversation for Best Picture.I wonder if there's an Extremely Loud type lurking this year. Maybe Flight? I do think this year is more competitive than last, but if voters are going to go for something that has a clear emotional message and delivers it quite loudly, Flight could be their guy. (And I say this as someone who liked that film a whole lot.) I highly doubt it will happen, but then, none of us thought Extremely Loud had a snowball's chance in hell of making the cut last year, so...
2012 Best Picture Thread
in And The Winner Is...
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Final Prediction:ArgoBeasts of the Southern WildDjango UnchainedLes MiserablesLife of PiLincolnSilver Linings PlaybookZero Dark Thirtywith Amour and Moonrise Kingdom as possible spoilers