pieman
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Posts posted by pieman
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Gravity won't win, matter of fact I think it has zero chance of winning.
Yeah, Cuaron might win (it's 50/50 with McQueen) but the film is such an anti-Academy movie.
If the Academy is scared of 12 Years a Slave then American Hustle could win because there aren't really any viable alternatives. It's a very weak year (perhaps divisive is a more accurate word) and I don't think the Academy really know what to do with the films in contention.
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thankfully not everyone
Almost lost hope that TWR can win
Now its probably 99% Frozen yeah
I think it's a lock at this point. The huge box office, lack of competition... etc.
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Gravity will fall back just like Avatar did, I see American Hustle pulling a The Departed & shocking 12 Years a Slave. Anyone else with me?
I hope so. It's the best of those three and I don't think any of them are that great.
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Is there any hope Frozen outgrosses Despicable Me 2?
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Don't worry. I guarantee that there will be another Disney animated musical released in the next 2-3 years (Giants perhaps), particularly after these amazing numbers. They would be insane not to, and Disney love money enough to milk the genre for everything it's got.
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Wolf of Wall Street is the best film of the year.
The rest can fight for runner up.
It will probably get nominated but has no chance at actually winning.
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Where is Man of Steel, one of the worst films I've seen in a while.
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I think the only reason Frozen is winning (a movie that everyone on this forum seems to think is the best thing since sliced bread) is because it is a very weak year. I mean, what other Best Animated Film winners could it have beaten in any other year? Happy Feet maybe? That's about it.
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12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Nebraska
Saving Mr Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
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Ah, Philomena. Not happening in BP. There are like 12 films with a better chance.
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The Wolf of Wall Street doesn't have a chance. Gravity can't win because it's so out of step with the Academy's more traditional taste and really lacks any greater subtext or depth.
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There's always lots of movies opening on Boxing Day, last year it was The Hobbit, Wreck-it Ralph, Les Miserables and Parental Guidance.
It's true, there is space for a ton of movies on boxing day. They always do very well.
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This is a tough category to predict
The 2 sure things are Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron.
The other 2 very likely nominees are David O Russell and Paul Greengrass (I don't see these as locks at all)
So that leaves an open 5th slot which could go to the Coens, Payne, Scorsese, Jonze, or Allen
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first off, quality of the movie has nothing to do with visual effects and also critical and commercial flop The Lone Ranger is on that shortlist
I think it plays some role (and as a side note I maintain that despite it's problems, TLR was a better movie than MOS). But out of that shortlist, there aren't many that I would replace it with based on VFX alone. Maybe WWZ or Thor 2?
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People just hated Man of Steel, and rightly so.
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Nominations in 6 days. I'll throw out an ensemble prediction
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave
I'm in total agreement. August, AH and The Butler have the best ensembles. 12 Years and SMB are strong BP contenders that will be carried through based on their buzz and overall support.
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Philomena is in, because Judi will be in the mix for Best Actress.
No. It doesn't work like that.
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The Wind Rises wins it's second prize. This thing isn't locked up.
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LOL
Would you say the same if 12 years was the film chosen? Fact: 12 years a slave is not the only strong candidate this year. And I'm glad it's not.
Funny, because some were already calling 12YAS the obvious BP winner in March.
Right now, AH, 12YAS are slightly ahead of the rest, but Saving Mr Banks, Inside Llewyn, WOWS, or Philomena could still sneak in.
12YAS is still a strong candidate and it was only declared the frontrunner in late August.
Philomena has no chance.
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Well shit, could American Hustle actually pull an Argo and win?
The answer is 'probably not' but anyway, since when has an NYFCC win indicated an Oscar win? It didn't work for ZDT or TSN.
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Consider this shit.
Shit is an appropriate word for James Franco's performance
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A "traditional Disney musical" was nominated for Best Picture in 1991. The fact that Frozen is such wouldn't hurt it.
The Academy has changed a lot since 1991.
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Considering how Brave won last year, I'm not sure how much the Princess label really makes a difference. The Wind Rises could still be a spoiler, though.
But Brave was a Pixar film.
A film like Frozen has never won before - a rather traditional Disney musical, it may not be sophisticated enough for the Academy.
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After seeing most of this year's features:
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Croods (DM2 could sneak in instead, though)
I'm thinking The Wind Rises will take the Oscar for being Miyazaki's final film, and this year being extremely weak.
I agree with this list, DM2 could sneak by but it would be an incredibly undeserving and one of the poorest films ever nominated for animated feature.
I also agree that Frozen isn't a total lock just yet. It sounds silly but the Academy may have a hard time taking it seriously because it's been slapped with the 'princess label' and visually, is very cartoony - a style that traditionally hasn't sat well with the Academy when Pixar isn't involved. The Wind Rises is the only alternative, particularly if they're feeling sentimental.
2013 Best Picture Thread
in And The Winner Is...
Posted
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street