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Joel M

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Posts posted by Joel M

  1. Old OS beasts have a huge disadvantage with today films. And today films will have a huge disadvantage with films released within 5-10 years, when every big releases will make usually 600-700 million just in China. I said this previously but let's insist: let's say from now DOM+OS without China+China to compare fairly with old movies.

     

    This is pointless

     

    If you exclude now China to compare fairly with HP7 or Dark Knight then you have to exclude Russia and most of Latin America to compare those movies to Lotr and the first HP and then exclude even more countries to compare fairly lotr and HP1 to Jurrasic Park and ID4 and so on.

  2. I think it's only dead if you just take the narrow definition of rom com namely the blueprint that When Harry met Sally created which dominated until the mid 00s. I guess when we think about rom coms we still picture Ryan, Roberts, Bullock, Whitherspoon etc vehicles of the 90s and 00s because the were so big, but there are still rom coms getting made, even if they 're a little different from the When Harry met Sally formula just like they were before 1989. Certainly Silver Linings is a rom com and I guess Aloha will also be, even if they have a male lead. Indie stuff like 500 days of Summer and Two Night Stand are rom coms and I would also argue a big franchise like 50 shades of grey is pretty close to the genre. I know it's typically "romantic drama" but is more angsty and playfull than dramatic, it has a lot more in common with Pretty Woman than it has with Notebook or other romantic dramas.

    • Like 2
  3. I don't understand comments like this.

    The Phantom Menace adjusts to 750 DOM and if you take the same % 883 OS. That alone is 1.6 WW.

    This will have 3D and IMAX and China.

    Do you really think this will do less then PM?

    Does anyone ever look at the history of a franchise before making predictions?

    So you think it will match the most anticipated movie in history just like that, easily?

    • Like 3
  4. FF6 did around 2 billion yen in Japan which equals to $16.5M in today's currency. FF7 could increase but it could be getting the leftovers in terms of big screens since two of the biggest local movies of the year are opening the following day.

     

    F&F in Japan

     

    2F2F - $6,5M

    Tokyo Drift - $8,3M

    FF4 - $10,2M

    FF5 - $17,7M

    FF6 - $20,1M

     

    Considering that it exploded in other markets that Fast6 had stayed flat, how probable it is having another big increase in Japan and going over $30M?

  5. Reasonable low end to me looks like 900.  High end possibly up to 1075.  You can say Paul Walker was a factor on the domestic side, but overseas it's just good marketing and a movie that really delivers blockbuster spectacle and fun.

     

    He's a factor overseas too. Fast 6 barely increased or stayed flat over fast5 in established markets like France, Germany, Italy, Australia etc. Furious 7 has already blown past fast6 in those countries in just 10 days. 

     

    And even in China the huge numbers outweight the market's growth. Transformers went from 37M in '07 to 65M in '09 to 165M in '11 to 300M+ in '14. That's a hugely loved franchise getting advantage of a market's rapid growth and doubling the previous gross every 2-3 years.

     

    Fast and Furious went from 65M in '13 to 68M OD and 250-300M in '15. That's not just because it's a well marketed spectacle.

    • Like 2
  6. The real question will be what kinds of legs will FF7 have. I remember FF6 being very front-loaded.

     

    I checked and the only movies in the top 10 since 2010 with under 30% drop on Easter Sunday was Heaven is for Real and God's Not Dead last year (duhh).

     

    But that doesn't say much since no other movie has done half of 147 mil on eastern weekend. It might just be an effect of the huge opening and it drops big next week like the previous movies. On the other hands people have strong feelings about movies that make them cry in the finale. I hope it's the latter.

    • Like 2
  7. 7. 2 fast 2 furious: I like Walker, Tyrese, Ludachris and Yuko in this, Eva Mendes is probably the hottest presence in the entire franchise but the movie is mediocre at best. It has more and much lengthier race scenes than the first just to cover the fact that everything that happens is not interesting.

     

    6.Fast and Furious: It has a great opening scene and a great final act (even with all the wonky CGI) but between them it's not much better than 2fast. Also because of what happens with letty is the most dour movie of the franchise.

     

    5.Fast & Furious 6: It has spectacular action set pieces, many fun moments but it has too much plot and the final act is the weakest of the movie which is always underwhelming. Still a fine movie though.

     

    4.Furious 7: Pretty much the same pros and cons as 6, and maybe the cons are even more noticeable this time, but the last 5 minutes are unbelievable.  I was expecting something touching for finale but it easily surpassed my expectations. Although it's the only one I haven't watched a second time, so will see how it holds up.

     

    3.The Fast and the Furious - Tokyo Drift: The only one I haven't watched in a theater, because like many I thought of it as uneccesary at the time. Every time I am watching it though, I'm pretty sure if you CGI an actor with even an ounce of screen presence it automatically becomes a contender for best of the franchise even with no Vin, Paul and co. The giant black hole that is Lucas Black and his "castrated McConaughey" voice definately hurts it, but the rest of the movie is so good, it manages to survive him. 

     

    2.The Fast and the Furious: I loved it when I was 14 and I love it even more now in my late 20s. It's a great b-movie and by the time Brian gives Dom his car keys to escape, it has totally earned its "Point Break rip-off" concept.

     

    1.Fast Five: Not much to say about this. It's easily no1 for me and one of the best action/heist films of the last 15 years.

  8. It's def below 1 and 5, but it's very good.

     

    I was assuming that Paul Walker would either have a much smaller part on the main story and a nice final scene in the beach house or it would be really weird and possibly embarrasing if they insisted to include him more with tons of stunt doubles scenes and CGI.  I don't know how much of his performance is his and how much is post production and stunts but they did a hell of a job. I guess it's something like twin Armie Hammer in Social Network, if you reaally just focus on it you might recognize some scenes that are touched digitally but if you just watching the movie the effect is seamless. And the movie is much less enseble and much more Vin-Paul than the previous two, I didn't expected that at all.

     

    As for the last scene, it was perfect. They couldn't have done it better.

    • Like 1
  9. It might have been a viable idea if Citizenfour didn't existed. That documentary isn't talking heads recalling past events and explaining to us how all this story happened. 2/3 of it, is footage of how it happened, when it happened with the man himself explaining what he did the exact moment he did it. What is the catch of the UNTOLD story? Snowden saving files in usb disk and living in russia with his girlfriend. Because all the important parts of this story are already captured on camera.

  10. I think it might feel that way because both Hobbit 3 and transformers 4 felt a lot more like POTC4 and the last Ice Age sequel. There were A LOT of people around the world that wanted to see them turning them into huge hits, but outside of them no one gave a shit, they came and went without notice. In contrast Transformers 3 and the first Hobbit weren't exactly zeitgeist conquering hits but they had some buzz. If you told someone who doesn't follow boxoffice that they were amongst the biggest wordwide hits of their year, they would say "of course they are". If you tell them Transformers4 and Hobbit3 were the biggest hits of 2014 they would go "huh, really?". But a billion dollars is a billion dollars. It just proves that today especially worldwide, an established brand and a huge fanbase is more important than all the buzz in the world.

  11. Sadly this is Wachowski's weakest movie alongside Matrix Revolutions but it doesn't deserve the hate it's getting from critics. It's just an easy target for mockery because of how insane it is and because it is a huge bomb financially. The biggest problem of the movie for me was how much it feels plotwise like a trilogy compressed in 2 hours. They movie has no breathing room, the plot is just too much and it suffocates the entire movie especially in the middle part after they leave earth. The other problem was Mila Kunis. She's a good actress and no one expected her to give an oscar worthy performance here but she could be memorable or at least servicable. But she's just there, she can't make you care and she's the main character. 

     

    But even if it not quite works, I prefer this movie to many sci-fi extravaganzas because it is so personal. It's Wachowski from start to finish. Every frame is filled with their colour porn style, their tons of influences from every kitschy sci-fi ever made and their romantic approach to an anti-capitalistic message. And they are a lot of memorable scenes in the movie, my favorite being the bureaucracy in space bit. All the other cast members are game for this ridiculous story but no one more than Eddie Redmayne. He throws himself in this movie with reckless abandon and he is glorious. I don't think he deserves to win an oscar for the theory of everything but if he does, I'll cheer for him for what he did here and for how non self-serious he seems to be. He's a great actor.

     

    Although this is probably their weakest effort I had a great time in the theatre and I won't forget this movie after a few days. So I'm game for whatever Wachowskis are going to do after the obvious end of their big budget era. Also I don't get why people were rooting for this movie's failure as soon as they smelled blood. I'm not talking about here since this is a bo forum so it's pretty common to rooting for or against a movie's success. I'm talking about many members of the online press who spend their days writing thinkpieces about how hollywood never takes a risk and at the same time were so eager for this to bomb after the date switch because of the huge budget. Did they have Warner stocks? Warner is Warner and will be fine. 

     

    B-

    • Like 1
  12. If Silence is any good, good luck to the other movies. Talk about total Oscar bait. But that can backfire too if it's a mediocre film, though that seems unlikely coming from Scorsese.

     

    The story sounds very pro-christian but Scorsese is Scorsese. Last time he did a religious movie people threw molotov cocktails inside a theatre. Maybe he won't do a straight adaptation and twist it in a way that will piss off Christians.

    • Like 3
  13. I wonder how lopsided the domestic/OS ratio for AS will be.

     

    It has done 15 mil. in Italy in 2 weeks and will finish over 20. Which is more than every movie from 2014. So it will definatelly be many times bigger than every other Iraq/Afghanistan movie. Maybe even close to 50/50 ratio.

     

    I guess all it needed for those movies to stop bombing was enough time to pass from the actuals events. Every Iraq-war themed movie bombed for a decade and then ZDT and Lone Survivor became successes. And now American Sniper is the first huge hit of that genre in America and the first one that will do serious business in the rest of the world.

     

    I wonder how many years took for Vietnam movies to find success. Was it Deerhunter in '78? It won a lot of oscars but I don't know how succesfull it was at the boxoffice.

    • Like 2
  14. I didn't like the first 2 but both had one very good scene in them to make all the flatness go down easier. Also I was really hoping that when the trilogy ends and you can see the whole picture it might look better as a whole. I guess I was wrong because it was just as flat as the first two maybe even worse.

     

    The fact that the dragon story ends in the first 10 minutes makes the cliffhanger finale of the previous movie even more laughable and for the whole first hour the movie dragging its feet with everyone discussing the exact same things and Armitage who was one of the few characters I felt invested turned into parody in the first half playing the exact same beat over and over (and over and over) again. Second half was no improvement really because of the opressively flashy and "cool" CGI. I didn't have a problem with the more cartoun-y visual effects in the first movie, it fitted the trilogy's story which was more light and silly than lotr. But after 1000 battles and action sequences they start to look like a video game cut scene. The effects of this trilogy will age terribly. And of course just like the first two there were the useless time wasting side plots like Kate from Lost, the greedy coward from the lake town, Gandalf's side-quest to make as much lotr callbacks as he can. At last Legolas. Ugh. Everyone of his "cool" action scenes in the last two movies played like an overblown parody of his legitemately cool scene with the Elephant in Return of the King.

     

    I really can't wrap my head around how Peter Jackson went from Lotr and King Kong to this. When I first saw Lovely Bones (which was worse than every Hobbit movie) I thought it was just a misstep, a movie that didn't fit him well and he will bounce back sooner or later, but after 3 Hobbits I really don't know if he's capable anymore. 

     

    I know the trilogy was a big financial success and everyone involved is much more famous than they were 4 years ago, but that was pretty much guaranteed since the anouncement of the project. Creatively speaking, it feels to me like a dispiriting waste of money and talent.

     

    D+ for Battle of 5 Armies

     

    C- for the whole trilogy

    • Like 1
  15. from twitter: 

     

    Selma's Best Picture nomination is the Academy's "but I have a black friend!" :lol:  :lol: 

     

     

    For me even more annoying from the Lego, and Gone Girl snubs was Cooper over Gyllenhall. But it's just typical for the Academy.

     

    As long as Boyhood, Grand Budapest and Whiplash win everything they can I will be fine. I also hope Imitation Game is this year's American Hustle.

    • Like 6
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