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Joel M

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About Joel M

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  • Birthday 05/31/1986

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  1. Joel M

    Best Picture Predictions - 2018

    But it's not the same situation. Many people argued last year that despite almost all things pointing to a Shape of Water/3BB run for the win they will both lose to either Lady Bird or Get Out because LLL lost to Moonlight. A Star is Born has great reviews but not the over the top ones that LLL had and rubbed many people the wrong way. Also it doesn't fit the technical achievement that will sweep the techs anyway narrative that so many recent runner-ups had including LLL. Something might emerge that will beat it, no one knows shit about who's winning until the Guild awards anyway. But I don't see how Roma is gonna be the "Moonlight" to take it down. I don't see how a netflix movie from a Director already hugely rewarded just 5 years ago is gonna generate enough of a consesus to win.
  2. Japan will tell the tale. If it's treated like a must-see musical there it will be enough to push it over 400M. In South Korea the other big musical-friendly Asian market, it opened to much much lower numbers than LLL and Showman. But Japan has always been a weird market that does its own thing. Even if it doesn't though, 150M+ OS is more than double of what was expected from a country musical.
  3. It was a BIG thing for a time that isn't much of a selling point anymore. The Shrek cast and to a lesser extent the Madagascar cast I think were the big ones where the GA was hyper-aware who's voicing the characters in an animation and DW was putting them front and centre everywhere. I even remember press reporting on the huge salaries Diaz, Murphy and Mike Meyers were getting for Shrek 2, it was as if they were talking for a live action comedy where you could actually see the actors. Shark Tale was this trend stretched to extreme where the whole thing was what Will Smith, Jolie and De Niro would look like if they were fish. But it has died down a lot ever since Madagascar 2. Studios still put stars on animation to have something to talk about in the marketing, and the stars do it for an easy paycheck but hardly anyone cares that much. Even Sandra Bullock wasn't as front and centre on the Minions marketing as lesser stars than her were fifteen years ago.
  4. I always considered Slant magazine as the kings of ridiculous try hard movie hot takes.
  5. per imdb Lock Stock US release was March of '99, but it had already premiered in the UK and half of Europe in '98. I 've got 4 movies on my list that don't meet the North American release criteria, but @Slambros said it's ok if they were released in their country of origin in 1998.
  6. Really doubt all 3 of them will do that well, especially if they all stay with their current release dates.
  7. Do British movies also count if they premiered in the UK and other countries in 1998? Lock Stock and Wisdom of the Crocodiles are gonna be on my list if they are eligible.
  8. I hope it isn't just 1 minute of the camera slowly revealing the magic lamp.
  9. Could we do foreign movies that premiered at their country of origin in '98? pretty please? There's some foreign movies like Run Lola Run and Kirikou and the Sorceress that are being listed as 1998 movies everywhere. I understand why we 're going by US-release in recent years but 20 years ago? who cares? Many foreign movies were premiering 2-3 years after their release in the US back then.
  10. Joel M

    Best Picture Predictions - 2018

    I think both of those got upstaged by bigger and flashier stuff shortly after they got frontrunner status early in the season and especially during the final stretch when most of the blacklash happens people were busy taking down Gravity and American Hustle and the Revenant and even Big Short. ASIB's problem might be that none of the stuff that comes after it will be big enough to assume the target. Maybe if First Man truly broke out, but it looks like it 'll be a modest hit at best.

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