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raegr

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Posts posted by raegr

    The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

    I don’t know if it was ever gonna be shelved but most people had pretty low expectations for this. Once the trailer came out things changed a bit but ya no one was expecting much for this. I was hoping for an opening similar to black adam. 

    i honestly think it's probably gonna double that opening haha

    GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

     

    5 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

    It's a shame, this movie if it had come out  a year earlier would probably be looking at 175m OW and now through no fault of its own has to settle for ~120

    This was incredible. If this swapped with MoM or even Thor, it would have definitely crossed 200M imo. I think some of the other movies did a lot of damage, but I feel like this and a good Marvels movie will turn the tide

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    11 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

    Honestly, $500-600M is barely over flop territory for most blockbusters, even when we're talking about 5 years ago. GOTG is modestly popular stateside but rather weak overseas. GOTG2 made 863M out of 389M DOM and 470M OS; losing China + Russia and dropping in many OS markets (oh it will) already shave at least 150M off that total. I'm not saying that it cannot get to 500M domestic to make up for the OS loss but "easily" is definitely not the word to use.

     

    Captain Marvel was Endgame-powered the same way Black Panther was Infinity War-powered, without its quality and cultural impact. As we are seeing Wakanda Forever may struggle to 850-900M, The Marvels will have a hard time getting anywhere close to that.

    That's a great point. I honestly think we need to see the reception of these films and how they are received by critics/audiences before making any assumptions. If it gets Love and Thunder or Eternals style reviews, The Marvels will struggle to pass 750M imo 

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, Factcheck said:

    Neither Scarlet Witch, Yelena, nor Shuri will be in the big three. Their big new trio is Sam Captain America, Captain Marvel, and Doctor Strange. People need to get excited for these characters, not the ones you mentioned.

    I think we may be past the phase of a BIG THREE per say. I think we will branch off into different corners of the MCU where different ppl with have different characters they like. I think that's what's happening here. The Disney+ fans becoming insular and liking their fave shows, the BP fans supporting that, the thor fans supporting that. Marvel needs to find a way to bring these fans together again and I think Secret Wars will do that, but I think they're in a new experimental phase rn. They don't want to do another Phase 1, 2, 3; they're trying to reinvent themselves in the streaming era. So far it's had mixed results, but the brand is still strong i think 

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

     

     

    If they market GOTG3 as a pseudo-finale for these characters, we might get a nice boost. I can see anything from $375M to $500M domestically (with my target being $425M). GOTG has always been relatively weak OS for an MCU franchise. It'll probably do $350-400M on that front. 

    I think 375M to 425M is a safe bet. Especially with the special coming, it will definitely boost awareness of the IP for sure 

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

    I think Marvel also has a lead character problem. People had an emotional attachment to RDJ and Chris Evans and Chadwick - I don't see that same investment for any of their leads now except Tom as Spiderman. Yes, Ant-Man 3 and Captain Marvel and Shang-Chi and Strange will make money - but is it going to endure past opening weekend? WF has shown that as strong as your supporting characters are, you need your lead there to be the anchor. 

    Well, RDJ and Chris Evans weren't build over one movie. By the time the Avengers came out, RDJ was in three movies already. Shang Chi and the newer characters need time to grow and develop just like the OG Avengers did in Phase 1. Plus, Scarlett Witch is massively popular, Yelena has a huge following online, and so does Shuri. 

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, John Marston said:

    I don't think a gross in the 400s is that bad considering the star of the first being gone and franchise fatigue but its clear most were expecting more and I bet Disney themselves wanted 1 billion and another Best Picture nom

    I'm saying. Not everything is going to be a NWH or BP or Endgame. Those are Box Office CULTURAL events and anomalies for a reason. If they happened every year or a few times a year, they wouldn't special or impactful. It takes a lot of work to get the internet going and build a movement around a film. Especially in the age of streaming and other forms of media taking up people's attention (social media, video games, TV, streaming, etc.)

     

    it's very rare that a movie captures the cultural zeitgeist, much less a sequel an already popular movie. TDKR was successful but not as successful or as huge of an event as TDK because that was a cultural moment that's difficult to capture twice. TDKR was still WILDLY SUCCESSFUL. Another example is TFA, which was a HUGE event film followed by a still successful but less popular second one. I suspect the same thing will happen w Spider-Man 4 where it will still be massively successful but not make as much money as NWH because that kind of performance was rare in the first place. The first Black Panther was a lighting in a bottle. One of the first Black heroes on the screen + build up for Infinity War + great reception. All the stars (no pun intended) aligned for that film. WF is still great, but the film industry and movie landscape has changed now. Marvel is less scarce and streaming is more popular than ever. Some people may say that they'll just stream it 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

     

    Considering Season 3 GIF by Portlandia

    Omg? You think so?? 

     

    The first Cap marvel made 1.1B and 950M w/o China. At least 850M isn't completely far fetched for the sequel. Especially if it gets good reviews and with the inclusion of Ms. Marvel and Monica. 

     

    GOTG is wildly popular. Even moreso due to their appearances in IW and Endgame. So I think 850M isn't off the table. Especially considering the last one did 863M. Also, if they're able to market this as a proper send-off and create a sense of finality, it will do well. 

    Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

     

    $622M with China and Russia which AM3 will likely not have. Remove those two and we're down to $488M. I'd say a good target for AM3 is $550M with an exceptional target of $600M. 

     

    That's a fair point. 550M/600M is not a bad result. We'll have to see what the reviews are like and how important this is to the larger story but it looks fun. Not a whole lot of competition in Feb/March so it will be fine 

    • Like 1
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