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Arendelle Legion

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Posts posted by Arendelle Legion


  1. Tbf, I would put more emphasis on the “kind of” than the “pathetic,” and that doesn’t really come through via text. I’m not saying it’s actively bad PS, more that it’s hard to say based just on that tidbit of info, so it doesn’t affect my thinking much either way. That’s because of:

    low magnitude of competition for ticket sales on a weekday in these conditions

    lack of clarity about how many venues are currently PS vs will ultimately show it

    uncertainty about how well advertised the start of PS here is compared to a usual PS run

    uncertainty about how possible pent up demand, especially among big Nolan fans, after all these months and delays might skew the shape of the PS run for the first movie back
     

    Basically, “over 50%” doesn’t exactly impress me under the circumstances but my overall assessment is a big ?

    • Like 1

  2. 14 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

    It isn’t 50%, it is 60%, can’t you even read correctly? And it isn’t a pathetic number, if the B.O total is averaging $100k per day (considering its averaging about 250k-300k during the weekend per day, I think it’s a fair projection), then it means that Tenet did $150k on the first day alone, if it manages to keep this pace (which is highly unlikely since it will increase a lot as long more locations open), it would accumulate almost $2m from pre-sales alone, how exactly would it be a pathetic number? Do some math before talking shit.

     

    I know you’re a Disney stan and doesn’t give a fuck for cinemas, but at least try to not embarrass yourself.

    JFC, finally earned yourself an ignore with this uncalled for personal shit.
     

    and as for the actual numerical analysis, I guess it’s strong if you complete forget how first day PS works 🙃

    • Like 2

  3. 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    I think Top 2 or using rank is bit iffish.

     

    E.g. Number 2nd film in 2014 was Hunger Games 2 at $337mn, doesn't mean it would have done $540mn in 2019 or $678mn in 2018. 

    All-time ranks work much better than yearly. More volume means less variance and much less sensitive to “were there a lot of blockbusters that happened to release this year.”    
     

    But yeah, it’s not perfect, especially at the very top ranks since you again can have a big effect from very outlier runs. I’d be pretty comfortable to say that a movie which made, say #61 WW in its time (TWS for instance) would translate to about 61st now (BoRhap at 900M). But I definitely wouldn’t be comfortably saying that just because Potter made #2 it would be a 2.8B, or that Age of Ultron doing #5 means it would do 2B. An overly tight correspondence like that doesn’t work with the various historical quirks of the different times.
     

    There’s a lot of wiggle room here though. Putting Potter below 2B means a movie 2nd place in its time doing 6th place now, and I don’t think Endgame+Avatar+Titanic+TFA+IW are all historical outliers enough for that to make sense. There were some historically great runs for the time that HP1 did surpass after all.

     


  4. Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B.    
     

    Also it was #2 WW. Ranks don’t translate perfectly across decades but seeing as how even #5 nowadays is 2B+ I’ve gotta consider HP1’s performance a 2B+ analogue.

    • Like 1

  5. 7 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

     

     

     

     

     

    Well....

     

    45e8423b2bcb4a498a775f1bf2041874.jpg

     

     

     

     

     

     

    The 2000 in 24 hours is basically an accounting trick with time of day. E.g. if on Wednesday they report a lot at 1PM, Thu report a lot of the day by 11AM, the a substantial fraction of the 2-day total is in that 24 hour window.       
     

    We haven’t had a single day over 2000 from any source of data with a real daily reporting window (worldometers or covid19tracking, for instance). I wouldn’t be surprised if we do have a couple days where it happens, but the 7-day average isn’t going to get close so those comments you quoted were correct.

    • Thanks 1

  6. 5 hours ago, Hatebox said:

    Do they? Apart from maybe iPhones I struggle to think of many products whose demand isn't greatly determined by their price.

    Demand is determined by price, but usually a well chosen price from a profit perspective generates a lot of complaining from people who wish they were getting a bigger consumer surplus (or who are actually priced out) without implying that cheaper would have been a better decision.


  7. On 2/29/2020 at 11:00 AM, Madhuvan said:

    It may sound bit insensitive but India handled Coronavirus situation much better than other country. 

     

    It was very easy for the virus to spread in India but the government took proper measures from beginning. 

     

     

    I was reading through the early pages a bit, and... 😬    
     

    It’s interesting how little we knew about the virus even a fair bit after it started spreading. US gov would recommend against mask wearing for quite a while after this.

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