Jump to content

htall90

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,569

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by htall90

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    A billion for a non-sequel animated feature is insane. Even The Lion King and Finding Nemo didn't get there after their respective re-releases.

     

    But it would have to break out big in both China and Japan...

    Both would of flown passed it thou adjusted for inflation.

    Thursday #s (1/9)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    So Frozen is finally descending the charts. Where will it end up this weekend? #4?

     

    Is the goal $350m?

     

    And just wow for AH. Almost 100m.

    And Leo the King is just holding court. Look at WOWS go.

     

    Saving Mr. Banks is having some incredible holds too.

    What frozen will be 2nd maybe even 1st this weekend again only lone survivor can beat it i think and should get well past $350 mil.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Your gigantic ranges are annoying, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't talk down on me as if I were a child. And I'd love to see where you got that 300+% 3D screens thing.

     

    Let's see some predictions from you, and some reasoning behind it.

     

    I predict Age of Ultron will do about 580/1200/1780 for the following reasons:

    -sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 620

    -a larger OW than seems likely, although with slightly weaker legs

    -now that the OS audience has been hooked on Marvel (look at IM3's 806 compared to Avengers' 895), I see at least a slight decrease in developed markets (similar to DOM), although a larger increase in developing markets that will make up for it

     

    I predict Avatar 2 will do about 600/1600/2200 for the following reasons:

    -Cameron

    -sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 760

    -there has never been a sequel to a biggest of all time movie that increased in a developed market, so I predict ~20% decreases in most major markets, and although the developing markets will increase, the 3D shares will be lower

    -building on that, the 3D craze that the original Avatar started is slowly dying, and by the time the sequel comes out (7 years), 3D may be even less appealing

    -building on that, the bigger the gap between installments, usually, the harder it is to match or surpass the original, unadjusted

     

    This isn't about one movie doing better than the other. I accessed both movies individually, and this is what I came up with. So I think your A2 beating AOU by 2.2B thing is bullshit.

     

    Let's see your argument.

    Good predictions But i think TA2 could increase in some develop markets as it was big but not huge in some markets and is very well loved like the UK for example.

     

    I think your Avatar 2 prediction is very good but i think drops in major develop will be harder like 30% or more but thanks to developing markets it will make a similar amount OS.

    BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    It should land very close to 100mil US$ (mind, that's Germany+Austria) and if it manages drops <50% it might still reach that mark. This weekend, there's virtually nothing important opening, but then we get Wolf of Wall Street, 47 Ronin, 12YaS, Anchorman2 which will all take small bites out of the Hobbit demo and especially screens - and as soon as the HFR screens are gone (which are usually the biggest), drops will become steeper.

    Still a great gross no matter what one of the few markets that it has done great business in.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    LOL Was talking in future tense as did not happen. Typo? Avatar/TA was off by 1.2B. No way Avatar 2 out grosses AOU by 2.2B.

    Yh to optimistic what would it be TA 2 $1.6 billion and Avatar 2 $3.8 billion? Can't see that i think avatar 2 will drop heavily in developed markets but thanks to  a bigger international market overall it will gross similar amount to the first OS and ww IMO.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept