whatsupdoc

These are based only on the awareness statistic. Folding in interest would make it more accurate. Also, something is also amiss with the analysis here because awareness and interest for IO2 is higher than GARFIELD. https://thequorum.com/awareness/ https://thequorum.com/interest/

Here's THE QUORUM's tracking: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/6WOFTR-04.05.24.pdf The Quorum has THE FALL GUY at $34M-$41M.

Presales are an important barometer. But keep in mind that presales appeal to a very specific avid consumer. They don't capture awareness and interest for more casual consumers or walk-ups. Also keep in mind that marketing campaigns don't begin in earnest until 21 days out, which, in some cases, can be after pre-sales begin. The money spent and the response to the campaign in the final 3 weeks can greatly impact the opening weekend forecast. More importantly, these are all tools in our toolbox. Survey tracking and pre-sale tracking should work to complement each other. It's not one or the other.

What's often lost in conversations about tracking is the fact that forecasts change. We offer our first forecast at 6 weeks out, but that numbers fluctuate from 6 weeks out to day of release based on the survey data. BARBIE and DUNE 2 are great examples. Interest in both films took off at about 3 weeks out, and their forecasts went up accordingly. There are times when the forecasts go down because the material isn't connecting or a film is struggling to gain interest from people outside the core audience. It's the same for folks here who track resales from the first day they go on sale through opening. The story changes. So why do we offer a forecast at 6 weeks if we know it can change? We do it because it serves as an important check for our studio clients. They can get a sense of whether the campaign is working or if adjustments have to be made.

Every quarter, The Quorum looks back to see how accurate our forecasts have been. We also measure our forecasts against others in the marketplace. The link below shows how The Quourm's forecasts stack up against BoxOfficePro. In some weeks, The Quorum is more accurate, and BOP is closer in other weeks. Across the entire quarter, The Quorum was slightly more precise when using a regression best-fit model. Though it's close. Here are The Quorum's correlations for 2024 to date. Correlation between AWARENESS and Opening Weekend: 82% Correlation between INTEREST and Opening Weekend: 75% Correlation between LOCATION and Opening Weekend: 82% Correlation between PAY and Opening Weekend: 75% You can see TQ vs. BOP here: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-03-at-12.19.26 AM.png The Quorum makes its initial box office projection at six weeks out. That forecasts changes over the six week journey to release. It's important to remember, that forecasts reflect a moment in time. They fluctuate up until the day of release.

The Quorum 6-Weeks out Film Tracking Report DUNE: PART 2: $70M - $79M (UP from last week) KUNG FU PANDA 4: $50M - $57M (FLAT) IMAGINARY: $18M - $22M (UP) ARTHUR THE KING: $11M - $14M (DOWN) LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $1M - $3M (FLAT) GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE: $50M - $57M (FLAT) IMMACULATE: $7M - $8M (FLAT) GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE: $54M - $61M (UP) THE FIRST OMEN: $16M - $19M (FLAT) MONKEY MAN: $9-$11 (UP) CIVIL WAR: $9M - $11M (NEW) See Full Reports Here: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Long-Lead-Film-Tracking-Grid-3.1.24.pdf

Here is The Quorum's latest take on DUNE. While awareness is a big piece of the puzzle, interest is also important. And interest in DUNE is spiking at the right time. The Quorum's official forecast will be published Friday morning, but with one more fielding to go, it looks like it will be above $70M. If the numbers go up in tomorrow's fielding, the forecast could go as high as $80M. Survey tracking has been around for decades. But The Quorum is the first to make it available to the general public. For many of you it's new, which means it may be hard to interpret or you might have some questions. If you do, please feel free to shoot us a note at hello@thequorum.com

THE QUORUM 6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report Opening Weekend Forecasts (all projections are for Friday - Sunday) DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $2M - $4M (UP from last week) ORDINARY ANGELS: $8M - $11M (UP) DUNE: PART TWO: $62M - $69M (UP) KUNG FU PANDA: $52M - $57M (UP) IMAGINARY: $16M - $19M (UP) ARTHUR THE KING: $13M - $16M (UP) LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $1M - $3M (FLAT) GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE: $50M - $57M (FLAT) IMMACULATE: $7M - $8M (FLAT) GODZILLA X KONG: $50M - $57M (UP) THE FIRST OMEN: $16M - $19M (NEW) MONKEY MAN: $8M - $9M (NEW) See the full report her: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.23.24.pdf

THE QUORUM 6-WEEK OUT FILM TRACKING REPORT Opening weekend forecast are for Friday-Sunday period ONLY. ARGYLLE: $13M - $16M (down from last week) LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $6M - $8M (flat) BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $20M - $23M (flat) MADAME WEB: $20M - $25M (flat) DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $3M - $5M (down) ORDINARY ANGELS: $6M - $9M (flat) DUNE: PART TWO: $50M - $57M (up) KUNG FU PANDA: $50M - $57M (up) IMAGINARY: $16M - $19M (down) ARTHUR THE KING: $13M - $16M (NEW) LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $2M - $4M (NEW) SEE FULL REPORT HERE: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.02.24.pdf

The Quorum 6 Weeks Out Film Tracking Report Opening weekend projects. All numbers are for the FSS period even for films opening on Wednesday or extending to Monday. ARGYLLE: $15M - $18M (flat from last week) LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $6M - $8M (up) BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $20M - $23M (up) MADAME WEB: $20M - $25MM (up) DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $4M - $6M (flat) ORDINARY ANGELS: $6M - $9M (down) DUNE: PART TWO: $46M - $53M (up) KUNG FU PANDA 4: $46M - $53M (NEW) IMAGINARY: $18M - $22M (NEW) FULL REPORT HERE: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/6WOFTR-01.26.24.pdf

The Quorum 6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report Opening Weekend Forecasts: ISS: $3M - $5M (flat) ARGYLLE: $15M - $18M (up) LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $5M - $7M (flat) BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $18M - $21M FSS ONLY (flat) MADAME WEB: $17M - $22M FSS ONLY (flat) DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $4M - $6M (down) ORDINARY ANGELS: $8M - $11M (up) DUNE: PART TWO: $42M - $49M (NEW) https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/6WOFTR-01.19.24.pdf

On the plus side, ARGYLLE registered 1% unaided awareness (page 3 of attachment) this week, which is not nothing for a film 7 weeks out. It is beginning to resonate with a small group of people. https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/6WOFTR-12.15.23.pdf

THE QUORUM 6-Week Out Film Tracking Report Opening Weekend Projections: WONKA: $31M - $36M (Up) ANYONE BUT YOU: $3M - $5M (Up) AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM: $$33M - $38M (Down) THE IRON CLAW: $4M - $6M (Flat) MIGRATION: $14M - $17M (Up) THE BOYS IN THE BOAT: $2M - $4M (Flat - X-Mas Day Only) THE COLOR PURPLE: $11M - $12M (Up - X-Mas Day Only) FERRARI: $3M - $5M (Up - X-MAs Day Only) NIGHT SWIM: $12M - $15M (Up) THE BEEKEEPER: $13M - $16M (Flat) THE BOOK OF CLARENCE: $5M - $7M (Flat) MEAN GIRLS: $18M- $21M (Flat) I.S.S.: $2M- $4M (Flat) https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/6WOFTR-12.15.23.pdf

The Quorum 6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report Projections: THE BOY AND THE HERON: $9M - $12M (UP, assumes Wednesday fan event grosses are rolled in) WONKA: $29M - $33M (UP) ANYONE BUT YOU: $2M - $4M (FLAT, FSS only) AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM: $36M - $41M (FLAT, FSS only) THE IRON CLAW: $4M - $6M (FLAT, FSS only) MIGRATION: $12M - $15M (UP, FSS only) THE BOYS IN THE BOAT: $2M - $4M (FLAT, Christmas Day only) THE COLOR PURPLE: $9M - $10M (UP, Christmas Day only) FERRARI: $2M - $4M (FLAT, Christmas Day only) NIGHT SWIM: $10M - $13M (DOWN) THE BEEKEEPER: $13M - $16M (FLAT) THE BOOK OF CLARENCE $5M - $7M (FLAT) MEAN GIRLS: $18M - $21M (FLAT) I.S.S.: $2M - $4M (NEW)

The Quorum's Opening Weekend Projections: HUNGER GAMES: BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES: $45M - $54M (down from last week) NEXT GOAL WINS: $1M - $3M (flat) THANKSGIVING $8M - $10M (down) TROLLS BAND TOGETHER: $22M - $27M (down) NAPOLEON: $12M - $14M (FSS) (up) WISH: $33M - $38M (FSS) (down) SILENT NIGHT: $7M - $9M (down) BOY AND THE HERON: $2M - $4M (flat) WONKA: $24M - $27M (UP) ANYONE BUT YOU: $2M - $4M (flat) AQUAMAN 2: $35M - $44M (flat) THE IRON CLAW: $2M - $4M (flat) MIGRATION: $12M - $16M (down) BOYS IN THE BOAT: $3M - $5M (NEW) THE COLOR PURPLE: $16M - $19M (NEW) FERRARI: $5M - $7M (NEW)